Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 12.05.06

[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more ML differential)
ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Monday, 1-4, -2.48u
(WAS, GS, BOS, MIL, IND)
YTD 66-108, +15.50u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Monday, 1.4, -3.20u
YTD 97-77 (.557), +16.15u

TEAMS RANKED BY LAST-10-GAME POWER RATING
1 DAL, 2 SAN, 3 DEN, 4 HOU, 5 LAX
6 PHX, 7 CHI, 8 ORL, 9 DET, 10 TOR

11 MIN, 12 SAC, 13 LAC, 14 IND, 15 UTH
16 WAS, 17 MEM, 18 MIL, 19 MIA, 20 GS

21 CLE, 22 NY, 23 CHA, 24 SEA, 25 NJ
26 BOS, 27 ATL, 28 PHI, 29 NOK, 30 POR

EDGAR LINES FOR 12.05.06
(favorite/pointspread/ML/dog)
DET 4.2/164 over POR
NJ 1.3/109 over DAL
HOU 7.0/265 over GS
PHX 6.3/232 over SAC
SEA 3.9/153 over ATL
LAC 5.2/183 over MIA

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML price or better, team is a 5%-OFF method play)
DET @ -138, POR @ +192
DAL @ +129, NJ @ -107
HOU @ -219, GS @ +330
PHX @ -191, SAC @ +284
SEA @ -134, ATL @ +187
LAC @ -153, MIA @ +220

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete.
GL

[Jay Edgar]

Under the 5%-off measuring stick there is good value with NJ, SAC, ATL, and MIA.

The line on DET-POR is so far off that the Blazers currently fall well into the "too-good-to-be-true" category at 22% off, which is fine with me -- may make just a token ML play there.

But just like last night (with ORL and NY), a team in a great spot (GS) does not qualify under the method at this point. Line is only 2% off in GS's favor.

[nosuzieno]

Do you ever play totals?

[Jay Edgar]

Do you ever play totals?

I do play a few, NSN, but not with any systematic approach.

Maybe someday.

[moses millsap]

Portland +535

[Jay Edgar]

Portland +535

just good enough to be true

[Jay Edgar]

They steamed the Hawks so far out of our picture that the Sonics almost qualified.

I couldn't resist SEA at E -142 and -6 +158.

[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more ML differential)
ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 1-3 +2.45u
(POR, NJ, SAC, MIA)
YTD 67-111, +17.95u
SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 99-79(.556), +16.05u