Jay Edgar NBA, Saturday 01.27.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Friday, 6-5, +11.66u
(BOS, PHI, ATL, NY, MEM, NOK, WAS, POR, MIL, CHA, SEA)
YTD 169-294, +55.05u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Friday, 8-3, +4.85u
YTD 252-205 (.551), +36.75u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 DAL 69
2 PHX 68
3 HOU 61
4 DEN 58
5 CHI 57
6 NJ 56
7 NY 56
8 MIA 55
9 SAN 55
10 UTH 54
11 IND 54
12 DET 54
13 LAC 52
14 NOK 51
15 TOR 51
16 WAS 51
17 SEA 50
18 SAC 49
19 CHA 46
20 LAX 46
21 POR 44
22 ORL 43
23 GS 43
24 ATL 42
25 MEM 41
26 CLE 40
27 PHI 40
28 MIN 39
29 BOS 35
30 MIL 35

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.27.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

IND 4.0/161 over TOR

ATL 2.8/134 over PHI

MEM 5.2/184 over POR

NOK 3.8/153 over UTH

DAL 8.0/330 over SAC

CHI 6.0/216 over MIA

DEN 5.5/192 over NJ

GS 4.5/167 over CHA

LAC 6.5/249 over MIN


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

TOR +193, IND -135

PHI +159, ATL -113

POR +22, MEM -153

UTH +183, NOK -129

SAC +425, DAL -264

MIA +265, CHI -179

NJ +233, DEN -160

CHA +201, GS -140

MIN +309, LAC -204

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

TOR +412, IND +133

PHI +318, ATL +160

POR +507, MEM +118

UTH +384, NOK +140

SAC +2142, DAL -138

MIA +681, CHI +102

NJ +548, DEN +113

CHA +435, GS +129

MIN +915, LAC -111

[Jay Edgar]

I miskeyed some base numbers for the Nets-Nuggets game, shortchanging the Nuggets in the process. That's now corrected above.

Also note this oddity: the Hornets have to travel from Friday's home game (in NO) to Saturday's home game (in OKC).


GL

[bigboydan]

Also note this oddity: the Hornets have to travel from Friday's home game (in NO) to Saturday's home game (in OKC).

Thanks for the reminder Jay.

[trustbutverify]

Jay- whats the systems record to date eliminating 20+% games?

[onlooker]

I think the 5% strike price record is in Green for money lines and spreads.

[Jay Edgar]

Jay- whats the systems record to date eliminating 20+% games?

Through yesterday.

5%-19% OFF only:
ML
143-224
+52.12u

ATS
213-150-4 (.587)
+55.50u

20% OFF or more:
ML
26-70
+1.93u

ATS
39-55-2 (.415)
-18.75u


The record in green at the top of the thread is for everything -- all 5%+

[trustbutverify]

Through yesterday.

5%-19% OFF only:
ML
143-224
+52.12u

ATS
213-150-4 (.587)
+55.50u

20% OFF or more:
ML
26-70
+1.93u

ATS
39-55-2 (.415)
-18.75u


The record in green at the top of the thread is for everything -- all 5%+

Amazing. I'd be interested to see how those ats 5-19% selections would do backtested for the last 5 seasons. If it could avg even a third of this- wow.

[Jay Edgar]

I'd be interested to see how those ats 5-19% selections would do backtested for the last 5 seasons.

Wish I had the answer for earlier years, but I don't. Unforunately it would be a lot more than the push of a button to figure it out -- probably a hundred hours plus of work per season, assuming good pointspread and ML data.

This year's been pretty good, though. Well beyond my expectations so far.

[Jay Edgar]

DATE GAP TEAM ATS ML
27-Jan 11 TOR LOSS -100
27-Jan 8 PHI WIN 178
27-Jan 16 NOK WIN 132
27-Jan 12 SAC WIN -100
27-Jan 6 MIA WIN -100
27-Jan 10 NJ WIN 290
27-Jan 18 CHA LOSS -100

=====================================

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Saturday, 3-4, +2.00u
(TOR, PHI, NOK, SAC, MIA, NJ, CHA)
YTD 172-298, +57.05u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Saturday, 5-2, +2.90u
YTD 257-207 (.554), +39.65u