Pure Michigan 400

hawk 5 · 08-17-11, 07:14 AM

nice price on Vickers for a long shot.

Optional · 08-17-11, 07:30 AM

Good point. I was expecting him to be closer to +2000 when I chose the game matchups.

Books still have no confidence in BradK either. +900 for Kurt to +3000 for Brad seems out of whack to me.

hawk 5 · 08-17-11, 07:36 AM

Brad is rolling, but this is still a Rousch track.

hawk 5 · 08-18-11, 06:33 AM

Edwards +750, Vickers +5500, and Hamlin +850. Will add 1 more.

yisman · 08-18-11, 11:15 AM

So for this week I'm looking to find a lower-tier driver who might have a better chance than usual to finish in the top 15 or so.

Pretty much the only top guys I have left are Kyle and Gordon and I figure I may as well save them for a different track.

Obviously can only pick each guy once. I've already picked JJ, Kurt, Hamlin, Carl, Kenseth, Harvick, etc.

Should I take Vickers?

Optional · 08-18-11, 03:07 PM

If he looks good in practice. Hard to get a line on whats going on with him and team this year. But right now I'd be surprised if he missed top 15.

I'd think someone who still has a chance to grab a chase spot might be good to pick during these last few regular races. Ragan, Ambrose, Dinger, Bowyer, Biffle, Logano and especially Menard (who is closest to snatching the 2nd spot).

yisman · 08-18-11, 03:27 PM

definitely not ambrose. Couldn't even pick him this past week because I picked him in the first road race. Too bad. Wish I would've waited. Ambrose is never gonna be available for me in a non-road race.

Let's see what I have from that list.

Menard: used, 5th race
Ragan: used, 7th race
Allmendinger: available
Logano: used, 18th race
Bowyer: used, 17th race
Biffle: used, 13th race
Ambrose: used, 16th race

Optional · 08-18-11, 04:21 PM

Probably take Vickers and save Dinger for Atlanta or Chicago, which are among his best tracks.

yisman · 08-18-11, 04:25 PM

ok, thanks

Godsmack · 08-19-11, 05:08 AM

one of several solid fords will win this race

hawk 5 · 08-19-11, 06:55 AM

I like Vickers for your top 15 but there is a reason he's at +5500. If his car has no problems a top 5 should be where he finishes.

Optional · 08-19-11, 02:34 PM

You guys watching practice?

Did you hear Johnny Sauter call Robby "Mr Gordon"?

Just doesn't sound right when talking about that lunatic!

yisman · 08-19-11, 02:50 PM

nah, not watching. Been on the road today.

hawk, you're saying the odds are long because they're thinking he may have car problems?

hawk 5 · 08-20-11, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by yisman

nah, not watching. Been on the road today.

hawk, you're saying the odds are long because they're thinking he may have car problems?

No. Odds are long because Vickers Rarely runs up front and that team as a whole has under performed. BUT, Vickers loves this track and usually runs great here. His qualifying is usually up front. Not so this week and it's going to be a struggle for him. Top 15 is due-able though and as long as his car doesn't have issues he should run in top 10.

hawk 5 · 08-20-11, 06:11 AM

Originally posted by hawk 5

Edwards +750, Vickers +5500, and Hamlin +850. Will add 1 more.

Missed on Edwards and Vickers. Feel good about Hamlin, but did Edwards miss the meeting? Fords dominate qualifying and Edwards hits a 22nd? Come on 99, go talk to your team mates.

yisman · 08-21-11, 10:24 AM

5 Dimes has Vickers at 105/1 to win.

I'm going to take Brad K instead this week.

yisman · 08-21-11, 11:42 AM

5 Dimes

8/21/2011 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 8568 Dale Earnhardt Jr #88* +110 vs Tony Stewart #14

same odds at bodog

yisman · 08-21-11, 12:23 PM

it's been a while since Sprint Cup has been on broadcast TV. Every week for months it's been TNT or ESPN.

Looks like Saturday night Bristol is on ABC, though.

yisman · 08-21-11, 12:55 PM

37 laps in and already 7 scrubs out of it.

Field was a bad bet today because 25 drivers were listed.

Basically gave you scrubs for 35/1 and most probably won't even finish the race.

You'd be down to 11 drivers now, and I can promise Lally, Blaney, and Schrader aren't winning.

The only real news thus far is Carl Edwards is having car trouble and is in danger of being out of contention early.

Optional · 08-21-11, 01:02 PM

Who's in the field today?

You made a good call taking BradK instead of Vickers...

yisman · 08-21-11, 01:04 PM

Didn't look that hard. When I saw 25 were listed, I didn't even bother.

Just take the top 25 (in terms of odds) off the board and you're left with 18. Maybe 5 of those had any kind of shot at all.

Using Bodog's odds, this was roughly what you'd be getting (bolded guys=zero chance of finishing top 3, let alone winning. Many park):

Juan Pablo Montoya #42

80/1

Marcos Ambrose #9

80/1

A.J. Allmendinger #43

100/1

Trevor Bayne #21

100/1

Regan Smith #78

150/1

Bobby Labonte #47
500/1

Casey Mears #13
500/1

Landon Cassill #51
500/1

Travis Kvapil #38
750/1

Andy Lally #71
1000/1

Dave Blaney #36
1000/1

David Gilliland #34
1000/1

David Stremme #30
1000/1

J.J. Yeley #55
1000/1

Joe Nemechek #87
1000/1

Mike Skinner #60
1000/1

Todd Bodine #66
1000/1

Tony Raines #37
1000/1

wish there was a reverse field bet (like: bet against any of the bottom top guys finishing top 10)

yisman · 08-21-11, 01:30 PM

Brad flirting with last place (ignoring the parked guys and Carl).

Optional · 08-21-11, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by yisman

wish there was a reverse field bet (like: bet against any of the bottom top guys finishing top 10)

The field for a top 10 might be an interesting bet. Might be chalky lots of weeks though. This weeks lot has about 30 Top 10s this year between them.

hawk 5 · 08-22-11, 06:44 AM

Vickers did sneak in to 15th

yisman · 08-22-11, 09:09 AM

^ Yep, not terrible, but I wasn't going to take him after his odds skyrocketed.

Originally posted by Optional

The field for a top 10 might be an interesting bet. Might be chalky lots of weeks though. This weeks lot has about 30 Top 10s this year between them.

I'd bet it nearly every week. Bunch of bums who may not even be trying.

MysteryMung · 08-22-11, 11:50 PM

I took biffle at +2200 when odds first came out. I thought he was going to be unstoppable seeing as he was dominating at the beginning.

hawk 5 · 08-23-11, 06:34 AM

I missed by a mile myself.