Jay Edgar NBA, Report on 2006-07 Block I (Oct 31-Nov 15)

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  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576

    #1
    Jay Edgar NBA, Report on 2006-07 Block I (Oct 31-Nov 15)
    Quick explanation:

    I keep weighted power ratings which are updated daily and put into a formula (that I'm trying to improve all the time) to get an estimated moneyline on each game. Expressing that moneyline in terms of each team's chances to win (example, a -150 favorite has a 60.0% chance to win), I compare my ML with the real ML. (To get the real ML I average Pinny's 2 moneylines -- example, a 130/140 ML says the favorite is 57.43% likely to win, which translates to a shade above ML -135).

    The recordkeeping is based on the closing Pinny ML as best I can track it. I compare that with my ML. So if it closes at Pinny at that 130/140 and I give that favorite only a 51.6% chance to win, then ML-OFF system pick is the dog at a strength of 5.8% (57.43 minus 51.60), which is rounded to 6.

    For the first half-month of the season, if we played every team where the ML-OFF was 5% or more, we'd have 71 plays, which went 31-40 straight up and 41-30 ATS and made a profit either way.

    Again in this Block I, as in the testing I did with last year's results, the concept of plays being "too good" -- or my ML being "too far off" -- reared its head. So far in 2006-07, at 15% ML-OFF or higher, the results take a turn for the worse. Just playing the plays in the 5%-15% range would have gone 26-29 SU for +23.8 units, with ATS plays 34-21 (or about +11 units if all plays were 1 unit and juice was -110.)

    This is promising, although on a small sample. It's a less-than-sexy approach in that you are asked to be on almost every big dog, and on a lot of unappealing teams. For example, so far it's featured these teams most:

    POR 9x
    MEM 7x
    NY 6x
    CHA, BOS 5x
    ATL 4x

    Also, because the power ratings are based on the last 10 games, these early results are still somewhat connected (on a decreasing basis) to part of last year's results. (I divided last season into 10 chunks to make up the "last 10 games" while the system gets started.) In the next couple of weeks the ratings will get to be all about this year.

    Next post will have the summary, and the third post the daily data.
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-17-06, 11:21 AM.
  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576

    #2
    ALL GAMES WHERE EDGAR ML IS OFF FROM PINNY CLOSING ML BY 5% OR MORE
    SU 31-40, +22.68 Units
    ATS 41-30, .585
    =====================================

    SUBSETS
    5% -10% Off
    SU 16-19, +12.99 Units
    ATS 19-16, .543

    10% - 15% Off
    SU 10-10, +10.85 Units
    ATS 15-5, .750

    15% - 20% Off
    SU 3-6, -1.96 Units
    ATS 4-5, .444

    More Than 20% Off
    SU 2-5, +0.80 Units
    ATS 3-4, .428
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-17-06, 11:13 AM.
    Comment
    • Jay Edgar
      SBR MVP
      • 03-08-06
      • 1576

      #3
      DATE TEAM GAP LINE ATSresult MLresult
      31-Oct LAX 34 8.0 WIN 315

      1-Nov LAX 22 7.0 WIN 265
      1-Nov SAC 16 6.0 LOSS -100
      1-Nov UTH 16 1.0 WIN 101
      1-Nov MEM 13 -5.0 LOSS -213
      1-Nov POR 6 8.5 WIN 360
      1-Nov ORL 5 1.5 WIN 101
      1-Nov NO 5 3.0 WIN 142

      3-Nov POR 13 9.5 LOSS -100
      3-Nov MEM 12 -4.0 WIN 100
      3-Nov PHI 8 5.0 WIN 193
      3-Nov UTH 6 6.5 WIN 248
      3-Nov ATL 5 -3.0 WIN 100

      4-Nov NYK 13 3.5 LOSS -100
      4-Nov MEM 11 8.0 LOSS -100
      4-Nov CHA 11 4.0 WIN 165
      4-Nov POR 8 3.5 WIN 148
      4-Nov BOS 7 7.5 WIN -100

      5-Nov TOR 17 6.5 LOSS -100
      5-Nov PHI 15 2.5 WIN 124
      5-Nov ATL 13 3.0 WIN 140
      5-Nov NO 6 -1.0 WIN 100
      5-Nov LAX 5 1.5 LOSS -100

      6-Nov NY 16 6.5 LOSS -100
      6-Nov POR 11 11.0 LOSS -100
      6-Nov GS 11 9.5 WIN 420
      6-Nov MIL 6 6.0 LOSS -100
      6-Nov DET 6 4.5 WIN -100

      7-Nov MEM 23 4.5 LOSS -100
      7-Nov MIN 11 8.0 WIN -100
      7-Nov ATL 10 10.5 WIN 505
      7-Nov SEA 9 5.5 WIN -100
      7-Nov PHI 8 4.5 LOSS -100

