NASCAR 2007 - FORD 400 - Homestead-Miami

[onlooker]

Homestead-Miami Speedway | Sunday, Nov. 18, 2007 3:30 PM ET

Pole Winner: Jimmie Johnson

Here are my fantasy five drivers for the final race of the Nascar season on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer
Carl Edwards
Martin Truex Jr.
Greg Biffle
Kasey Kahne

Who do you like?

[hawk 5]

No Hendricks? Your living large.

[onlooker]

No Hendricks? Your living large.

Last race of the season, and the two Hendricks leaders are probably going to be cautious so they don't make a mistake. No one either then Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon can win the championship on Sunday, so they will not want to make any mistakes. This allows me to stack my line up with guys who race well at Homestead.

I hope it works out.

[onlooker]

Jimmie Johnson wins the Pole for the Ford 400.

[hawk 5]

Still like your thinking looker, thought about Biffle before qualifing but now I don't know.

[Willie Bee]

Ford 400: Johnson Wraps It Up

Game Time: 11/18/2007 03:30 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

Jimmie Johnson only has to finish 18th or better in Miami Sunday to take home the Cup. Don't look for JJ to relax and take it easy, however, as he wants to win going away.

Last Week: For the Phoenix event, I said we'd specifically stay away from Jimmie Johnson because (a) his odds stunk, and (b) I didn't like his chances of winning a fourth straight Nextel Cup race.

Ooops.

Johnson did come through at +450, but we didn't have a piece of him. However, we did have Kyle Busch topping his big brother Kurt in a head-to-head match-up; Kyle finished eighth while Kurt finished 12th. That victory (at -175) gave us a weekly win, if only by the skin of our teeth.

For the week, we netted a positive .07 units on 1.5 units wagered (a 4.7% return), and for the season, we've profited a net 10.42 units on 52.5 units wagered (a 19.8% return).

This week at the Ford 400 on the Homestead-Miami Speedway, take Jimmie Johnson (+525), 1/6th unit: I relent. As the Nextel Cup series heads to its final race, in Homestead, Florida, J.J. has pretty much locked up his second consecutive points championship. All he has to do is finish 18th or better, and there's nothing that Jeff Gordon (+400) can do to catch him. But Johnson doesn't seem satisfied with merely winning the points title...he seems to want to make history.

If he wins at the high-banked oval in Miami this Sunday, he'll set a NASCAR record by winning a fifth straight race, something that hasn't been done in the modern era (dating well back into the 1970s). The Homestead track bears some similarities to the recently resurfaced Las Vegas Motor Speedway; they each are banked 20 degrees in the turns, and while LVMS is a bit steeper-banked in the straightaways, there are enough setup similarities that I believe this year's LVMS results are relevant. Guess who won Vegas in March?

Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit: You have to love the way Kenseth has run over the last month. He finished fourth in Atlanta, second at Texas and third last week in Phoenix; finally, after a season of mediocrity, the No. 17 has it dialed in. It won't do him any good in terms of yielding him a second points title, but he could very well win this race. He was fourth at the reconfigured Vegas this spring, and has finished third and sixth at Homestead the last two seasons.

Take Greg Biffle (+1220), 1/6th unit: The Biff is the three-time defending champion in Cup races at Homestead, and these odds would indicate that the Wise Guys don't think he can make it four in a row. While I understand that logic (it's a task on which very few have delivered), recall that Biffle probably had the best car late in Phoenix last week, and has improved his fortunes over the last couple months (although you can't really count Biffle's Kansas win as a great run, considering it was such a mess because of weather and vanishing daylight).

Roush Racing may not have the same downforce advantages it's had in previous years, but you can't make the argument that Biffle doesn't know how to get around this joint.

[dodif]

Ford 400: Johnson Wraps It Up

Game Time: 11/18/2007 03:30 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

Jimmie Johnson only has to finish 18th or better in Miami Sunday to take home the Cup. Don't look for JJ to relax and take it easy, however, as he wants to win going away.

Last Week: For the Phoenix event, I said we'd specifically stay away from Jimmie Johnson because (a) his odds stunk, and (b) I didn't like his chances of winning a fourth straight Nextel Cup race.

Ooops.

Johnson did come through at +450, but we didn't have a piece of him. However, we did have Kyle Busch topping his big brother Kurt in a head-to-head match-up; Kyle finished eighth while Kurt finished 12th. That victory (at -175) gave us a weekly win, if only by the skin of our teeth.

For the week, we netted a positive .07 units on 1.5 units wagered (a 4.7% return), and for the season, we've profited a net 10.42 units on 52.5 units wagered (a 19.8% return).

This week at the Ford 400 on the Homestead-Miami Speedway, take Jimmie Johnson (+525), 1/6th unit: I relent. As the Nextel Cup series heads to its final race, in Homestead, Florida, J.J. has pretty much locked up his second consecutive points championship. All he has to do is finish 18th or better, and there's nothing that Jeff Gordon (+400) can do to catch him. But Johnson doesn't seem satisfied with merely winning the points title...he seems to want to make history.

