Jay Edgar NBA, Thursday 02.01.07

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  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576

    #1
    Jay Edgar NBA, Thursday 02.01.07
    Will we see LeBron Thursday?

    I haven't read anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's on the "rest-the-toe-except-for-national-TV-games" plan.

    Or the more conservative version of that, which is the "rest-the-toe-except-for-ABC-games and-TNT-games-at-the-Super-Bowl-site-during-Super-Bowl-week" plan.

    =============================
    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Wednesday, 5-6, +2.31u
    (WAS, ATL, MIL, NJ, BOS, PHI, MEM, SEA, SAC, UTH, POR)
    YTD 182-312, +63.12u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Wednesday, 6-4-1, +1.80u
    YTD 270-217 (.554), +42.15u

    POWER RANKINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 PHX 64
    2 HOU 63
    3 DAL 62
    4 DET 62
    5 CHI 58
    6 MIA 56
    7 IND 56
    8 LAC 55
    9 WAS 54
    10 UTH 54
    11 SAN 54
    12 NJ 54
    13 NOK 51
    14 SAC 50
    15 CHA 49
    16 TOR 49
    17 NY 49
    18 MIN 49
    19 DEN 47
    20 PHI 47
    21 POR 47
    22 LAX 47
    23 ATL 46
    24 CLE 44
    25 MEM 44
    26 SEA 42
    27 GS 42
    28 ORL 42
    29 MIL 33
    30 BOS 33

    EDGAR LINES FOR 02.01.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    MIA 6.4/242 over CLE
    PHX 6.8/258 over SAN


    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    CLE +299, MIA -199
    SAN +322, PHX -211


    20%-OFF MARKER
    (This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

    CLE +855, MIA -108
    SAN +998, PHX -114
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 02-01-07, 01:08 AM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    I haven't heard anything on Lebron as of yet either Jay. I'll see what I can find out, and post it here for you though if I do though.
    Comment
    • Jay Edgar
      SBR MVP
      • 03-08-06
      • 1576

      #3
      Numbers complete for Thursday's mini-card.

      Also, here is the report for the calendar month of January.
      (It's pretty good.)

      GL


      ================================
      RESULTS FOR MONTH OF JANUARY

      MONEYLINE PLAYS

      5%-19% OFF
      51-80, +25.94u

      20%+ OFF
      13-37, -0.57u

      ALL PLAYS
      64-117, +25.42u


      POINTSPREAD PLAYS

      5%-19% OFF
      80-48 (.625) +29.60u

      20%+ OFF
      23-26 (.469) -4.30u

      ALL PLAYS
      103-74 (.582) +25.30u


      A great month.

      I'd be surprised (pleasantly!!) if the method kept up that kind of pace.

      New in January:
      ATS plays did as well as ML plays

      Continuing in January:
      The 20%+ plays struggled some more.

      ==============================
      Last edited by Jay Edgar; 02-01-07, 01:09 AM.
      Comment
      • bigboydan
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 08-10-05
        • 55420

        #4
        I think that spread pace will keep up till for a little bit longer. However you just always have to be cautious after the all-star break hits, because things seem to change for some reason.
        Comment
        • Jay Edgar
          SBR MVP
          • 03-08-06
          • 1576

          #5
          BBD, without looking it up (because I am tired) . . .

          I think we'd find that home teams had a very good month in January. As the season grinds teams down home court really means a lot, I think. There are more letdown games, and the huge majority of letdowns are by the road team.

          My method puts you on the home team a lot of the time. Based on what's actually happened in the NBA over the last several years, the method gives major credit to home court. More credit than the public and linemakers seem to want to give.
          Comment
          • bigboydan
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-10-05
            • 55420

            #6
            I hope you keep up this pace in February Jay.
            Comment
            • onlooker
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 36572

              #7
              That was one hell of a January Jay. I hope February is just as hot for you.
              Comment
              • onlooker
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 08-10-05
                • 36572

                #8
                Looks like a day off for this. The two games don't qualify tonight. Good luck tomorrow.
                Comment
                • trustbutverify
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 01-12-07
                  • 221

                  #9
                  interested to see how road selections will end up after the seasons over.
                  Comment
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