Mick's Season Long Nascar Plays

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  • MickChunky
    SBR MVP
    • 10-31-06
    • 1452

    #1
    Mick's Season Long Nascar Plays
    Mostly do H2H match-ups, every once in while a top 3 if I can get a good price.

    I had big plans for this weekend, but they were cut short this morning when I had **** issues with every book I play at.

    So, I'm playing light this race, which is probably a good thing since it's a crapshoot anyways. I kind of ran out of time, didn't get much capping done, just going off what I remember over the last few seasons, plus practice/duels this weekend.

    H2H
    Jeff Burton +125 over Matt Kenseth -155 (Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 1.25 units
    Burton's looked good in practice and he's got a good group of people around, Kenseth is inconsistent at Daytona, I think the price is inflated due to his win last year.

    I was trying to find a good match-up against Jr.88 but I couldn't find one. I have no faith in this overrated driver and will continually pick against him with good odds throughout the year.

    Always open to others thoughts/plays, we're all here to win money!

    Good luck to all this weekend.
  • bluefish
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 04-13-09
    • 917

    #2
    gl ch
    Comment
    • MickChunky
      SBR MVP
      • 10-31-06
      • 1452

      #3
      Other than the delays to fix the track, I though it was a pretty exciting race. I don't like the new 3 tries at a G.W.C., Harvick should have won that race.

      Burton stayed inside the top 20 the whole race, while Kenseth was in the 30's and always about 10 positions behind Burton. I don't know where he came from at the end, but during that last restart he somehow got ahead of Burton. That's why I try not to go big on super speedways, the draft and all of the cautions at the end make it a crapshoot. Bad thing is, I was leaning McMurray today, not to win but in a few match-ups, I just couldn't pull the trigger with him being in a new car this year. Oh well

      Not a good way to start out, but it's a long season. I hope to get some research done this week and come up with a few short write-ups next week. Cali is not one of my favorite tracks, but a little more predictable than Daytona.
      Comment
      • THE PROFIT
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-27-09
        • 17701

        #4
        Good thing you didn't bet against Jr. today bro! If he'd had another half lap it was his
        Comment
        • whatsgood5
          Restricted User
          • 10-13-09
          • 15359

          #5
          GL in this thread Mick
          Comment
          • MickChunky
            SBR MVP
            • 10-31-06
            • 1452

            #6
            Originally posted by whatsgood5
            GL in this thread Mick
            Thanks man, I've been a big Nascar fan for a long time, over the past few years I've kinda lost my excitement. I've never bet much on Nascar, but I really want to follow this season, plus I feel there is some good money to be made in H2H match-ups. I wish lines came up earlier but it does give me something to do Sunday mornings. I finally got reloaded at Bookmaker so all lines I post will be from there.
            Comment
            • MickChunky
              SBR MVP
              • 10-31-06
              • 1452

              #7
              WTF no head to head on Bookmaker or 5Dimes? I see BoDog has H2H up.
              Maybe they'll put them up later
              Comment
              • MickChunky
                SBR MVP
                • 10-31-06
                • 1452

                #8
                Leans
                Kyle Busch -105 over Jeff Gordon
                Greg Biffle -105 over Denny Hamlin
                Harvick -130 over Jeff Burton
                Kurt Busch -155 over Ryan Newman
                Comment
                • MickChunky
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-31-06
                  • 1452

                  #9
                  Bookmaker H2H is up
                  Harvick over Burton is -145 at BM, too much for me.
                  Couldn't find Biffle over Hamlin/ scratch Kurt Busch over Newman

                  I'm going with
                  Kyle Busch +/-even over Jeff Gordon 1 unit
                  Carl Edwards -110 over Kurt Busch 2 units
                  Comment
                  • MickChunky
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-31-06
                    • 1452

                    #10
                    Carl Edwards is going to win this race, or at least be up there at the end
                    ***You can get him at +330 to finish top 5***
                    @ Auto Club Speedway
                    W T5 T10 Avg. F
                    1 6 10 6.6

                    In his 11 races there, he has one finish out of the top 10, 6 inside the top 5, and the other 4 are 6 or 7th place. No matter where he starts he always runs good there.

                    Carl Edwards Finish Top 5 +330 1 unit
                    Comment
                    • MickChunky
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-31-06
                      • 1452

                      #11
                      Originally posted by MickChunky
                      Leans
                      Kyle Busch -105 over Jeff Gordon
                      Greg Biffle -105 over Denny Hamlin
                      Harvick -130 over Jeff Burton
                      Kurt Busch -155 over Ryan Newman
                      If I would have done these, I would have gone 4-0 today
                      These were all from BoDog, I couldn't find these on BM, looks like I need more than one book for Nascar lines.

                      Instead I got caught up in Edwards past performances and got greedy with 2 units on him over Kurt Busch
                      Kyle hit, but I'm still down 2 units H2H on the year. At least Nascar has a long season!

                      Off next week, looking forward to Vegas
                      Comment
                      • your pixel army
                        Restricted User
                        • 12-15-09
                        • 454

                        #12
                        I'm curious how long Edwards is going to be in this funk.
                        Comment
                        • MickChunky
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-31-06
                          • 1452

                          #13
                          Originally posted by your pixel army
                          I'm curious how long Edwards is going to be in this funk.
                          He didn't qualify good at Cali, but he slowly made his way up the field. He was in the top 10 when Denny ran into him, his splitter cut Hamlin's tire, but didn't seem to mess up Carl's car. He never got back in the top 10 though.
                          Comment
                          • MickChunky
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-31-06
                            • 1452

                            #14
                            Great article on Nascar.com talking about who's hot and who's not right now.
                            Comment
                            • avssakic
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-12-07
                              • 1795

                              #15
                              good find
                              Comment
                              • MickChunky
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-31-06
                                • 1452

                                #16
                                Didn't see a whole lot I like today.

