Kentucky - Quaker State 400

**Crony** · 06-26-14, 09:13 PM

Menard top 5 6/1 or top 3 10/1 both look good.

**Robber** · 06-27-14, 12:45 AM

Oops I accidentally sent you points for Opt's game

**Optional** · 06-27-14, 03:05 AM

Man I did crap on the trucks. 1-4 on head to heads. But at least backed Kyle as a saver so came out about square.

**Optional** · 06-28-14, 05:33 AM

Kyle Busch +1200
Kurt Busch +2850

Were my early bets.

Mike sounds like he likes BradK. Or a Penske win in a parlay. So will tail that. But not feeling very strong about any of the other faves right now.

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 11:46 AM

Seeing some 3/1 and 3.5/1 on BK, probably best car but no value at those prices.
Practice daytime, race night time.

This year at the bigger tracks, starting position of race winner and Happy Hour Fast Lap/Ten Lap Average

Start Happy Hour Ten Lap
Las Vegas 2 2 4
California 13 12 14
Texas 10 17 x - no ten lap run
Kansas 13 6 x - no ten lap run
Charlotte 1 30 4
Pocono 8 6 1
Michigan 7 4 x - no ten lap run

Don't really get the appeal of a Parlay with Keselowski if his base odds are 4/1.
If you have some other leg of a parlay that is such a sure thing, just play that.
Why tie in BK at negative equity?

**Optional** · 06-28-14, 01:13 PM

I think the penske win in a parlay idea was as a cover. I still do like that as a cheap way to try to cover Penske. If the H2H is genuinely +EV it's mathematically sound to parlay with it. Sure it won't win as often as a straight H2H or win bet, but it's not expected to. Anyway, whatever, I still like it.

But I'm not interested in Brad at those odds either.

Thanks for posting those stats. What do you make of them as far as betting this race?

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 01:40 PM

Ryan Newman in an interview yesterday said about Kentucky "Well it really is a big circle with the exception of the back straightaway. So that’s one of the biggest things. It’s got a D-shape appearance from the sky, but it drives like a big circle with a small straight."

Makes me think the Hendrick horsepower edge will be less pronounced here, brings other drivers into play.
There is a group a little better than everybody else this year at these track types, Keselowski, Harvick, Johnson, Logano, Gordon, Dale Jr (not this week).

Taking Jr from the mix, any of those 5 week in week out have a shot (obviously Johnson has been the best, but Harvick usually has the best car).

I would want something in 8/1 to 12/1 range on one of those drivers this week.

I think both of your early bets are decent, more so the Kurt Busch play who has been mostly lousy this year.

Last year Kenseth won the race qualifying 16th with a 20th Happy hour speed and 15 in P1.
Obviously he was great at these track types and the practices did not mean a lot.

The top 5 last year, McMurray last year was 7th in 10 lap happy hour run, Kyle Busch was HH 3, P1 6 with a ten lap of 1.
None of the other top 5 had top ten times in the practices.

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 01:45 PM

Long story short, think there are a lot of drivers in play tonight.
If I could get Kenseth at 12 I would bet him.

Tempted by Larson @ 20/1. Will end up taking a bunch of that.

**Optional** · 06-28-14, 02:19 PM

Good post.

I heard Newman say that.

Be interesting to see if your logic holds up on the horsepower edge.

Betting Dixon and Kanaan in Indycars about to start.

**Optional** · 06-28-14, 02:22 PM

I like the way Ganassi team has been progressing this year. Nether Larson or McMurray saluting would shock me tonight.

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 02:30 PM

Agree, having been eyeing McMurray. He was pretty good at the All Star race once he had track position.
2nd last year at this track.
14/1 for top 3 has some appeal.

In his career, he has 7 wins, 9 2nd's, 9 3rd's.
25 top 3's in 418 starts, break even for top 3 = 16.72.

Only 9 of his 25 top 3's have come at the bigger tracks (not plate/short/intermediate).
The big tracks make up about 45% of the schedule so he has underperformed.

Seems like he has found a rhythm last 6 races, probably need a little better than 14/1 or 40/1 but it is close.

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 03:40 PM

Kasey Kahne top 3, 6/1 (I would take 5/1)

There is a group odds out there where you can take Keselowski at 3/1 vs. Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, and Logano.
Like that a lot better than a parlay of Keselowski at 4/1 with something else.

**kcburg** · 06-28-14, 04:03 PM

good stuff gang...

**homervdoh** · 06-28-14, 04:15 PM

Brad k +310 to win race +320 to win group a makes sense

**Crony** · 06-28-14, 05:29 PM

Roush is Junk... Hendrick Horsepower is the best...

Kurt Busch has 10 finishes of 21st or worse in 16 starts.
Edwards is 12 and 4 head up vs Busch on the year.
At night races this year, Edwards is 5-0.

Taking Edwards +1.70 vs Kurt Busch.

**Optional** · 06-29-14, 08:40 AM

Well that was kind of a shitty race weekend all over for me.

Anyone having a bet on Indycars today?

I'm betting Dixon and Kanaan again, plus Briscoe. And taking Will Power to break even. for what its worth.