Jay Edgar NBA, Thursday 12.07.06

**Razz** · 12-06-06, 11:26 PM

Alright Jay, I'm torn between playing NJN or Dallas. Your numbers seem to say Detroit is the play, but I think this is going to be an easy win for Dallas. The oddsmaker doesn't just make Pistons a 7.5 point dog for no reason, and they really aren't an elite team at this point, IMO. I hate laying that number in the NBA, but actually I would seem to think it comes down if anything.
On the other hand, I like Nets to win outright against Suns, but I hate taking an Eastern team against a Western team.
Thanks in advance for your opinion.

**moses millsap** · 12-06-06, 11:37 PM

Man, the Nets scare me, but I too am leaning Nets ML for tomorrow. Agree with Razz on the Mavs/Pistons game; I think it could get ugly for Detroit if they aren't reading to committ a full game's effort.

**Jay Edgar** · 12-07-06, 01:20 AM

I dunno. I'm always scared by what these numbers suggest to play -- scared or horrified, one or the other. But it works out.

But I agree that messing with Dallas seems particularly crazy right now. They are a machine. If I had to pick one between DET and NJ I'd take NJ -- PHX is rolling, too, but it"s been mostly soft home games. They"ll be favored in 4 of the 5 games on this trip, and some ML dog will get them. Might as well be the Nets,

**Jay Edgar** · 12-07-06, 03:01 PM

Last night I was literally in the process of falling asleep when responding to Razz and O. Let me try to add a little more value.

Here's what happened last year in the one game between the teams at this site.

03.27.06 -- Maybe the season low point for PHX. The Nets, off a road win at DET one night before, ambushed the Suns in first game of 5-game trip for PHX. NJ led 83-45 after 3Q and won 110-72. Kidd just missed a triple double. Amare in his third game back played 14 minutes in the Land of the Lost. Nash was shut out in 26 minutes. Suns shot 26% and were outrebounded 45-65 -- not a good combination. Suns were in a short slump -- they would get blown out again the next night in MIL before winning two of the last 3 on the trip.

11.19.05 - DAL crushed DET 119-82, ending Pistons' season-opening winning streak at 8. DET came off a tough win at HOU the night before, while DAL was rested and amid a 4-game home stand. Game was over early as Mavs unloaded a first Q of 40-16 on them. DET was the real deal then -- they bounced back to win 16 of next 18.

12.02.05 - Heat won 98-87 to go to 10-6 for year, while Sacto fell to 7-9. Second consecutive loss for Kings, who would go on to lose the next 4, too. Mia held SAC to 14 pts with the 4th to seal it. No Shaq for MIA. A different Kings team, really: Peja, Bonzi, Shareef at 40 mins each. Kevin Martin was avergaing 33 MPG at that point, but was a DNP for some reason. Probably a game not much remembered by either side tonight (unlike the two games above.)

**Razz** · 12-07-06, 06:24 PM

Thanks jay, think I'll go with the Nets +3.5.

**Jay Edgar** · 12-08-06, 02:19 AM

This method’s making steady progress . . .

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more ML differential)
ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 2-1, +3.45u
(NJ, DET, MIA)
YTD 72-116, +28.15u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 2-1, +0.95u
YTD 105-83 (.559), +17.85u

All three games tonight were close qualifiers.

They all count in the records because these closing Pinny lines (as best I can tell from my observations, and clicking back through screen shots) put them at least 5% off the Edgar line. NJ was 6% off at +129, DET was 6% off at +255, and MIA was 5% off at +190.

It’s interesting to me that opening, closing, and interim pointspreads are all over the place --but the powers that be do not publish similar moneyline information.

At all.

I wish the rule for tracking this method could be that if the ML gets into 5% OFF range at any point, then it’s a play – but with no reliable records of ML movement there’s no way to track that.

But I am calling it straight, and even conservatively, based on the closing Pinny moneyline as I can see it or find it.

As a result, some plays sneak into the records late in the day and some drift out. For example, two big moneyline scores on the Bucks over the last 10 days are not counted in these records because the ML drifted to 4% off just before the close.