MICHIGAN (Firekeepers 400)

[5mike5]

Alright fellas we are headed to MICHIGAN International Speedway this weekend, and also have a weekend triple-header on tap..The truck series will be racing at Texas motor speedway on Friday night on FS1 at 9pm, the Xfinity series will be on Saturday at 1:30PM on FOX, and we will finish up with the CUP series race on Sunday on FOX at 2PM...Next weekend will be an Off weekend for the series for fathers day weekend...

MICHIGAN is a 2 mile D-shaped asphalt oval...The banking in all the turns is 18 degrees, 12 degrees at the start/finish line section, and just 5 degrees of banking on the backstretch...This racetrack is very wide and can have many different grooves, but just like Pocono it can be single file racing but have a feeling PJ1 will be used this week...Tire wear is a HUGE factor at MIS and being 2 miler strategy and pit stops can and usually play a factor.


Look for mostly the same cast of drivers we have seen all year be the sane favs this week so probably have to get creative to have more than 2 of them but with 2 races before cup we will have our chances...Kyle busch usually isnt been very good here historically though...


GOODLUCK this week!!!

[5mike5]

few early driver stats from my MIS notebook:

Kyle Larson has WON 3 races in a row @ Michigan and is the for sure 2 mile king right now...3 wins total is tied with Kurt B. as the the only active drivers with 3 wins at MIS..


Harvick in his last 10 Michigan races has 5 runner-up finishes and 7 of those 10 were top 5s, but he only has 1 Win at Michigan in his 34 starts


Elliott has 3 top 5s here out of 4 career MIS races


Truex Jr. has NEVER won a race at Michigan in 24 career starts

[5mike5]

Kyle Busch last 10 MIS finishes:

10th, 7th, 19th, 40th, 11th, 43rd, 39th, 41st, 31st, 4th

as u can see not very good at all, but he does have 1 win here in his career back in 2011

[5mike5]

the field for the XFINITY race is stacked this week:

Kyle Busch, Menard, Harvick, A.Dillon and Bowman

[Optional]

Interesting stats.

Larson/Elliot sound good. But is Chevy good enough to get either home just yet?

[5mike5]

Interesting stats.

Larson/Elliot sound good. But is Chevy good enough to get either home just yet?

thats the problem not sure. Even though both have been better lately and the class of Chevys overall they still clearly are behind top 3 speed wise. But maybe being that 2 milers both Larson and Elliott's best track type by far may make the difference up? Just Not sure but this will be a good measuring stick

[5mike5]

Logano also been real strong here too, 3 last 4 top 10s 2 of 4 top 5s, including a win (2 in 18 career starts) and actually Logano has lead the most laps in that last 4 races here span as well

[reigle9]

odds will be interesting at the top

will it be the standard harvick, kb, truex, larson order or will larson be at the top?

[5mike5]

Wouldnt.be surprised to see Larson lower than busch maybe, but harvick will be the fav as usual. Hell maybe same 3 then larson way its going

[5mike5]

Great number on Elliott +2250......

may get better # later but i was expecting lower so I had to take it early

[Optional]

NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400

Kevin Harvick +350
Kyle Busch +500
Martin Truex Jr +500
Kyle Larson +650
Ryan Blaney +1350
Brad Keselowski +1350
Joey Logano +1650
Denny Hamlin +1750
Erik Jones +2200
Chase Elliott +2200
Clint Bowyer +2750
Kurt Busch +3250
Aric Almirola +4200
Jimmie Johnson +4200
Daniel Suarez +6500
Alex Bowman +8500
Jamie McMurray +11500
Austin Dillon +12000
Paul Menard +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000
Ryan Newman +15000
William Byron +20000
Matt Kenseth +35000
Kasey Kahne +55000
Darrell Wallace Jr +55000
AJ Allmendinger +105000
Chris Buescher +105000
Ty Dillon +210000
Michael McDowell +210000

[5mike5]

bout to grab Larson too, cant help myself i dont think

2 lower series races though so gonna gun for a couple parlays instead of taking much early but there a couple I like though

[Optional]

Man I hate not being on the same side as you Mike, but just can't see any Chevy being able to close it out on a power track like this.

I'm thinking Jones' stats don't look bad again this week though. It's his best track where he has raced more than once in Cup. If you re-watch races maybe keep an eye on him for me?

[Optional]

[pimike]

Man I hate not being on the same side as you Mike, but just can't see any Chevy being able to close it out on a power track like this.

I'm thinking Jones' stats don't look bad again this week though. It's his best track where he has raced more than once in Cup. If you re-watch races maybe keep an eye on him for me?

I think Optional has the right feeling on Jones. I was thinking same. However Mike is the guru.

[5mike5]

Man I hate not being on the same side as you Mike, but just can't see any Chevy being able to close it out on a power track like this.

I'm thinking Jones' stats don't look bad again this week though. It's his best track where he has raced more than once in Cup. If you re-watch races maybe keep an eye on him for me?

This year My thing about Jones is he never brings it on raceday. Practices great looks good on thr sheets, but never that good the next day and always under shows.

Watched both races already from.last year and he did look good in both (jones) Like u said he did well here last year. Doubtful either wins. LOL

As far as Elliott just a longershot. In case something happens late i think he will be up there. Last time ill have him til august. Hes also.just really good here in his 4 starts

[5mike5]

few early driver stats from my MIS notebook:

Kyle Larson has WON 3 races in a row @ Michigan and is the for sure 2 mile king right now...3 wins total is tied with Kurt B. as the the only active drivers with 3 wins at MIS..


