The lines are LA -6 and CON -9.5. I have LA by 7 and CON by 9.5. No lineoffs to speak of. Based on a 7-13 season record for HF's in this situation I would fade LA, IF this weren't an absolute must-win for them. SEA may have LA's number, having beaten them 3 of 4 times this year, including the one game in LA. This will be one heck of a battle. SEA doesn't want game 3 at Staples Center, so they should be all-or-nothing mode as well.
I do have a total for the LA game that is significantly lower than the posted total of 151 or 150. For game one between these teams my projected total of 156 was exactly the same as the real total, which means that the system accurately reflects the tempo between these two teams.
How will LA approach a must win situation? With stingy defense. Here is how many points they have given up at home since 7/5: 62-60-64-62-58-59. Provided this will be a close game, ending within roughly a 10 pt spread, then even if LA would give up 65 points, that would give them about 75 points, for a total well under the posted total.
Nobody on an UNDER wants to see a lot of FT's. Especially in an elimination game a team can continue to foul at the end of the game, long after it no longer makes any sense. To avoid that I'm taking the UNDER for the 1H. The scenario that will beat this 1H UNDER is when both teams come out on fire. But I think that there is too much on the line for that, and that early nervousness (for at least one team) will prevent that.
LA 1H UNDER 72.5
Warning - This may have been overanalyzed. I usually don't like neatly packaged picks. I haven't placed the wager yet, and may just play LA to blow out SEA. lol.
I do have a total for the LA game that is significantly lower than the posted total of 151 or 150. For game one between these teams my projected total of 156 was exactly the same as the real total, which means that the system accurately reflects the tempo between these two teams.
How will LA approach a must win situation? With stingy defense. Here is how many points they have given up at home since 7/5: 62-60-64-62-58-59. Provided this will be a close game, ending within roughly a 10 pt spread, then even if LA would give up 65 points, that would give them about 75 points, for a total well under the posted total.
Nobody on an UNDER wants to see a lot of FT's. Especially in an elimination game a team can continue to foul at the end of the game, long after it no longer makes any sense. To avoid that I'm taking the UNDER for the 1H. The scenario that will beat this 1H UNDER is when both teams come out on fire. But I think that there is too much on the line for that, and that early nervousness (for at least one team) will prevent that.
LA 1H UNDER 72.5
Warning - This may have been overanalyzed. I usually don't like neatly packaged picks. I haven't placed the wager yet, and may just play LA to blow out SEA. lol.
