Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 12.22.06

[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER
(playing all teams whose estimated win % is 5% or more higher in the Edgar line than in the closing Pinny line)

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 1-0, +1.64u
(WAS)
YTD 102-178, +24.95u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 1-0, +1.00u
YTD 152-126 (.547), +19.70u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 SAN 71
2 PHX 67
3 WAS 64
4 DAL 62
5 LAX 61
6 CHI 60
7 HOU 58
8 UTH 58
9 DET 56
10 DEN 55
11 POR 54
12 MIL 54
13 BOS 53
14 MIN 52
15 GS 51
16 IND 49
17 TOR 49
18 CLE 48
19 NJ 46
20 MIA 46
21 SEA 44
22 SAC 43
23 ATL 42
24 LAC 39
25 ORL 38
26 NY 37
27 MEM 36
28 NOK 36
29 CHA 34
30 PHI 30

EDGAR LINES FOR 12.22.06
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)
CHA 1.5/111 over UTH

ORL 0.7/106 over GS

NJ 2.6/128 over LAX

NY 0.1/101 over CHI

ATL 3.2/139.2 over IND

MIN 3.7/153 over MIL

BOS 6.2/230 over PHI

NOK 6.4/239 over MEM

SA 5.6/198 over HOU

DAL 6.6/253 over LAC

DEN 7.6/312 over SAC*

POR 3.9/157 over TOR

PHX 5.7/198 over WAS

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)

UTH +135, CHA +111

GS +129, ORL +116

LAX +157, NJ -131

CHI +124, NY -121

IND +172, ATL -144

MIL +189, MIN -160

PHI +296, BOS -256

MEM +309, NOK -268

HOU +250, SA -215

LAC +328, DAL -285

SAC +418, DEN -366*

TOR +195, PRO -165

PHX -215, WAS +249

Reminder: personnel is not one of the factors in the ratings (because I have not figured out how to do it reliably). Factors are last ten game results and scores, strength of each opponent, home/road differentials, and days since last game.

[bigboydan]

Good stuff Jay as always.

The one thing I'm a bit concerned about is the Suns flight. I'm hearing there still having trouble getting a charter out of Denver right now.

[Hulu]

Jay, thank you very much for posting these lines. It is much appreciated.

One question. You have mentioned that you have had the most success playing teams that are between 5 and 15% off your line. Are they the only ones you use when post the record or do you include everything more than 5% off?

[Jay Edgar]

Hulu, the posted record includes everything over 5%.

After every 1/10th of the season I am trying to go back and break down things such as 5-15% vs >15% and post the results. The 3/10ths point of the season is here today, and I'll try to do it after the 23rd.

Based on loose observation, I think the performance of the 15%+ teams is actually improving, if slightly.