Jay Edgar NBA, Sunday 01.28.07

**Jay Edgar** · 01-28-07, 01:43 AM

Sunday numbers complete.

First tip is early -- 1:00pm EST.

GL

**onlooker** · 01-28-07, 02:13 AM

Looking good Jay. Thanks for all your work on this.

**Hulu** · 01-28-07, 10:17 AM

Jay your system keeps on chugging along. After that brief scare of a few losing days, the last few days have been quite nice. Thanks again for the hard work on this.

**bside** · 01-28-07, 10:26 AM

Nice day yesterday. I've been checking your system out and followed it yesterday. My only question is why wasn't Portland a play for you. I played them at +3.5 and +145 both which seemed to be indicated. Of course I am not complaining since they both won.

**bigboydan** · 01-28-07, 11:31 AM

Solid info as always Jay

I'm rolling with the Cavs +6.5

**Jay Edgar** · 01-28-07, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by bside

Nice day yesterday. I've been checking your system out and followed it yesterday. My only question is why wasn't Portland a play for you. I played them at +3.5 and +145 both which seemed to be indicated. Of course I am not complaining since they both won.

Bside, I actually had a ML of -184 in that game for Memphis, so the Blazers only qualified at +222 or better and, I think, (though I was out to dinner and had to look it up) that the ML closed at 177/167.

You can count one hand the POR games where they have not qualified as a play, but that was one of them.

(I did just notice that I typed "+22" for the Blazers strike price rather than "+222" -- hope that wasn't too confusing.)

Glad you had them, though.

**AC1318** · 01-28-07, 11:49 AM

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

PHX -106, CLE +149

SAN +177, LAX -125

NY +129, MIL +109

WAS -107, BOS +151

IND +179, DET -126

LAC +229, SEA -158

should the SAN +177,LAX -125 be swapped team for price?

**Jay Edgar** · 01-28-07, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by AC1318

should the SAN +177,LAX -125 be swapped team for price?

Nope, that's right. My numbers like the Lakers a whole lot more than the market does -- I have it 60%-40% that Lakers win. So to play the Spurs you'd need an ML that says they have a 35% chance to win or less, which is +177 or better. To play the Lakers you'd need a line which says they have a 55% chance to win or less (-125 or better) -- and we'll surely get that. (The current moneyline gives them a 41% chance to win.)

**AC1318** · 01-28-07, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Nope, that's right. My numbers like the Lakers a whole lot more than the market does -- I have it 60%-40% that Lakers win. So to play the Spurs you'd need an ML that says they have a 35% chance to win or less, which is +177 or better. To play the Lakers you'd need a line which says they have a 55% chance to win or less (-125 or better) -- and we'll surely get that. (The current moneyline gives them a 41% chance to win.)

I know LA was way over 200

**bside** · 01-28-07, 03:01 PM

Got it thanks. I had written down that +22 so thats probably why.
Thanks for all the effort.

**Jay Edgar** · 01-28-07, 11:43 PM

GAP TEAM ATS ML
11 CLE LOSS -100
19 LAX WIN -100
12 BOS LOSS -100
16 IND LOSS -100
11 SEA LOSS -125

===============

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 0-5, -5.25u
(CLE, LAX, BOS, IND, SEA)
YTD 172-303, +51.80u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 1-4, -3.20u
YTD 258-211 (.550), +36.45u

**onlooker** · 01-29-07, 12:17 AM

Jay. When was the last time the ML's went 0'fer for the day? Lakers played Nets today.

**Jay Edgar** · 01-29-07, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Jay. When was the last time the ML's went 0'fer for the day?

It's been very streaky lately. Check out Jan 21 (0-4) and Jan 23 (0-6).