I sense there is opportunity with NBA money lines. If so, I'd like to be there.
For my money ML betting provides a superior in-game experience -- unless you enjoy the constant terror of a back door cover or a bad beat from guys who are playing to the real and not the ATS scoreboard. I like having a common purpose with the NBA team I'm backing, just like in MLB.
But in approaching the question of money lines I've been frustrated by lack of good data about the money lines that the best bookmakers hung on past games.
Good historical MLs are much harder to find than historical point spreads. And when data is available it is usally garbage like -145/+125 rather than the decent MLs available at places like Pinny.
So I decided to come at it from the other side.
I spent a little time figuring out the TRUE money lines for the NBA since 1997.
For example, what's the probability that a 3.5 point favorite will win the game?
Turns out that since Haloween 1997, including playoffs, there have been 629 games with a closing pointspread of 3.5 (I used the records at Covers, which seem pretty standard.) The favorite won 390 of those 629 games straight up, a .620 winning percentage. The break even money line for a 62% proposition is -163. Mix in the results for games that closed at 3.0 points and 4.0 points to broaden the sample base and account for some pointspread fluctuation, and the teams closing at "-3.5" won 1170 of 1904 games straight up for a 61.4% percentage and an equivalent money line of -159.
Here are the true money lines as determined by all results and official closing lines in the last 9 seasons (1997-98 through 2005-06.)
(Usual caveat: I'm not a numbers guy, but I like to play around with them. There are probably faster, better, and more statistically sound ways to approach these questions.)
TRUE MONEY LINES FOR NBA GAMES -- October 1997 to June 2006
1.5 point favorites
won 694 of 1333 SU
52.1%
TRUE ML -108
2.0 point favorites
won 792 of 1436 SU
55.2%
TRUE ML -123
2.5 point favorites
won 984 of 1741 SU
56.5%
TRUE ML -130
3.0 point favorites
won 1065 of 1802 SU
59.1%
TRUE ML -145
3.5 point favorites
won 1170 of 1904 SU
61.4%
TRUE ML -159
4.0 point favorites
won 1225 of 1951 SU
62.8%
TRUE ML -174
4.5 point favorites
won 1257 of 1945 SU
64.6%
TRUE ML -188
5.0 point favorites
won 1188 of 1826 SU
65.1%
TRUE ML -193
5.5 point favorites
won 1207 of 1771 SU
68.2%
TRUE ML -214
6.0 point favorites
won 1169 of 1693 SU
69.0%
TRUE ML -223
6.5 point favorites
won 1190 of 1667 SU
71.4%
TRUE ML -249
7.0 point favorites
won 1058 of 1455 SU
72.7%
TRUE ML -266
7.5 point favorites
won 1014 of 1346 SU
75.3%
TRUE ML -305
8.0 point favorites
won 908 of 1192 SU
76.2%
TRUE ML -320
8.5 point favorites
won 908 of 1158 SU
78.4%
TRUE ML -363
9.0 point favorites
won 828 of 1037 SU
79.8%
TRUE ML -396
9.5 point favorites
won 782 of 947 SU
82.6%
TRUE ML -474
10.0 point favorites
won 663 of 790 SU
83.9%
TRUE ML -522
10.5 point favorites
won 592 of 688 SU
86.0%
TRUE ML -617
11.0 point favorites
won 486 of 557 SU
87.3%
TRUE ML -665
11.5 point favorites
won 429 of 493 SU
87.0%
TRUE ML -670
12.0 point favorites
won 351 of 401 SU
87.5%
TRUE ML -702
12.5 point favorites
won 416 of 460 SU
90.4%
TRUE ML -945
13.0 and 13.5 point favorites
won 407 of 440 SU
92.5%
TRUE ML -1233
14.0 point and up favorites
won 456 of 485 SU
94.0%
TRUE ML -1572
At the very least, this should provide a useful index for some folks. You can also use it in reverse -- for example, if you give a team a 35% chance of winning but want to play them ATS, how many points should you have in hand before you begin to feel comfortable? (Answer: greater than 5.0)
If I can find more October time, I hope to break out the last 3 seasons and also peek at home-road splits to see what sub-truths might lurk there.
(And I'd also like to figure out how Ganchrow gets his data posted inside those snazzy tables.)
More to come.
