Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 01.03.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 2-4, +0.09u
(CLE, NOK, SEA, CHI, PHI, NY)
YTD 121-200, +39.24u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 3-3, -0.15u
YTD 171-147 (.538), +16.75u

POWER RATINGS FROM LAST 10 GAMES
1 PHX 69
2 DAL 67
3 MIL 64
4 CHI 61
5 HOU 60
6 SAC 58
7 SAN 58
8 WAS 56
9 CLE 54
10 LAC 54
11 ORL 54
12 LAX 54
13 MIN 53
14 DET 52
15 PHI 50
16 GS 49
17 CHA 49
18 IND 49
19 TOR 48
20 NJ 48
21 UTH 48
22 MEM 44
23 DEN 44
24 NY 43
25 MIA 42
26 SEA 39
27 POR 38
28 BOS 38
29 NOK 38
30 ATL 29

Interesting night Wednesday. Every game except one (MIL-WAS) has the road team in a BxB against a rested home team -- in some cases with as much as 4 days' rest.

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.03.07
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)

WAS 4.6/170 over MIL

TOR 2.5/126 over PHX

MIA 4.5/168 over LAC

BOS 1.8/118 over CLE

MEM 3.7/152 over GS

MIN 4.4/166 over SAN

HOU 6.3/233 over SEA

UTH 4.5/165 over PHI

POR 4.8/172 over NY

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)

MIL +204, WAS -142

PHX +150, TOR -107

LAC +201, MIA -141

CLE +140, BOS +100

GS +182, MEM -128

SA +200, MIN -139

SEA +287, HOU -192

PHI +199, UTH -139

NY +208, POR -144
(yeah!! maybe I won't be told to play the MFNYK!!)

[bigboydan]

So Jay we on the Knicks tonight

I really don't think the rest issue will be that big of factor tonight myself. In fact, I feel that might be a disadvantage tonight IMO

[Jay Edgar]

Steam is driving that Knicks line into should-play territory.



I know it's just me, but there's something about having a decent night ruined by east coast teams sh*tting themselves in those late games.

More discouraging than it should be.

Really makes you appreciate the powerful psychology behind the very normal urge to bet favorites and the "better" team, no matter the price. That's the psychology that builds casinos.

So yeah, the Knicks are a play. Right now I have a lot of Portland -4.5 and -5, having guessed right on the line move. I'm supposed to come back over the top with the Knicks, eventually. It won't be easy, but it's what I'm supposed to do. Ick.

Though I must say, Brandon Roy has not been as effective as I thought he'd be back from the injury. Yet anyway.

[bigboydan]

Portland is a steamer alright Jay.

That Knicks team is brutal to watch in 2nd halves of there games. Bad passes, turnovers, bad shots, ect, ect. That team would get blown out every night it seems like If it wasn't for David Lee.

[bigboydan]

Looks like the Knicks have a 9 point lead at the half Jay. Go figure they'd show up tonight and not last night uh.

[AC1318]

if only the knicks and seattle played this way last night 2 losers
made me a loser

[Jay Edgar]

Yeah, always best to stay the course.
But it's difficult.
Lesson learned -- again,

I scalped my Portland, but didn't come back much with the Knicks ATS.

Had the +212 ML though -- figuring they would either win outright or roll over altogether.

Seems that you can count on almost all teams scoring at least once per road trip -- even the ugly ones rarely come home empty handed.