My Motorsport 2013

[Optional]

Just asked for a B365 withdraw to fund Uwin. If it comes through fast enough I will split 3 units over these guys evenly for +230 if any of them win.

Busch, Kyle +1050
Kenseth, M +1300
Stewart, T +1600
Biffle, G +2000
McMurray, J +2500


Only picked them out due to the over odds at Uwin though.

[Optional]

I really like that Danica prop.

Yeah, I'm all about fading her anywhere. This is going to be such a tough race to finish if you in the top 20 come the last 20-30 laps... even if she makes it that far.

[MatI]

Ive taken that prop... thanks for pointing that one out. I've also taken Stenhouse H2H.

GL today mate.

[Optional]

Ive taken that prop... thanks for pointing that one out. I've also taken Stenhouse H2H.

GL today mate.

Good luck matI

Wish i was an sensible as you. Was almost not going to bet much at all but temptation got me and I went with the 5 above.

Plus added an extra .5u on Smoke +1600

[Optional]

Not a great start to the year. But it was fun at least

[Optional]

Phoenix Nationwide race.

I like this track a lot personally. And being so different to Daytona it feels like getting to watch the first race of an entirely different series with them back to back.

The track was changed in 2011 so we only have 3 races on this config, but I don't think the changes have changed the pecking order there much so long term stats are still somewhat useful. I start out looking for guys who have better than personal average in qualifying and the race here and at Richmond or Martinsville or New Hampshire, or maybe Pocono and Indy if short on data to work with.

Last year Logano in the #18 just dominated, leading most of the race followed by Joe Gibbs team mate Vickers in his debut in the #20.

No entry list out yet, and I've only had a quick look over things so far, But early lean is Vickers in the #20.

Anyone else have some thoughts to throw into the mix before I start making my mind up about stuff?

[Optional]

Another 'funny' angle I think might be useful to look at for this one is what teams have managed to lead laps here since the config change. As I think that if the changes did happen to suit someone more than another looking at teams that were strong enough to hold the lead in those races might be more insightful than finish positions.

Anyway, these guys/teams have led

Joey Logano JGR
Denny Hamlin JGR
Brian Vickers JGR

Kevin Harvick RCR
Elliott Sadler RCR

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Roush
Trevor Bayne Roush

Sam Hornish, Jr. Penske
Brad Keselowski Penske

Aric Almirola JRM

[shaunovery]

Bad race to start the year down about 1200 pound and my fab driver beats me( god knows why I didn't back him)

[Optional]

Bad race to start the year down about 1200 pound and my fab driver beats me( god knows why I didn't back him)

I didn't want to say it, but after first 2 practices a week or so ago I said to myself. "Gee those hendrick cars have great speed and seem to be working to a very definite/different plan to everyone else. I should back Jimmie and Junior at the least".

But forgot about that by race day.

I went small though so am cool still.

Sorry to see you get trashed after your great start to year.

[shaunovery]

[QUOTE=Optional;17918642]I didn't want to say it, but after first 2 practices a week or so ago I said to myself. "Gee those hendrick cars have great speed and seem to be working to a very definite/different plan to everyone else. I should back Jimmie and Junior at the least".

But forgot about that by race day.

I went small though so am cool still.

Sorry to see you get trashed after your great start to year. [/QUOT

i saw that the #48 was availble at 16-1 at one point im going to rue that decision for a long while

[Optional]

i think the odds tricked me into not considering him :\

[GP]

dam. trucks don't race again for another 6 weeks. @martinsville.

[Optional]

Not motorsport, and I know it's not really cool to talk about your bets after winning, but I'm going to anyway.

There is a 2nd level tennis tourney about 15 mins from home this week with a young Aussie player named Kyrgios who might be our next big thing playing. So I decided to go watch his match today.

Started capping the 16 matches that were on there today and was starting to get confused as I moved down the list and almost every match felt like the bookies had the obvious favorite as the dog.

