NEW HAMPSHIRE--5mike5

[5mike5]

sryy mati i feel asleep face first into my keyboard



ive only had 4-5 hrs sleep since monday morning waiting on the openers

[5mike5]

i decided to go ahead and take my biggest longshot this week:

JEFF BURTON (+4700)

only taking 1 more decent favorite, and 1 more double-digit mid range pick to fill out my roster...small 4 man roster this weeek probably, unless odds change dramatically after sessions

then im purely focusing on 2 or 3 big H2H matchups to max. a few times for the race

[Optional]

Hopefully 5D was just being extra careful this week. With the lower opener limits.

[Optional]

Still a weirdly short one.

Jimmie Johnson +600
Tony Stewart +700
Denny Hamlin +750
Jeff Gordon +800
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Kasey Kahne +1200
Brad Keselowski +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Martin Truex Jr +1500
Clint Bowyer +1500
Carl Edwards +1500
Ryan Newman +1800
Matt Kenseth +2500
Greg Biffle +2500
Joey Logano +3000
Jeff Burton +5000

There is only 32% over round in that market, so the prices themselves are still actually great as a group.

Although I don't usually catch the initial openers so dont have anything to compare to from other weeks.

5D work it out to about 45% over round by the time their market is set most weeks.

[MatI]

sryy mati i feel asleep face first into my keyboard



ive only had 4-5 hrs sleep since monday morning waiting on the openers

thats fine

[5mike5]

just woke up, ive got the list Mati

[5mike5]

keep in mind, these odds really dont reflect anything for this week as teams were running better/;worse, recent moimentum, ect....these were 5dimes openers for the CHASE race at loudon

jimmy +700
Gordon +650
Kyle +850
denny +1050
stewart +1200
harvick +1100
bowyer +1700
kurt busch +1550

[5mike5]

Although I don't usually catch the initial openers so dont have anything to compare to from other weeks.

openers is all i was talking about...

it was VERY ordinary compared to every other week of the season so far....and they are always better on the top 9/10 than any other book

om top of the other wierd things,i hope your are right and nothing is changing

[5mike5]

how the hell did BURTON go from +4700 to +2500 overnight??!!

that a crazy price now

[DDT]

how the hell did BURTON go from +4700 to +2500 overnight??!!

that a crazy price now

[5mike5]

glad i got burton at +4700....not too bad for my longshot "no way he wins without hell freezing over pick" this week

[Reno Paul]

Added Ryan Newman +1600......I normally don't take him, but this track is an exception.

[5mike5]

yeah im still not sold on newman at that price, but i could be if he got better

[yisman]

is there a place which lists what drivers are going for each race?

[5mike5]

...

[Optional]

is there a place which lists what drivers are going for each race?

No. Fields are announced the Monday before each race.

[MatI]

keep in mind, these odds really dont reflect anything for this week as teams were running better/;worse, recent moimentum, ect....these were 5dimes openers for the CHASE race at loudon

jimmy +700
Gordon +650
Kyle +850
denny +1050
stewart +1200
harvick +1100
bowyer +1700
kurt busch +1550

Thanks for this. Much appreciated.

I feel like taking Bowyer & Kahne this week, but im still undecided. I think i might just end up taking some H2H's.

[5mike5]

kasey kahne is a tough pick to win at NH

he has only 1 top 5 in his whole career here, and that was in 2004, and that 4th place finish is the best hes ever had...

only 1 finish inside the top 10(6th) in the last 11 races at NH i think

but i think every1 should always just go with what ur feeling no matter what so i say go 4 it...

[5mike5]

i think there will be some great H2H oppurtunitues as well Mati

[DDT]

We will kill it with H2H this week

[MatI]

kasey kahne is a tough pick to win at NH

he has only 1 top 5 in his whole career here, and that was in 2004, and that 4th place finish is the best hes ever had...

only 1 finish inside the top 10(6th) in the last 11 races at NH i think

but i think every1 should always just go with what ur feeling no matter what so...

haha, I need to stop posting until i've had my coffee in the morning. Kasey Kahne should be Denny Hamlin.

Do you put more weight on previous races or current season form? Or about equal?

I'm not sure if you agree but I classify Phoenix, Richmond and then Pocono, Kansas & Martinsville as the most similar tracks to NHMS. And looking at the winners of those four races:

Phoenix - Denny H
Richmond - Kyle
Kansas - Denny H
Pocono - Joey L
Martinsville - Ryan Newman (but race dominated by Hendrick cars)

Denny also has a pretty solid history at NHMS, 1 win, 4 top 5's in last 10. The above results from JGR this year make me feel like my money needs to be on their cars.

[5mike5]

i put more on prev. performance than anything..

i only compare NH to other short flat tracks, not 1.5 and 2.5 mile tracks, but thats just me

i seem to cap races alot diffetrent than most people do, just whatever works for each person....i go with whatever im "feeling" just as much as anything...i spend 30+ hours a week leading up to each weeks race deciding my picks so some think its crazy, but it works

[yisman]

No. Fields are announced the Monday before each race.

right, so where would I find who's racing this weekend?

[MatI]

Your strategy works, hence why I was asking! just going over the H2H's now...

[5mike5]

Your strategy works, hence why I was asking! just going over the H2H's now...

im going to wait and wait til raceday when ALL the H2H are released...at least right now thats my plan


**the biggest thing that turned my nascar betting around was NOT to let practice sessions dictate who u bet on...biggest mistakes i ever made in my early years betting nascar...thats why i already know my bets pretty much and make most bets early anyways...i look at 10-lap averages , but even that would not make me make a bet i didnt already like

[5mike5]

right, so where would I find who's racing this weekend?

nascar.com on bottom left of front page will show u the entry list for every series

[Reno Paul]

Looks like a good percentage of drivers are bringing in their Richmond or Martinsville cars to race this weekend from what I am reading.

[5mike5]

i also dont pay any attention at all to chassis selections, but some here find it helpful

some think new is better, some dont

if i did i would much rather have a winning or great performing chassis than a new 1, but like i said to me it makes no difference at all in my wagers

[5mike5]

but the way i see it, whatever works best for each person...no wrong way i guess as long as u are making great money

[5mike5]

**TRUCK series will be at IOWA speedway on FRIDAY night 8:30PM on SPEED channel

truck race is SATURDAY night at 8:30pm from iowa

not friday

[5mike5]

i was going to wait, but i found a H2H for the race i liked too much to pass up:


NEWMAN over Truex Jr. (-115)

to win max at this price

[5mike5]

i was going to wait, but i found a H2H for the race i liked too much to pass up:


NEWMAN over Truex Jr. (-115)

to win max at this price

also MAX win amount at (-130) too

[GP]

NEWMAN over Truex Jr. (-115)

to win max at this price

I like it Mike! Solid play. The tv show Seinfeld ruined the name Newman for me. Now when I hear it, I expect Jerry to say "Newman!" afterwards. lol!

Thanks Yisman, Mike, Vegas, & Paul for your answers regarding Vegas sportsbooks for Nascar. It's good to know that offshore is better.

[jimmy007oc]

it's -150 @5Dimes now.

[5mike5]

it's -150 @5Dimes now.

it always moves 20c when i max. a H2H