Harvick in his last 10 Michigan races has 5 runner-up finishes and 7 of those 10 were top 5s, but he only has 1 Win at Michigan in his 34 starts


Elliott has 3 top 5s here out of 4 career MIS races


Truex Jr. has NEVER won a race at Michigan in 24 career starts

.....

.

[5mike5]

F1

Hams +135

[pimike]

That’s what I love about Mike’s capping abilities he looks at every little thing he doesn’t get fooled by practice runs, he looks at every little thing past experiences present experience and how the cars are running, Pitt teams.
Shoot he probably even knows which driver had sex last night that’s how good he is..

[5mike5]

Xfinity:

Harvick (+625)

just thought this was a great price...sure ill parlay Kyle on raceday and probably take 1 more early single

[Optional]

tailed that one at +625. He's +400-450 elsewhere.

I don't mind betting against Kyle in Xfin cars this year. JGR haven't been all that like previous years.

Daytona	Tyler Reddick	Chevrolet
Atlanta	Kevin Harvick	Ford
Las Vegas	Kyle Larson	Chevrolet
Phoenix	Brad Keselowski	Ford
Fontana	Joey Logano	Ford
Fort Worth	Ryan Blaney	Ford
Bristol	Ryan Preece	Toyota
Richmond	Christopher Bell	Toyota
Talladega	Spencer Gallagher	Chevrolet
Dover	Justin Allgaier	Chevrolet
Charlotte	Brad Keselowski	Ford
Pocono	Kyle Busch	Toyota

[reigle9]

Also took harvick but feel like about 7 guys could win.

[Optional]

F1

Hams +135

I'm really keen on him to win in Montreal.

He and the car is so good at the track my brain has been telling me to go big on him all week, but my gut has been telling me not to go overboard with Ferrari being better this year and Merc looking awful on the new Hypersoft tires last race. But a Ferrari has not won in Canada since Schumacher in 2004. It's just not a track that seems to lend itself to their style of car designs.

I honestly don't think those tires will be as big an issue at this track, and whilst I think Ferrari could sneak pole, the Mercedes race pace has seen Hamilton cruise home with 30 seconds plus on the non-Mercs in his last 3 wins from pole.

Anyway, kind of hoping Vettel gets pole so Hamilton odds improve and I have had a chance to see how they practice on the tires and what tire strategy might be.

YEAR	WINNER	START	TEAM
2007-06	Lewis Hamilton	1	McLaren MP4-22 / Mercedes FO 108T
2008-07	Robert Kubica	2	BMW Sauber F1.08 / BMW P86/8
2010-08	Lewis Hamilton	1	McLaren MP4-25 / Mercedes FO 108X
2011-07	Jenson Button	7	McLaren MP4-26 / Mercedes FO 108Y
2012-07	Lewis Hamilton	2	McLaren MP4-27 / Mercedes FO 108Z
2013-07	Sebastian Vettel	1	Red Bull RB9 / Renault RS27-2013
2014-07	Daniel Ricciardo	6	Red Bull RB10 / Renault Energy F1-2014
2015-07	Lewis Hamilton	1	Mercedes F1 W06 / Mercedes PU106A
2016-07	Lewis Hamilton	1	Mercedes F1 W07 / Mercedes PU106C
2017-07	Lewis Hamilton	1	Mercedes F1 W08 / Mercedes M08 EQ Power+

[Optional]

Added Kimi Raikkonen +1200 for fastest lap.

[5mike5]

Might have to have kimi FL as well if his odds are still there in morning

[5mike5]

Xfinity:

Harvick (+625)

just thought this was a great price...sure ill parlay Kyle on raceday and probably take 1 more early single

added:

Menard (+825)


Menard>A.Dillon(-135)
B.Jones>Reddick(+105)
open



Menard>A.Dillon(-135)...2X mx



That's it til I decide if i am parlaying Kyle B. or not on Saturday

[5mike5]

weather looks very wet Saturday

[Optional]

weather looks very wet Saturday

Of course. NASCAR race in the area.

[Optional]

Menard>A.Dillon(-135)...2X mx

Do you like Menard or are you fading Dillon?

Menard record very solid here in Xfin which he races every year, but Dillon has 2 poles from 3 races back in his Xfin days and a decent record in Cup at Michigan.

[unlearn]

I parlayed Gragson +200 with Lewis +135 at Bovada (+605). Had to reload there after my Cavs let me down

[unlearn]

If that d-bag Sauter wins again I am swearing off trucks

[unlearn]

Opti any cause for concern with Merc not bringing the upgrade this weekend?

[Optional]

Opti any cause for concern with Merc not bringing the upgrade this weekend?

Unexpected but if there are any doubts I think they might still swap on Friday night.

Seems to be lots of "stories" about engines and penalties going around this weekend. Red Bull playing media games with Ricciardo status as well.

[reigle9]

Added Kimi Raikkonen +1200 for fastest lap.

how about +900?

If that d-bag Sauter wins again I am swearing off trucks

that's who i'm going with if odds get bet-able

[Optional]

how about +900?

That's the minimum he would be any value at. I probably would not bet it yet personally. I only jumped for the +1200