Big Game Hunting

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  • Formula
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-05-06
    • 27

    #1
    Big Game Hunting
    Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks

    Over 192.5

    The Fundamental
    Memphis is a rested team having played only 3 games in the last 8 days. They are coming off a win in Boston where they managed 98 points on only 68 shots at a 41% clip! How did they do it? Free throws. Memphis is so well-coached that it occasinally makes them appear robotic, but there's no doubt they have been told to take it to the basket looking for contact. It also appears that they have made solid adjustments to their style due to some key injuries they have suffered. Milwaukee is not the kind of team that forces teams to play a different style and that should serve Memphis well.

    Milwaukee has terrible defense. Nobody on their team plays well defensively except Patterson. They give up 104 points a game and they're an Eastern Conference team! They usually make up for it on offense and Redd is a top 5 scorer in the NBA. They're also receiving surprising offensive contributions from Patterson who thrives in their wide open style. Mo Williams is developing into one of the premiere point guards in the league and he makes sure they are able to get good shots without ever having to worry about the shot clock.

    Both teams in the last five games have increased their offensive output (Grizzlies+4, Bucks+6), and given up more points (Grizzlies+6, Bucks+2). No reasons for these trends to change based on the nature of this game.

    The Technical
    Setup = HPH
    Raw Total = 197
    B2B Index = -2
    Injury Index = -1
    Trend Index = +2
    Projection = 196

    Last edited by Formula; 12-08-06, 07:12 AM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    I'm sorry bro but I have to disagree with you on this play. I feel the under is the right way to play this one.
    Comment
    • Jay Edgar
      SBR MVP
      • 03-08-06
      • 1576

      #3
      I don't have an opinion, and I'm backing off of totals because I don't have a plan of attack and my instincts seem mediocre at best, but I for one really appreciate the smart write-up. We need more of that around here. Thanks and good luck.
      Comment
      • Formula
        SBR Rookie
        • 12-05-06
        • 27

        #4
        Originally posted by Jay Edgar
        I don't have an opinion, and I'm backing off of totals because I don't have a plan of attack and my instincts seem mediocre at best, but I for one really appreciate the smart write-up. We need more of that around here. Thanks and good luck.
        Jay, you and Owned are the primary reasons I have decided to post these picks here. I know both of you are very good and put in a lot of time with your basketball selections. This is my way of letting you know it is appreciated.

        Your work with the sides is masterful and to some extent inspired me to develop the Formula for totals. I know it's only 1-2 on the forum so far but keep your eye on it because it has performed admirably well since it was developed and refined. You guys are only getting one play a day so the deviation can be deceptive early on.

        By the way, THANK YOU for the diligence you put forth in giving us your line on a daily basis. Enjoy the Formula posts!
        Comment
        • gummo
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-04-06
          • 6297

          #5
          Took a big second half but it cashed
          Comment
          • lkravovicz
            SBR Hustler
            • 12-06-06
            • 83

            #6
            wow great estimation, too bad i didnt take it.
            Comment
            • Formula
              SBR Rookie
              • 12-05-06
              • 27

              #7
              194

              Ruben Patterson did not let the praise go to his head tonight. He led the team in points, rebounds, and assists in only 31 minutes of action. The Bucks got a big lead and almost checked out too early to give us our OVER but at least Memphis was on board. With Villanueva back, Milwaukee should be able to solidify itself as a contender in the East. The Bucks were very conservative with minutes tonight so don't expect a letdown against the defensively challenged Knicks in the backend of this B2B for Milwaukee.

              Once again it should be noted that the setup code (HPH) should have created a comfort zone for those who were bothered by the 86 points that came in the the first half. Although the first half was slightly lower than anticipated, that last 'H' let you know the second half would exceed the line and carry the game total over.

              After our successful day of hunting, perhaps it would be best if we do something a little more politically correct. Let's find a place with a stiff breeze and Fly a Kite.
              Comment
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