                                Clint Bowyer -120 over Juan Pablo 1 unit
                                Ryan Newman +115 over Dale Jr. 1 unit
                                Comment
                                • avssakic
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-12-07
                                  • 1795

                                  #17
                                  Like that bowyer matchup and I'm playing that as well but got a little better odds
                                  Comment
                                  • MickChunky
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-31-06
                                    • 1452

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by avssakic
                                    Like that bowyer matchup and I'm playing that as well but got a little better odds
                                    Yeah, it moved on me right before I made my decision. Where did you get it at?
                                    Comment
                                    • MickChunky
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-31-06
                                      • 1452

                                      #19
                                      Late addition: Tony Stewart -135 over Denny Hamlin 1 unit

                                      I hate laying anything over -130, but I feel this one is sure winner. Stewart has looked good in practice, Denny qualified bad/didn't run well last week.
                                      Comment
                                      • MickChunky
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-31-06
                                        • 1452

                                        #20
                                        2-1 +1unit, could have gone 3-0. Newman ran great in the first part of the race, tailed off at the end, although he did get ahead of Jr. during that last restart but couldn't hold it.

                                        Harvick is kickin ass, I need to start finding good match-ups for him. It's tough though, I've been a Harvick fan for 9 years and I don't like to be a homer and bet my team. I feel he can win every race, so I try to take the emotion out of it, but he is on fire this season in both series.
                                        Comment
                                        • MickChunky
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-31-06
                                          • 1452

                                          #21
                                          Atlanta

                                          Jeff Gordon -110 over Mark Martin 1unit
                                          Kyle Busch -125 over Kevin Harvick 1 unit
                                          Dale Jr. -140 over Matt Kenseth 1 unit

                                          Going against Harvick and for Jr. here, something must be wrong with me. I won't get to see most of the race, so at least I won't have to agonize over it.
                                          Comment
                                          • MickChunky
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-31-06
                                            • 1452

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by MickChunky
                                            Going against Harvick and for Jr. here, something must be wrong with me. I won't get to see most of the race, so at least I won't have to agonize over it.
                                            I should have listened to my gut, 1-2
                                            Comment
                                            • avssakic
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-12-07
                                              • 1795

                                              #23
                                              yea i hate when i second guess myself
                                              Comment
                                              • MickChunky
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-31-06
                                                • 1452

                                                #24
                                                Kurt Busch -125 over Jeff Burton 1 unit
                                                Mark Martin -105 over Jeff Gordon 1 unit

                                                Trying to stick with guys that qualified/practiced well. I don't want anything to do with the guys in the back at Bristol. Harvick and Kyle have a long day ahead of them.
                                                Comment
                                                • MickChunky
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-31-06
                                                  • 1452

                                                  #25
                                                  Went 1-1 today, Mark Martin got caught up with Biffle who had no radio communication, that's Bristol.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MickChunky
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-31-06
                                                    • 1452

                                                    #26
                                                    Mark Martin -105 over Tony Stewart 2 units
                                                    Kevin Harvick -115 over Juan Pablo Montoya 2 units

                                                    Really love these lines today, I really wanted to find a good match-up for Hamlin but the juice was too high.

                                                    Juan Pablo practiced well, but he's starting 22nd while Harvick is on the pole. Harvick had that truck dialed in yesterday, and he's been practicing well.
                                                    Mark Martin, he might win this thing today. Stewart has not looked good in practice, I really think Mark has a good run today.
                                                    Both of these are for 2 units, trying to get back to positive units
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MickChunky
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-31-06
                                                      • 1452

                                                      #27
                                                      SBR Nascar lines!!!

                                                      Odds to win +500 Hamlin, +1500 Martin, just for fun 10pts. each
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bigdaddyjames
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-17-09
                                                        • 3179

                                                        #28
                                                        i am hoping to see Joey Logano to win and if not him them Jeff Gordon ......
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MickChunky
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-31-06
                                                          • 1452

                                                          #29
                                                          I'd like to see Logano win a full race, seems like a nice kid with tons of talent
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chiliv5
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 02-16-10
                                                            • 1273

                                                            #30
                                                            yup
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KC
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-12-07
                                                              • 1613

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by MickChunky
                                                              I'd like to see Logano win a full race, seems like a nice kid with tons of talent
                                                              Not sure yet about him, he inherited a pretty good car
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MickChunky
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-31-06
                                                                • 1452

                                                                #32
                                                                Finally, I have bad luck and still come out on top. I'll take it, been burned a few times this year at the end of races. That ending was exciting, I didn't think Denny could make it back up there after pitting.

                                                                2-0 +4 units
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MickChunky
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-31-06
                                                                  • 1452

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Mark Martin +105 over Kurt Busch 2 units
                                                                  Ryan Newman -110 over Jamie McMurray 2units

                                                                  Really like these two, couldn't find a good line for Burton. I'd like to go against Hamlin here but the juice is so high, Harvick is the lowest at -125.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MickChunky
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-31-06
                                                                    • 1452

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Both guys finishing in the top 5! I'll take it. Pretty good race Kyle should not have pitted at the end...what were they thinking? UP 4.10 units on the night
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MickChunky
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-31-06
                                                                      • 1452

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Not really feeling this race, found two matchups that I kind of like. I should just go half a unit in these since I don't feel strong about either of them, but I'll probably still do a unit each.

                                                                      Biffle -115 over Edwards 1 unit
                                                                      Kyle Busch -115 over Jeff Gordon 1 unit
                                                                      Comment
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