      8-Nov POR 15 5.0 WIN 179
      8-Nov SEA 14 6.0 WIN -100
      8-Nov NY 8 10.5 WIN 510
      8-Nov LAC 8 -2.5 WIN 100
      8-Nov CHA 7 5.0 WIN -100
      8-Nov IND 5 5.5 LOSS -100

      10-Nov DET 12 5.5 WIN 200
      10-Nov NY 12 10.5 WIN -100
      10-Nov BOS 8 3.0 LOSS -100
      10-Nov POR 7 2.5 WIN 126
      10-Nov PHI 7 -2.0 LOSS -130
      10-Nov NJ 6 -4.0 LOSS -172
      10-Nov ORL 5 5.0 LOSS -100

      11-Nov MEM 24 11.0 WIN -100
      11-Nov NY 15 13.0 WIN -100
      11-Nov BOS 13 9.5 WIN -100
      11-Nov MIL 8 0.0 LOSS -107
      11-Nov DET 6 3.0 LOSS -100
      11-Nov IND 5 6.5 LOSS -100
      11-Nov ORL 5 5.0 WIN 187

      12-Nov POR 27 5.5 LOSS -100
      12-Nov CHA 21 4.0 LOSS -100
      12-Nov MEM 17 9.0 LOSS -100
      12-Nov TOR 6 7.0 LOSS -100
      12-Nov NJ 5 5.5 WIN 199

      13-Nov NY 25 5.0 LOSS -100
      13-Nov BOS 5 0.0 LOSS -108

      14-Nov POR 19 8.5 LOSS -100
      14-Nov UTH 14 1.0 WIN 105
      14-Nov ATL 12 -1.0 WIN 100
      14-Nov HOU 8 -1.5 LOSS -118
      14-Nov CHI 7 4.0 LOSS -100
      14-Nov CHA 6 7.0 LOSS -100

      15-Nov POR 16 11.0 LOSS -100
      15-Nov NY 14 3.0 WIN 138
      15-Nov MEM 11 8.5 WIN -100
      15-Nov NOK 10 8.0 WIN 325
      15-Nov CHA 9 12.0 WIN 815
      15-Nov BOS 8 1.5 WIN 105
      Last edited by Jay Edgar; 11-17-06, 11:17 AM.
      Comment
      • moses millsap
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-25-05
        • 8289

        #4
        Looks like that too good to be true category of 20% plus discrepancy is following in the same pattern you suggested it did last year. Good stuff JE.
        Comment
        • isetcap
          SBR MVP
          • 12-16-05
          • 4006

          #5
          I find the sexiest teams to be the ones that make me money!

          Spectacular information, Jay.
          Comment
          • Jay Edgar
            SBR MVP
            • 03-08-06
            • 1576

            #6
            REPORT ON SEGMENT #2 OF SEASON (11.16.06 to 12.03.06)
            (season is divided into ten equal segments)

            The headlines:

            1. The ML plays slowed down a little from their hot start, showing a modest loss (3.7 units) over the 97 plays since November 16. Still ahead about 18 units for the year.

            2. The same teams ATS stayed very strong, hitting at 56.7% over the 97 plays and adding 10.9 units to the profit line. Now ahead about 19 units for the year.

            3. The puzzling pattern continued -- it is not the plays where the Edgar ML is farthest from the real ML that are most profitable. Once again, somewhere around 15-20% off, profitability seems to drop off sharply.

            FOR SEGMENT #2
            ALL GAMES WHERE EDGAR ML IS OFF FROM PINNY CLOSING ML BY 5% OR MORE

            ALL 97 PLAYS:
            SU, 35-62, -3.70u
            ATS, 55-42, +10.90u

            SUBSETS
            5%-10% Off
            SU, 19-20, +8.97u
            ATS, 27-12, +14.40u

            10%-15% Off
            SU, 9-23, -5.39u
            ATS, 16-16, -0.80u

            15%-20% Off
            SU, 4-8, -2.60u
            ATS, 8-4.+3.80u

            More Than 20% Off
            SU, 3-11, -4.68u
            ATS, 4-10, -6.50u

            ===========================
            FOR ENTIRE SEASON TO DATE

            ALL 169 PLAYS:
            SU, 63-104, +17.98u
            ATS, 96-73, +19.35u

            SUBSETS
            5%-10% Off
            SU, 34-40, +21.96u
            ATS, 46-28, +16.60u

            10%-15% Off
            SU, 19-33, +5.46u
            ATS, 31-21, +8.95u

            15%-20% Off
            SU, 7-15, -5.56u
            ATS, 12-10, +1.50u

            More Than 20% Off
            SU, 5-16, -3.88u
            ATS, 7-14, -7.70u

            List of plays for this tenth of the season to follow.
            Last edited by Jay Edgar; 12-04-06, 12:56 AM.
            Comment
            • Jay Edgar
              SBR MVP
              • 03-08-06
              • 1576

