Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 11.22.06

[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE ML vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more differential)

ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 2-2, 0.00u (PHI, MEM, NOK, DEN)
YTD 41-64, +5.15u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 3-1, +1.95u
YTD, 57-48, +6.60u

TEAMS RANKED BY LAST-10-GAMES POWER RATING
1 UTH, 2 GS, 3 SAN, 4 DAL, 5 HOU
6 LAC, 7 DET, 8 BOS, 9 PHX, 10 NY

11 SAC, 12 LAX, 13 CLE, 14 SEA, 15 NOK
16 ORL, 17 MEM, 18 DEN, 19 WAS, 20 CHI

21 ATL, 22 POR, 23 PHI, 24 TOR, 25 IND
26 MIL, 27 NJ, 28 MIN, 29 CHA, 30 MIA

EDGAR LINES for 11.22.06
ORL 6.2/227 over ORL
CHA 0.6/105 over BOS
TOR 4.3/165 over CLE
DET 5.6/192 over ATL
SAN 10.1/511 over MIA
MIL 4.5/167 over PHI
MIN 1.8/117 over NY
HOU 6.4/243 over WAS
PHX 5.5/192 over NOK
POR 4.5/167 over NJ
SAC 2.9/135 over UTH
GS 7.8/320 over DEN
LAC 4.1/163 over SEA

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Wednesday.

I like TOR and I would love them beyond anything else this year if they'd been given one more day off since returning from their road trip. They've played very well against tough opponents and should be hungry. Yes their home court ad is weak, but it should not take much to topple the fat and happy Cavs, who have been winning unimpressively against weak opposition. CLE's last six games have come against teams that I ranked like this at the time:

28, 27, 23, 27, 21, 20

GL

[Jay Edgar]

STRIKE PRICES
(At what price will a team be 5% off the Edgar ML?)
(Note that these calculations are blind to injury issues)

IND at +274 or better
CHA at +109 or better
TOR at -141 or better
ATL at +227 or better
MIA at +740 or better
PHI at +194 or better
NY at +135 or better
WAS at +291 or better
NOK at +127 or better
POR at -143 or better
UTH at +158 or better
GS at -261 or better
SEA at +188 or better

[Jay Edgar]

IND is 4% off at +260
CHA is 3% off at +100
TOR is 18% off at +121
ATL is 6% off at +250
MIA is 3% off at +600
PHI is 13% off at +300
NY is 13% off at +187
WAS is 2% off at +260
NOK is 14% off at +385
POR is 22% off at +143
UTH is 5% off at +160
GS is 18% off at -142
SEA is 6% off at +200

[Jay Edgar]

STRIKE PRICES
(At what price will a team be 5% off the Edgar ML?)
(Note that these calculations are blind to injury issues)

IND at +274 or better (no play)
CHA at +109 or better (WINNER but a no play- did qualify earlier in day)
TOR at -141 or better ATS/SU WINNER
ATL at +227 or better ATS WINNER
MIA at +740 or better (no play)
PHI at +194 or better ATS WINNER
NY at +135 or better ATS/SU loser
WAS at +291 or better (no play)
NOK at +127 or better ATS/SU LOSER
POR at -143 or better ATS/SU WINNER
UTH at +158 or better ATS/SU WINNER
GS at -261 or better ATS/SU LOSER
SEA at +188 or better ATS/SU WINNER

I've been playing both ATS and SU -- tonight was a night to be happy to have the points.

[moses millsap]

Utah is playing insane at the moment and the Kings are the complete opposite, totally useless.