For my money ML betting provides a superior in-game experience -- unless you enjoy the constant terror of a back door cover or a bad beat from guys who are playing to the real and not the ATS scoreboard. I like having a common purpose with the NBA team I'm backing, just like in MLB.
But in approaching the question of money lines I've been frustrated by lack of good data about the money lines that the best bookmakers hung on past games.
Good historical MLs are much harder to find than historical point spreads. And when data is available it is usally garbage like -145/+125 rather than the decent MLs available at places like Pinny.
So I decided to come at it from the other side.
I spent a little time figuring out the TRUE money lines for the NBA since 1997.
For example, what's the probability that a 3.5 point favorite will win the game?
Turns out that since Haloween 1997, including playoffs, there have been 629 games with a closing pointspread of 3.5 (I used the records at Covers, which seem pretty standard.) The favorite won 390 of those 629 games straight up, a .620 winning percentage. The break even money line for a 62% proposition is -163. Mix in the results for games that closed at 3.0 points and 4.0 points to broaden the sample base and account for some pointspread fluctuation, and the teams closing at "-3.5" won 1170 of 1904 games straight up for a 61.4% percentage and an equivalent money line of -159.
Here are the true money lines as determined by all results and official closing lines in the last 9 seasons (1997-98 through 2005-06.)
(Usual caveat: I'm not a numbers guy, but I like to play around with them. There are probably faster, better, and more statistically sound ways to approach these questions.)
TRUE MONEY LINES FOR NBA GAMES -- October 1997 to June 2006
1.5 point favorites
won 694 of 1333 SU
52.1%
TRUE ML -108
2.0 point favorites
won 792 of 1436 SU
55.2%
TRUE ML -123
2.5 point favorites
won 984 of 1741 SU
56.5%
TRUE ML -130
3.0 point favorites
won 1065 of 1802 SU
59.1%
TRUE ML -145
3.5 point favorites
won 1170 of 1904 SU
61.4%
TRUE ML -159
4.0 point favorites
won 1225 of 1951 SU
62.8%
TRUE ML -174
4.5 point favorites
won 1257 of 1945 SU
64.6%
TRUE ML -188
5.0 point favorites
won 1188 of 1826 SU
65.1%
TRUE ML -193
5.5 point favorites
won 1207 of 1771 SU
68.2%
TRUE ML -214
6.0 point favorites
won 1169 of 1693 SU
69.0%
TRUE ML -223
6.5 point favorites
won 1190 of 1667 SU
71.4%
TRUE ML -249
7.0 point favorites
won 1058 of 1455 SU
72.7%
TRUE ML -266
7.5 point favorites
won 1014 of 1346 SU
75.3%
TRUE ML -305
8.0 point favorites
won 908 of 1192 SU
76.2%
TRUE ML -320
8.5 point favorites
won 908 of 1158 SU
78.4%
TRUE ML -363
9.0 point favorites
won 828 of 1037 SU
79.8%
TRUE ML -396
9.5 point favorites
won 782 of 947 SU
82.6%
TRUE ML -474
10.0 point favorites
won 663 of 790 SU
83.9%
TRUE ML -522
10.5 point favorites
won 592 of 688 SU
86.0%
TRUE ML -617
11.0 point favorites
won 486 of 557 SU
87.3%
TRUE ML -665
11.5 point favorites
won 429 of 493 SU
87.0%
TRUE ML -670
12.0 point favorites
won 351 of 401 SU
87.5%
TRUE ML -702
12.5 point favorites
won 416 of 460 SU
90.4%
TRUE ML -945
13.0 and 13.5 point favorites
won 407 of 440 SU
92.5%
TRUE ML -1233
14.0 point and up favorites
won 456 of 485 SU
94.0%
TRUE ML -1572
At the very least, this should provide a useful index for some folks. You can also use it in reverse -- for example, if you give a team a 35% chance of winning but want to play them ATS, how many points should you have in hand before you begin to feel comfortable? (Answer: greater than 5.0)
If I can find more October time, I hope to break out the last 3 seasons and also peek at home-road splits to see what sub-truths might lurk there.
(And I'd also like to figure out how Ganchrow gets his data posted inside those snazzy tables.)
More to come.
I'm thinking I'd now take the the lawyer-line up to -1400.
)
