Nbl 2011/12

[binomial]

Not alot to go on but decided on a few plays:

Sydney +5.5 1u
Melbourne v Sydney over 162.5 2u

Both teams have alot of new players, and will probably have three new players starting. Results from preseaon suggest Sydney may be a little further advanced. Melbourne lost to Perth by 22 in the preseason comp while Sydney lost by 7 in the final with their best player and MVP runner up last season Khazzouh sitting out. If Mills plays well this could be in trouble but I am thinking it will be close and 5.5 seems attractive.

Both teams look to have plenty of scoring and should play relatively uptempo. Sydney put up 94 vs NZ and 88 vs Adelaide in the preseason comp. Could be early season rust but this is not a very high number and I like it to go over.


GC v NZ over 171.5 2u
107-100 in the preseason suggests neither team has learnt to play defence in the offseason. NZ will obviously miss Penney's scoring but should still be able to score it up versus the Blaze.

[kobstopa]

I like GC v NZ over 171.5
& Melbourne -4.5 the tigers with Patty Mills at point & outside threat, Sydney will depend on their frontline for offense with Julian Khazzouh, a double-double.

[kobstopa]

Not alot to go on but decided on a few plays: Sydney +5.5 1u Melbourne v Sydney over 162.5 2u Both teams have alot of new players, and will probably have three new players starting. Results from preseaon suggest Sydney may be a little further advanced. Melbourne lost to Perth by 22 in the preseason comp while Sydney lost by 7 in the final with their best player and MVP runner up last season Khazzouh sitting out. If Mills plays well this could be in trouble but I am thinking it will be close and 5.5 seems attractive. Both teams look to have plenty of scoring and should play relatively uptempo. Sydney put up 94 vs NZ and 88 vs Adelaide in the preseason comp. Could be early season rust but this is not a very high number and I like it to go over. GC v NZ over 171.5 2u 107-100 in the preseason suggests neither team has learnt to play defence in the offseason. NZ will obviously miss Penney's scoring but should still be able to score it up versus the Blaze.

score: 82-76 tigers
man, what a terrible beat for you, a foul committed right at the end of regular with a score 81-76, 1 miss 1 made freethrew.

[kobstopa]

I like GC v NZ over 171.5
& Melbourne -4.5 the tigers with Patty Mills at point & outside threat, Sydney will depend on their frontline for offense with Julian Khazzouh, a double-double.

all covered

[binomial]

well called kobstopa.

ominous start to the season with sydney leading by as many as 13 in the last quarter then shatting the bed to blow the cover by a half, with the last few minutes in car crash mode.

YTD: 1-2 -1.2u

Even though there are several injuries for tonights games some of the projected starters make it clear cut that talent has hit a new all time low in the league.

Townsville +6.5 2u
Townsville ML 1u
Cairns v Townsville under 149.5 1u

Cairns were tough at home last season but I this is a way different team and I don't get this line.
Article here saying Crosswhite is out:

http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2011/10/08/185521_local-sport-news.html

Taipans SL: Jamar Wilson; Andrew Warren; Brad Hill; Jeff Dowdell; Dean Brebner ?

Cairns scored 55 and 57 in the preseason comp against NBL opposition.
Townsville aren't much better, but they are better IMO.


Perth -4 1u
Adelaide v Perth under 156.5 1u

Adelaide did ok in the preseaon but they look to be starting several players who are back ups.

Perth missing Knight don't look anything special but given they are a familiar unit and their form in the preseason i am willing to take them.

[Aussports]

Like the townsville +6.5
and the under in the adelaide/perth

[kobstopa]

well called kobstopa.

ominous start to the season with sydney leading by as many as 13 in the last quarter then shatting the bed to blow the cover by a half, with the last few minutes in car crash mode.

YTD: 1-2 -1.2u

Even though there are several injuries for tonights games some of the projected starters make it clear cut that talent has hit a new all time low in the league.

Townsville +6.5 2u
Townsville ML 1u
Cairns v Townsville under 149.5 1u

Cairns were tough at home last season but I this is a way different team and I don't get this line.
Article here saying Crosswhite is out:

http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2011/10/08/185521_local-sport-news.html

Taipans SL: Jamar Wilson; Andrew Warren; Brad Hill; Jeff Dowdell; Dean Brebner ?

