Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 02.02.07

**onlooker** · 02-02-07, 12:21 AM

Ok, now its time to get February started in here.

**bigboydan** · 02-02-07, 11:59 AM

Lets get this month off to a strong start Jay

**Jay Edgar** · 02-02-07, 12:10 PM

Well at the moment we're supposed to be playing every game on the board.

So it may be a busy month, even though it's a short one.

**DrSlamm** · 02-02-07, 06:03 PM

jay so for example tonight the bucks are at around +715 would you still consider this a good play or is there some sort of injury information that isnt factored in?

sorry if these are stupid questions but i just started reading your threads.

Slamma

**Jay Edgar** · 02-02-07, 07:02 PM

DS no problem.

If the personnel tonight is different from that in recent games, that won't be reflected in the rating. The rating reflects performance over the last ten games and the scheduling situation (home/road, amount of rest) for tonight. If I tried to quantify for a new injury I'd just be making sh*t up.

I would say, though, that the bookmaker's line not only compensates but overcompensates for injury most of the time IMO. In the long run if you play the "injured" team you are going to get the best of it.

To more directly answer your question about the Bucks: the rating is a pretty accurate reflection of their play without Redd. They're awful, and I myself passed on them in Orlando even thought the system said play them (I only do that once in a while these days). But they are probably decent value at +715 as even the god-awful teams get one every once in a while -- enough to turn a modest profit, or so it seems.

**onlooker** · 02-02-07, 07:10 PM

Two games tonight straddle the 5% strike price. 76ers and Hawks. Some places they could be a play, and others they wouldnt.

**Jay Edgar** · 02-02-07, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Two games tonight straddle the 5% strike price. 76ers and Hawks. Some places they could be a play, and others they wouldnt.

Yup.
And we track them based on where they close (because that's the only manageable way to do it.) But if the system truly gives you an edge then obviously it makes sense to play these teams at the best possible price you can get.

(I have some Hawks at +117 and some Sixers at -120).

**Jay Edgar** · 02-03-07, 01:16 AM

Jay Edgar NBA, Saturday 02.03.07

GAP TEAM ATS ML
5 PHI LOSS -134
8 NOK WIN 100
8 NJ LOSS -100
9 IND WIN 100
9 SEA LOSS -100
13 BOS LOSS -100
13 MIL WIN -100
16 CHA LOSS -100
19 POR WIN -100

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Friday, 2-7, -5.34u
(NJ, IND, PHI, BOS, CHA, MIL, NOK, POR, SEA)
YTD 184-319, +57.78u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Friday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 274-222 (.552), +40.90u