Honestly I just figured it was me capping badly, and it kind of made me unsure if I should bother betting anything.

Just for a lark I thought I'll just parlay the 8 really strong dog leans for a buck... and as an after thought I thought "would hate to lose this by 1 leg"... so I took them as 8 x 7 leggers for 50c each too. Cost $5, potential $4,000... ah why not.

Anyway, 2 legs were void due to retirements, but as you have probably guessed the other 6 dogs got up to give me 1 x 6 leg winner and 8 x 5 leg winners for $940 profit.

It's not the amount that pleases me so much, it's the timing. The bankroll was looking a bit insipid for the start of car season at just $500 this morning, and I just HATE having to deposit fresh funds. Haven't done it in a long time and don't want to start now. So a $950 winner is such a good thing for me right now! It means I will be able to risk at least double what I what I would have been on motorsport. Plus it's just cool to feel like you out-capped the bookies sooooo badly

[MatI]

Unreal!!

[5mike5]

Nice hit opti. Gotta love that

[Vegas39]

Very nice Opti

[Optional]

Thanks guys.

got one to repeat today if you are jonesing for action

2/26/2013 6:00 PM Challenger Tennis 705 Sanam Singh* +155 vs James Duckworth

[Optional]

We have some Nationwide odds at 5D


Nationwide Dollar General 200
Fri 3/1 12:00PM

Jimmie Johnson +425
Kyle Busch +425
Matt Kenseth +450
Kevin Harvick +550
Brad Keselowski +650
field (any other driver) +850
Brian Vickers +875
Elliott Sadler +1300
Austin Dillon +1300
Trevor Bayne +1600
Sam Hornish Jr +2300
Regan Smith +2500
Justin Allgaier +2700

[Optional]

Getting started with...


Nationwide Motor Racing Dollar General 200 : Brian Vickers +875 .5u


And hoping price on Kenseth drifts a little bit.

Feeling it for Bayne as well...

[fitguy67]

Enjoying the thread and the education that comes with it...another noob question coming up...

It seems to me that in general--ie. most of the time, and especially true the higher the race's profile=the better known are the drivers...
that "long term" (over the course of a season at least)...the FIELD (anyone other than a specifically "lined" driver) bet is +eV

I gather that there will be long waits between wins by a "nobody", so the stakes u throw at this bet if you were playing this "one spin a week" slot machine u'd have to keep the "coin size" small...

it seems to me that the low% rate of a team-Field nobody hitting should be consistently higher than the rate that the large-negative odds imply...cuz u got lotsa square $ being automatically channelled onto the biggies...overbet square-$ on biggies means more value on the underbet others...especially true on the "absolutely anonymous" talent in the field (among which there are always a few "not yet recognized as"/"soon to be" elites).

Do you think (or do figures indicate) that this is valid. Whether this is practically exploitable is a different matter (eg.betting ALL moneyline dogs in MLB is a moneymaker but its not really practical...but in his case you got just one mL big-dog on Field weekly.

Anyhow, i'd appreciate any of you motor-heads weiging in on this. Is the Field Bet the "sum of all left-over value" I think it to be?

[Vegas39]

I also like Vickers for NW race

[Optional]

Enjoying the thread and the education that comes with it...another noob question coming up...

It seems to me that in general--ie. most of the time, and especially true the higher the race's profile=the better known are the drivers...
that "long term" (over the course of a season at least)...the FIELD (anyone other than a specifically "lined" driver) bet is +eV

I gather that there will be long waits between wins by a "nobody", so the stakes u throw at this bet if you were playing this "one spin a week" slot machine u'd have to keep the "coin size" small...

it seems to me that the low% rate of a team-Field nobody hitting should be consistently higher than the rate that the large-negative odds imply...cuz u got lotsa square $ being automatically channelled onto the biggies...overbet square-$ on biggies means more value on the underbet others...especially true on the "absolutely anonymous" talent in the field (among which there are always a few "not yet recognized as"/"soon to be" elites).