Cairns scored 55 and 57 in the preseason comp against NBL opposition.
Townsville aren't much better, but they are better IMO.


Perth -4 1u
Adelaide v Perth under 156.5 1u

Adelaide did ok in the preseaon but they look to be starting several players who are back ups.

Perth missing Knight don't look anything special but given they are a familiar unit and their form in the preseason i am willing to take them.

I am leaned toward Cairns v Townsville under 149.5 1u, but my concern is both teams' injuries plague not even funny; esp Townsville with their defensive cornerstone in Russell Hinder and Luke Schenscher are out, their bench is too very weak. poor defense all around, This can translate to upper tempo & a shooting fest as a mean to win the game.
Townsville will heavily depend on one Eddie Gill to play more minutes, the line is reflect on the fact that Taipans is at home. So it make sense to take Townsville +6.5.

I'll go with Perth -4, funny enough my book is currently Perth -2, so I better hurry.

[kobstopa]

Perth -3.5 now, damn

[kobstopa]

I really like it & will parlay following for 1 u

Take Townsville +7.5 *Perth (-3.5)/Under 156.5 = Combined odds to win : 6.12 u
This I think Cairns' Jamar Wilson their goto guard is not 100% coming to this game.

good luck to all of us

[kobstopa]

in eddie we trust

[kingsr]

Kobstopa, start your own thread! You seem to know your NBL and frequent here more than Binominal.

Just a suggestion.

[kobstopa]

Damn,
Adelaide v Perth under 156.5 is drawn dead already, 1st half score: 92 points with 51 points 1st qrt, a zero defense by two of the most stingy score allow teams.

[kobstopa]

I really like it & will parlay following for 1 u

Take Townsville +7.5 *Perth (-3.5)/Under 156.5 = Combined odds to win : 6.12 u
This I think Cairns' Jamar Wilson their goto guard is not 100% coming to this game.

good luck to all of us

Score: 102-69 Perth , 81-76 cairn
All covered except the under 156.5

[binomial]

Perth shot 56% from 3. I read somewhere Adelaide had improved their defence. sure.

Wollongong v NZ under 165.5 1u

[hawley]

Please tell me you didnt watch this game man.

If you did you will be absolutely sick on that under.

[kobstopa]

that's crazy, in the last 2 mins of the game, NZ actually scored 19 points while the hawks had scored 12 points = 31 points
a 64 points 4th qrter.

NZ breakers = Phx mercury, never take under 165 in any game they play. these guys are pissed as Australian had humiliated them during Olympic qualifier games.

[binomial]

My recording cut out in the last minute, which had already gone for about an hour so was spared some of the pain but still suffered.

Even without the Hawks stupidity the refs are calling alot of fouls and players are to poor defensively and too stupid to not commit dumb fouls. Even though Wollongong were binge fouling at the end NZ still had more fouls. Only two teams had less than 20 fouls for the round. Pretty hard to take unders.

YTD: 3-6 -2.5u

[binomial]

Cairns +5 1u
Cairns v Townsville over 151.5 1u

Sounds like Cairns could have won by alot more last week, despite getting 0 points from one of their imports. 5 seems a bit many to me.

Went over last week with ordinary shooting and nothing from one of the imports. No bigs in the game means should be uptempo.


Melbourne +9.5 1u
Perth v Melbourne over 164 1u

Perth looked impressive last week but Adelaide look weak. 9.5 seems alot to be giving a team starting mills and ubaka.

[therealdealau]

really like the melbourne play, might go check out the game hopefully mills trains some clutch 3's down the stretch!

[kobstopa]

i done my take here
good luck all

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/972456-nba-daily-picks-p42.html

[binomial]

YTD: 5-8 -2.7u

Adelaide -5 1u
Early days but Warren looks an MVP candidate, Simpson looks like he may be above average import and Ballinger is back. This transforms Adelaide into a decent chance for the top 4 as i see it.

Not alot of value but factoring in the chance that Sydney continue to stink it up willing to play it.


Wollongong v GC over 165.5 1.5u

[binomial]

both losses by 20+

5-10 -5.2u

over and out.