If he wins at the high-banked oval in Miami this Sunday, he'll set a NASCAR record by winning a fifth straight race, something that hasn't been done in the modern era (dating well back into the 1970s). The Homestead track bears some similarities to the recently resurfaced Las Vegas Motor Speedway; they each are banked 20 degrees in the turns, and while LVMS is a bit steeper-banked in the straightaways, there are enough setup similarities that I believe this year's LVMS results are relevant. Guess who won Vegas in March?

Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit: You have to love the way Kenseth has run over the last month. He finished fourth in Atlanta, second at Texas and third last week in Phoenix; finally, after a season of mediocrity, the No. 17 has it dialed in. It won't do him any good in terms of yielding him a second points title, but he could very well win this race. He was fourth at the reconfigured Vegas this spring, and has finished third and sixth at Homestead the last two seasons.

Take Greg Biffle (+1220), 1/6th unit: The Biff is the three-time defending champion in Cup races at Homestead, and these odds would indicate that the Wise Guys don't think he can make it four in a row. While I understand that logic (it's a task on which very few have delivered), recall that Biffle probably had the best car late in Phoenix last week, and has improved his fortunes over the last couple months (although you can't really count Biffle's Kansas win as a great run, considering it was such a mess because of weather and vanishing daylight).

Roush Racing may not have the same downforce advantages it's had in previous years, but you can't make the argument that Biffle doesn't know how to get around this joint.

those odds suck. must not live in vegas. Half the books wont even let me bet anymore

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sports/47606-biffle-kenseth-johnson.html

[louisvillekid]

those odds suck. must not live in vegas. Half the books wont even let me bet anymore

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sport...h-johnson.html

hey Dodif, thats probably because if you've picked JJ every race, your raping them. hell, he has like 10 wins, if you get 5/1 or 6/1 or even better each race, you could have bet him every race and still be ahead.

[dodif]

hey Dodif, thats probably because if you've picked JJ every race, your raping them. hell, he has like 10 wins, if you get 5/1 or 6/1 or even better each race, you could have bet him every race and still be ahead.

golden nugget told me to go somewhere else

fremont, binions told me to **** off

took 50 large from em. up 100,000 in the last two months

been making so much i went to the race last week and chartered a helicopter!

http://a801.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/27/l_d9f70f6580126c0f8334ad238f051ae0.jpg

Team Lowes baby! Like the gear?

[louisvillekid]

congrats man, i wish i had that kind of dough to lay or splurge with. Hendricks racing has just been a beast this season, seems like they had the "car of tomorrow" figured out before everyone else.
because I'm a Gibbs racing fan, my straight up picks have sucked, but i do all-right on head-to-head match ups.

[Willie Bee]

those odds suck. must not live in vegas. Half the books wont even let me bet anymore[/url]

Not sure where Gabrielle gets his lines, dodif, but he does live in the Vegas area. He's been doing fairly well this year on NASCAR. Congrats on your good run as well.

[hawk 5]

Johnson to win 4/1, Burton to win 18.5/1, kenseth to win 7/1, Kenseth top3 3/1, Kenseth top 5 2/1

[Scooter]

dodif - "...binions told me to **** off"

When did this occur?

[dodif]

this week

and by **** off i mean "We'll only take $300".

then i say "then why offer the line, $300 aint shit.

then they say "u can go bet it somehwhere else if u like"

so as i said they told me to **** off

I nailed em for $15000 on the race in phoenix last week

[hawk 5]

cool

[rugbybdyb]

too bad there is no real racing to talk about for the next two months....but I will tell you all that Im not a huger jr fan but I think that this move the hendricks will cause his carrerr to explode....after he gets throgh the bumps of the corporate side BS he will have the equipement etc. Maybe the first year will show gleams of greratness but I think from his scond year on he will not only be the fans fav driver, but the drivers who are die hard gordon and johnson will start rooting for him as well

[onlooker]

Clint Bowyer 39th
Carl Edwards 5th
Martin Truex Jr. 6th
Greg Biffle 13th
Kasey Kahne 24th

I forgot to update the results of my fantasy team for that week. Not very good, but it gained me some points.

See you all next season in NASCAR.

[dodif]

too bad there is no real racing to talk about for the next two months....but I will tell you all that Im not a huger jr fan but I think that this move the hendricks will cause his carrerr to explode....after he gets throgh the bumps of the corporate side BS he will have the equipement etc. Maybe the first year will show gleams of greratness but I think from his scond year on he will not only be the fans fav driver, but the drivers who are die hard gordon and johnson will start rooting for him as well

I'm a hendrick fan, now I'm a junior fan with this move

[rugbybdyb]

I'm a hendrick fan, now I'm a junior fan with this move

This will be happening a lot and we actually might get some cheers instead of booos when Gordon gets announced...

My fantasy team this year rocked....we lost four races the whole year, my team was hendrick pretty much...I had Jimmie Johnson, Gordon, Kyle bush, and jeff burton.....