Do you think (or do figures indicate) that this is valid. Whether this is practically exploitable is a different matter (eg.betting ALL moneyline dogs in MLB is a moneymaker but its not really practical...but in his case you got just one mL big-dog on Field weekly.

Anyhow, i'd appreciate any of you motor-heads weiging in on this. Is the Field Bet the "sum of all left-over value" I think it to be?

Personally I only look at the field bet if there is a specific driver in it I like.

I would very very strongly doubt that taking the field every week would outpay the probability that they win. But we can work it out roughly. We know that in Cup racing the field paid 4 times in the last 2 years (as it was discussed in another thread), equivalent to 18/1. Field (outside top 23 usually) is offered at 12/1 to 15/1 just about every week in Cup.

I don't know numbers for Nationwide or Trucks off the top of my head, and it could well be better than that, but I still doubt it's any where near a profit able long term blind bet.


Hopefully Yisman will read this and might be able to add more definite info. He has been watching the rear of the field odds for the last season or two.

[Optional]

I also like Vickers for NW race

That's good to hear. I'm honestly not wildly confident he can do it in this field (think he will plenty of times this year when field not stacked), but think once practice gets underway the Gibbs cars will look hot, and people will recall just how good they are here. I think +875 will look like good odds.


of the others;

Jimmie - Don't think he gives a shit about winning NW races in comparison to Cup in general. And compared to other Cup guys that race the series. Not that he can't/won't win... but I just don't bet him in NW. Plus being in a JRM car is still a wild card and no matter how much Hendrick help I doubt they have caught up to Roush. Penske, JGR, RCR or Turner Scott... just to name a few.

Kyle - Hoping he blows an engine so he starts at the back so he is some value at all. But at +425 in his own car... no thanks.

Kenseth - If he makes to the final 20 laps near the lead, should be the obvious winner imho. His stats are about 30% better than his personal NW average at this track, and more than anything he is the #18 team car. The Usain Bolt of NW teams. I'm hoping people get dazzled by Jimmie and Kyle and give us some good odds by race day though.

Harvick - Huge wildcard. Just don't know. I too often seem to under estimate this bugger, especially in NW. I think I'm just going to be ignoring him and hoping like hell he doesn't ream me this week.

BradK - One of the few tracks he hasn't won a NW race at, and one of his worst Cup tracks. Coupled with Penske switching to the Mustang bodies this year. Not for me.

Vickers - Has the plum ride to take this championship. Imho is a chase level Cup driver. He got one race with the team last year. At this track in this car. Qualified 5th and finished 2nd behind his team mate in the #18. Could well be what happens again. Should be one of the three faves with Kenseth and Harvick imho. Can't not back him at +900 now I think.

Bayne - in the 2 time championship winning team car. And this track has been one of the best for the #6 team. Like Vickers given the equipment and the chance to prove himself Bayne should be very focused on doing it this year. But not his best track stats wise. He'll need a personal best to compete for the win, but has the car under him to allow it.

Sadler/Dillon/Hornish - if an RCR or Penske car wins, I just don't see one of these guys as the one doing it here.

[fitguy67]

great answer...with the huge amounts of vig, can't assume that overbetting on faves (thus lowering their value) automatically translates into increased value on the other side...

ultimately books are not passive victims of market Supply-Demand forces...there's considerable "whatever the market will bear"/"take it or leave it" issues at play, as well...and you see it in the "rake" (net vig)...eg Rousey last week was overbet and something lyk -1100, but that didn't mean Caramouch had any value cuz she went off at something lyk +850...

"Field" bets may be a lot lyk bets on a huge (but not huge enough, lyk caramouche)...books have skimmed off (as vig) so much of whatever overbetting by squares on "big names" etc...that there very well may be negative/negligible value on the other side(s) of the bet...as your figures on Field win% vs. typiical book-odds show

[MatI]

Opti, have you given any thought to the V8 race?