              #7
              DATE/TEAM/%GAP/ATS result/ML result
              17-Nov WAS 6 LOSS -100
              17-Nov MIN 7 LOSS -100
              17-Nov NJ 8 WIN 178
              17-Nov PHI 9 LOSS -100
              17-Nov CHI 10 LOSS -100
              17-Nov UTH 11 WIN 173
              17-Nov TOR 13 WIN -100
              17-Nov POR 14 LOSS -100
              17-Nov NY 22 WIN 360
              17-Nov MEM 23 LOSS -100

              18-Nov HOU 5 LOSS -100
              18-Nov UTH 5 LOSS 100
              18-Nov CHA 6 LOSS -100
              18-Nov POR 8 WIN 370
              18-Nov NOK 8 WIN 129
              18-Nov PHI 8 WIN -100
              18-Nov TOR 9 WIN -100
              18-Nov NY 10 LOSS -115
              18-Nov SEA 10 LOSS -100
              18-Nov MIL 14 LOSS -175
              18-Nov MEM 18 WIN -100
              18-Nov ATL 20 LOSS -148

              19-Nov SAC 20 LOSS -100

              20-Nov SEA 5 WIN 100
              20-Nov TOR 8 WIN -100
              20-Nov CHA 15 LOSS -100
              20-Nov MEM 16 WIN 144
              20-Nov NY 22 LOSS -100
              20-Nov POR 28 LOSS -100
              20-Nov GS 29 WIN -100

              21-Nov DEN 6 WIN 100
              21-Nov NOK 7 WIN 100
              21-Nov MEM 15 WIN -100
              21-Nov PHI 18 LOSS -100

              22-Nov ATL 5 WIN -100
              22-Nov UTH 7 WIN 173
              22-Nov SEA 8 WIN 220
              22-Nov GS 12 LOSS -185
              22-Nov NY 13 LOSS -100
              22-Nov NOK 13 LOSS -100
              22-Nov TOR 17 WIN 116
              22-Nov POR 25 WIN 160

              24-Nov DAL 5 WIN 193
              24-Nov IND 5 WIN 100
              24-Nov MIN 5 WIN 178
              24-Nov PHI 9 WIN 107
              24-Nov CHA 10 LOSS -100
              24-Nov SAC 11 WIN 240
              24-Nov MEM 18 WIN 122

              25-Nov PHI 7 LOSS -100
              25-Nov ATL 8 LOSS -100
              25-Nov POR 8 LOSS -100
              25-Nov NOK 9 LOSS -100
              25-Nov CHA 13 LOSS -145
              25-Nov MIN 14 WIN 127
              25-Nov GS 14 WIN 107
              25-Nov MEM 17 WIN -100
              25-Nov NY 25 LOSS -100

              26-Nov DEN 6 WIN -100
              26-Nov TOR 10 WIN 100
              26-Nov SEA 21 LOSS -100
              26-Nov POR 22 LOSS -100

              27-Nov GS 28 WIN 160
              27-Nov ORL 7 WIN 248
              27-Nov MIN 15 WIN -100

              28-Nov TOR 8 WIN 165
              28-Nov ATL 11 WIN -100
              28-Nov CHA 11 WIN 270
              28-Nov MIN 13 WIN -100
              28-Nov NY 14 LOSS -100
              28-Nov MEM 14 WIN 400
              28-Nov POR 9 LOSS -100

              29-Nov ATL 6 WIN 100
              29-Nov BOS 12 LOSS -136
              29-Nov MEM 12 LOSS -100
              29-Nov NY 14 WIN 490
              29-Nov UTH 14 WIN 110
              29-Nov HOU 18 LOSS -100
              29-Nov TOR 25 LOSS -100

              30-Nov MIA 14 WIN -100

              1-Dec TOR 6 WIN 100
              1-Dec IND 6 WIN -100
              1-Dec NY 9 WIN -100
              1-Dec MIN 9 LOSS -116
              1-Dec POR 9 WIN -100
              1-Dec SAC 10 LOSS -100
              1-Dec CHA 11 LOSS -100
              1-Dec MIL 12 WIN -100
              1-Dec NOK 14 LOSS -100
              1-Dec ATL 23 LOSS -100

              2-Dec MEM 16 LOSS -117
              2-Dec LAX 8 WIN 134
              2-Dec PHI 9 WIN -100
              2-Dec SAC 10 WIN -100
              2-Dec SEA 11 WIN -100

              3-Dec CHA 17 WIN 175
              3-Dec MIN 5 WIN 118
              Last edited by Jay Edgar; 12-04-06, 12:57 AM.
              Comment
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