Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 11.07.06

**Lucas** · 11-06-06, 03:41 PM

Philadelphia +6 looks good

**Jay Edgar** · 11-06-06, 03:50 PM

**Jay Edgar** · 11-07-06, 09:29 AM

Numbers now complete.

GL and

Vote the bastards out!!!

**moses millsap** · 11-07-06, 09:59 AM

Would be a little concerned that Carlisle has had 3 days to prep his boys for this matchup, but GL to you.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-07-06, 10:18 AM

OWNED, to me rested Indy is definitely worth noting and worrying about a little. Even more because Philly has not dropped a game yet. Also that Indy lost at home last time. Not enough to scare me off here, though. Philly seems more resilient this year and they have a decent chance to be hanging around at the end.

My numbers are talent numbers only -- haven't yet figured out how to quanity the stuff about body (rest/fatigue and injuries) or mind (motivation).

**moses millsap** · 11-07-06, 10:38 AM

Here are a few of my thoughts on this game (not betting though, taking a couple weeks off):

Philly's game is all about penetration and dish, or at least, that is when they are most effective in my eyes. I watched their first half against Miami to get a better idea of how they are performing this year. As they were hanging with Miami, mostly because of their ability to get into the lane, but as soon as Riley went to a 2-3 zone on them, they seemed lost. Horrible spacing on the floor and I believe 60-70% of their possessions to end that first half (while MIA was in the ZD) ended with Webber taking a low percentage and usually contested jumper or hook (I know that's his pet move, but these were not spots where he should've been shooting, but that was their only out). Meanwhile, in Indiana, Jermaine has made it clear that this year, he wants to focus on the little things and defense (re: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...611070429/1088) Statements like this tell me about a team's mentality and as you alluded to earlier, they lost their home opener to NOK, and I think this is a great spot for them, along with being a fairly solid matchup for them as well (I don't like how Philly matches up with teams along the lines of Indy, Utah, etc.). And the number rests at 4.5, which is basically at the bottom end of key #s for the NBA.

**moses millsap** · 11-07-06, 10:48 AM

And just looking into that Rockets/Grizzlies game, I think you're spot on in that one. I will be watching that one tonight if I'm around.

BTW, big props to you so far in the season. See you've been betting in 0.25 increments and are up over 3.10

**Jay Edgar** · 11-07-06, 10:50 AM

Good stuff. I love the Internet.

I'm relived not to see "Carlisle Puts Team Through Grueling 2-Hour Defensive Practice" in that Indy Star slot today.

Also agree that <5 and >5 are very different things. Pacers 2.5/-130 still seems about right to me, but we'll see.

If Philly does get their road win tonight then Toronto looks very appetizing tomorrow.

Appreciate the nice words -- though, as you can see from my avatar (and prose style), I've got a big enough head already.

**moses millsap** · 11-07-06, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Also agree that <5 and >5 are very different things. Pacers 2.5/-130 still seems about right to me, but we'll see.

I think there is only value in Pacers -4.5 or Philly ML in this one. Now, watch the Pacers eke one out with a MOV of 1-4pts.

**nosuzieno** · 11-07-06, 01:39 PM

thanks for situational analysis of Pacers rested at home. System play would be against Philly, as teams coming off back-to-back upset wins are less than 25% ats in game three.
last two games of 2005-06 saw indy winning both first by 1 (at philly -2) and at Indy (-5) by 13...

**Jay Edgar** · 11-07-06, 03:05 PM

Well, I guess it's called the "low-limit experimental stage" of the season for a reason. Already played PHI +6 and +210, and MEM at +153. The other dog prices look to get better as the day goes on, and my ML differential principles now point to all of them. So all of them it'll likely be.

**nosuzieno** · 11-07-06, 03:26 PM

perfect time and to experiment with low unit wagers and like baseball, one can get paid hitting half or less on the dogs to make $. So, hope you have great eve (minus the pacers of course...)

**Jay Edgar** · 11-07-06, 06:17 PM

This "buy low" stuff is exhausting.

Here's what I have and the price I got (a mixed bag).

Once again, .25u each

ATL E +514
ATL +11 -109
PHI E +210
PHI +6 -105
SEA E +280
SEA +7 +100
MEM E +153
MEM +4 -101
GS E +270
MIN E +285
MIN +8 -104

o177@MEM
u198.5@NOK