[Optional]

Opti, have you given any thought to the V8 race?

Not really. I see Toll cars are quick in the practice that ended earlier. Was hoping Winterbottom would look slick enough to back.

Do you like anyone? Red Bull guys are too short to back eh?

Just noticed they have qualifying and Stoners Dunlop race debut live streaming starting in about 3.5 hours.

http://www.v8supercars.com.au/v8live/schedule

[Optional]

great answer...with the huge amounts of vig, can't assume that overbetting on faves (thus lowering their value) automatically translates into increased value on the other side...

ultimately books are not passive victims of market Supply-Demand forces...there's considerable "whatever the market will bear"/"take it or leave it" issues at play, as well...and you see it in the "rake" (net vig)...eg Rousey last week was overbet and something lyk -1100, but that didn't mean Caramouch had any value cuz she went off at something lyk +850...

"Field" bets may be a lot lyk bets on a huge (but not huge enough, lyk caramouche)...books have skimmed off (as vig) so much of whatever overbetting by squares on "big names" etc...that there very well may be negative/negligible value on the other side(s) of the bet

The NW Field has a couple of longshot chances in it actually. All 3 Turner Scott rookies have good cars. (Piquet, Allgaier and Larson)

Kyle Larson could do anything too. I guess he's why the field odds are kind of low.

[MatI]

i'm not going to make any decisions until I see how practice sessions play out today. But i'm thinking a h2h or podium bet at this stage..Odds are down at the moment.

[Optional]

i'm not going to make any decisions until I see how practice sessions play out today. But i'm thinking a h2h or podium bet at this stage..Odds are down at the moment.

Where can we bet H2Hs?

Hopefully pick up some clues from being able to watch this quali/shootout stream.

[Optional]

I'm not coming down for the Phillip Island classics this weekend btw. Could not find a cat sitter

Have you got plans for the GP?

I might be interested in doing a quick pop down for one night/day if you want to get up to no good

[5mike5]

I'm not coming down for the Phillip Island classics this weekend btw. Could not find a cat sitter

Have you got plans for the GP?

I might be interested in doing a quick pop down for one night/day if you want to get up to no good

least im not the only cat person here

[Optional]

least im not the only cat person here

Well... I'm not really a pet person at all. Had a dog that I was inseparable with when young and never wanted another animal after she died.

But, I have 3 daughters and an ex wife who are all cat mad so have been brainwashed to like them over the years. And this one I'm looking after for the guy I rent out a room to who has been overseas for a month or so... for over 4 months now. I can't put her in a cattery without papers she is vaccinated and he hasn't answered my emails asking about it. My sister said she would come past and put food in the bowl every day but had a hissy fit and pulled out on me yesterday. So only option would be to leave cat locked inside for a week with lots of kitty litter and a pile of food. Which I seriously thought about for a little while. LOL

Have already paid for accommodation too :\

[MatI]

Where can we bet H2Hs?

Hopefully pick up some clues from being able to watch this quali/shootout stream.

H2H's are at centrebet.

Hard to get a good feel yet imo. Just keeping an eye on it all but no bets yet.

I'm not coming down for the Phillip Island classics this weekend btw. Could not find a cat sitter

Have you got plans for the GP?

I might be interested in doing a quick pop down for one night/day if you want to get up to no good

I'm not going to PI, but will be at the GP for fri, sat, sun. Nothing special, just going to get general admission. When do you think you would come down?

[Optional]

took Whincup over Lowndes and Van Gis over Winterbottom in race 1

[Optional]

took Whincup over Lowndes and Van Gis over Winterbottom in race 1

Wow, Van Gis blows the start from pole and I thought that one was done. Then Frosty retires with a gearbox issue on 2nd lap to give me a winner!

Cursed front row.