Sprint Cup 2010 - Daytona Part Deux

[BadNina]

I am sooooo ready for this. One of my favorite races and one of my favorite night times one. It comes in second of the night races only to Bristol. TNN will have full coverage showing the whole race with commericals in a box. I hit McMurray in the 500 earlier this year and will have to give him a serious look this week too.


And isn't Jr racing the 3 in the Nationwide race this week?

[orlandito]

I always liked nascar and i loved betting on nascar :x and daytona part deux is the most exciting event for me :X

[CarolinaDaze]

Yeah i hit Jimmie 2 weeks ago for a nice profit. McMurray would probaly pay good 2. You know i keep hearing it over & over but Jeff Gordan is due ! Even hated driver Klye Bush might be worth a look.

[avssakic]

Should be an interesting race. Might take the weekend off and enjoy my success the past weeks because anything can happen at the restrictor plate races

[Optional]

Should be an interesting race. Might take the weekend off and enjoy my success the past weeks because anything can happen at the restrictor plate races

Good excuse to ride a longshot.

Here is a list of the drivers who qualify and finish better at Daytona than their overall averages.

First number is how much better they qualify, 2nd is how better they finish and 3rd number is their average finishing position at Daytona.

David Ragan 6% 35% 14.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30% 11% 14.9
Kevin Harvick 8% 1% 15.2
Todd Bodine 24% 25% 20.4
Robby Gordon 11% 20% 20.7
Marcos Ambrose 7% 3% 21.3
Paul Menard 12% 13% 22
A.J. Allmendinger 18% 2% 23.5
David Stremme 24% 7% 24.2
Michael McDowell 24% 18% 29


And here is the early market I've framed. It's purely based on statistics, and will change after practice/qualifying, so don't take it as Tips for the race. I just do it to work out what might be early value.

WR = How many rating points they have so far
IO = Impled Odds from rating
AO = Actual Odds available. (from bet365)
OR = Difference Actual to Implied



Basically I read that to say Johnson, Kurt Busch and Hamlin are at about the right odds. Kenseth, Edwards, Biffle, Bowyer and Burton are being offered at decent value (or my ratings are over-estimating the Roush and RCR team's chances) And, so far, Jeff Gordon is looking like the potential best lay of the race.

[hawk 5]

Always have to like Jeff's chances.

[your pixel army]

I know it's not really thinking outside the box, but... I like Stewart in this race. Big time.

[BadNina]

Me too Pixel. But after the 500 you cannot overlook Harvick here. He has been so consistent.

[Optional]

If Kenseth, Allmendinger, Truex or Ambrose look good during practice, one of them might be a long shot chance I think. Hard to totally ignore Ragan's good stats here too, and the books obviously agree as he's only about +3000, which seems a little tight to me.

[onlooker]

Should be an interesting race. Might take the weekend off and enjoy my success the past weeks because anything can happen at the restrictor plate races

I take restrictor plate races off myself. Crap shoot races.

Good luck everyone.

[BadNina]

Awwww come on Onlooker. Don't wuss out on me now. I neeeeeeeeeeed you.

[avssakic]

I agree onlooker anything and everything can and will happen at these tracks

[hawk 5]

I know it's not really thinking outside the box, but... I like Stewart in this race. Big time.

Probably be on Stewart myself.

[your pixel army]

Probably be on Stewart myself.

I think he'd be 100% willing to stick a nose to the inside of someone to wreck them for the win (again). I also think he's likely to be in the top 5-6 on the last lap and in a position to do so.

Only other one I feel the same way about is Kyle Busch.

[onlooker]

Awwww come on Onlooker. Don't wuss out on me now. I neeeeeeeeeeed you.

I may still look things over after practices, and come up with some leans.

[BadNina]

Just don't forget that last lap charge Jr made in February, going from 10th to 2nd. He admitted he mistimed it for the win. He will be thinking of that. If he and Stewart can hook up and stay together, it could be AWESOME!!!!

[avssakic]

Gordon is way overdue and might press for a win

[hawk 5]

Looks like there will be a lot of drivers in backup cars. Sometimes I wonder about Kyle. Bet Hamlin does too.

[Optional]

Did Hamlin get any laps in his backup car after the wreck?

[your pixel army]

Did Hamlin get any laps in his backup car after the wreck?

I think they actually ended practice after that.

[BadNina]

Wow....what a Nationwide race. I got choked up.

[onlooker]

Wow....what a Nationwide race. I got choked up.

I forgot all about the 3 car being drove today, until it was to late to bet. I might of put in a lone bet on the 3.

Maybe at the drivers meeting they were told not to press if the 3 was in front. I'm sure NASCAR really wanted to see it in victory circle again.

[CarolinaDaze]

Wow i was there, and didnt go in. Could have gotten me and my girl in for $20.

[rickie65]

I may still look things over after practices, and come up with some leans.

I actually try not to pay as much attention to practices for these plate races since it's often more of a crapshoot by the end and being in the right place/right time and good drafting is more important than showing the best practice speeds. I lean more towards track history, but anythings possible at Daytona

[onlooker]

I actually try not to pay as much attention to practices for these plate races since it's often more of a crapshoot by the end and being in the right place/right time and good drafting is more important than showing the best practice speeds. I lean more towards track history, but anythings possible at Daytona

Yeah I know it. That is why I choose to sit the weekend out and just enjoy the race without any wagers.

[BadNina]

I saw part of the practice from earlier today and Jr was running in the 20's but at this track that doesn't mean anything to me. He is so gifted on restrictor plates.

I wish I had put a little something on the 3 tonight. Logano would have been booed out of the joint if he had won. LOL...He said that he would have gone for the pass if the 6 had gone with him.

[Sawsi]

The nationwide race tonight was great. Although I don't care for Jr. all that much it was nice seeing him back in VL and especially in the 3. I loved seeing Nemechek run the full race and run it well (p16).

Back on topic for tomorrow, I like Stewart or a Penske car to pull it off.

[BadNina]

I think this is a Chevy weekend.

[avssakic]

Stewart - won 3 out of last 5 July races
Gordon - due and will be aggressive
ku busch - dodge / penske looks good
harvick - good plate racer, won dega

These are the ones I like but still other ones worth looking at like jr, ky busch, johnson. List goes on, that's why these races are a bitch to cap

[hawk 5]

Stewart - won 3 out of last 5 July races
Gordon - due and will be aggressive
ku busch - dodge / penske looks good
harvick - good plate racer, won dega

These are the ones I like but still other ones worth looking at like jr, ky busch, johnson. List goes on, that's why these races are a bitch to cap

Great list with great reasons. Can't find any odds yet.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Jimmie Johnson is heating up; tough to bet against him.

[Optional]

I ended up just backing the ones I thought were most over the odds.

Bowyer win +2500
Ambrose win +8000
Kenseth top3 +620
Biffle top3 +700

I also managed to lay against Gordon at +600 but you guys are making me think I should hedge that now, and back him at +1000

[hawk 5]

Harvick +900, Stewart +900, Kyle +1000, and Kurt +1200. GL all.

[hawk 5]

McMurray just doesn't get any respect.

[rickie65]

roush hasn't been great this year but they've been good at daytona with the COT so I took he 16, 17 and 99 all at 20-1 or more. Also went with the penske busch 12-1 and bowyer 20-1. I don't trust stewart with the backup or he would have been in my picks too. Hendrick will probably win now.....