Rugby and league 2011

[hawley]

chiefs -3.5

Playing this one early

Chiefs started the season shit but have found form as of late winning 4 of their last 6, with an upset win over the blues. Canes have also put together 2 straight wins but over #12 and #14 teams.

This year at home chiefs have only lost to #3 blues and #4 crusaders

Hurricanes camp seems to be shook with nonu talking about going to the chiefs and gear talking about leaving too. I believe Conrad is out injured for this match also. Kahui should be fired up to out perform nonu who is looking at coming over to his team next season. I think the canes just don't give a **** this season and would rather just play on twitter.






What's with the nrl lines? Bottom of the table titans vs top of the table dragons spread at 1.5, half of the raiders injured vs the baby broncos and paying even money? Can't wait to see the team lists... Origin week is bringing crazy lines out

have you seen the Dragons team this week - I think I may hammer the Titans although they have been so bad lately they could possible struggle to beat their own u20's team


Dragons: Jason Nightingale, Ratu Peni Tagive, Alex McKinnon, Matt Prior, Reece Simmonds, Nathan Fien, Ben Hornby (c), Dan Hunt, Dean Young, Michael Weyman, Jack Bosden, Michael Greenfield, Adam Cuthbertson. Interchange (from): Jon Green, David Gower, Daniel Penese, Jake Marketo, Mitch Rein.

Titans: William Zillman, Steve Michaels, Clinton Toopi, Joseph Tomane, David Mead, Preston Campbell, Scott Prince (c), Luke Bailey, Matt Srama, Michael Henderson, Anthony Laffranchi, Mark Minichiello, Luke O'Dwyer. Interchange (from): Matt White, Ryan James, Bodene Thompson, Ben Ridge, Brenton Lawrence.


Couple of names I don't even recognize in that team, although I must admit I don't watch much of the u20's so they could be young guns.

The Dragons do still have Nightingale, Fien, Hornby, Hunt, Young, Weyman so I guess they still have a decent core.

I think I will take a risk on the Titans despite their terribly poor form.

[hawley]

Also think I will take the Roosters as small dogs against the Storm and the Tigers spread and h2h


Great value in some of these games but its a huge risk playing them during SOO times.

[Meyhem]

Tab has just moved the Chiefs line to -4.5

[hawley]

Tab has just moved the Chiefs line to -4.5

Beni moving lines

The SJ of rugby

[Beniphone]

Lol whatever.

Wow that dragons team has really taken a hit, I think your right with titans being the play. No Boyd covering at the back and no soward controlling the game with kicks. Titans loose bird and harrision and have to play at jubliee, I still think they get it done

[hawley]

Lol whatever.

Wow that dragons team has really taken a hit, I think your right with titans being the play. No Boyd covering at the back and no soward controlling the game with kicks. Titans loose bird and harrision and have to play at jubliee, I still think they get it done

If you don't mind can you start PM'ing me your plays before you make them so I can lock them in before the line moves


The Dragons team is certainly going to struggle to score points, but I don't see the Titans scoring plenty, especially how bad they have been lately

I have been expecting it for a few weeks but I expect Prince and co. to fire pretty soon. Cartwright pulled out of the NSW coaching team to focus on the Titans.

This is a huge game for them and I think they will turn up for it

[Meyhem]

Its weeks like this that make you wish you followed the U20's closely, so many new names.

Titans actually got unlucky with a full strength dragons team early this season, it was the game where the ref got in the way of the boyd try, i was on the dragons and even i knew it was messed up.

[Beniphone]

If you don't mind can you start PM'ing me your plays before you make them so I can lock them in before the line moves

If that was the case I'd be trying to get the .5 off the crusaders line




Origin game 2

Nsw 2.10
Qld 1.67

So that lines around 4.5 mark? If only they would give nsw at 6.5 again

[hawley]

SInce game 1 I really felt like NSW would take this one and go back to Brizzy at 1 -1 but now im not so sure.

If NSW do win im certain it will be Gallen MOM . . . if only the TAB offered that option

[Beniphone]

It's all laid out, game 1 was close, Yow should never of had the opportunity to score that try, I know it's league and it's a matter of which way the ball will bounce but it just should not of been left like that, alot of the calls went QLDs way, I can't remember them all but when Uate bunted off Thurston and the ball game out that should of been a penalty for a strip.

NSW fans are starting to get tired of loosing, at the top of the NRL site there is two banners with who you can facebook "like". Qld has 285k likes and Nsw has only 158k. After last series 3-0 defeat the blues supporters are starting to loose intrest, the 2 suncorp games have both sold out while next week at anz still has tickets. I can see them trying to push this to a game 3 decider to try keep the blues fans faith up. Gallop himself said there's nothing better then a game 3 series decider. Game 3 will be QLDs tho, King Lockeyers last game in the maroon jersey infront of a sold out Suncorp stadium.

[Meyhem]

Line has came out at 3.5

1. NSW 2.33 +1.5 : 2.15 +3.5 : 1.95
2. QLD 1.62 -5.5 : 2.05 -3.5 : 1.87

I think it will be best to hold out on this one if your going to back NSW, At 1.95 they might move it to 4.5

[Meyhem]

I might beable to get up to Hamilton for the game also Benni, Check out the forecast for Friday night You know how it gets at Waikato stadium in the wet

[kingsr]

I dont think a team containing JESUS himself could beat QLD....seriously guys, check out the QLD team, only a match fix could get the job done for NSW imo

[Dr.Gonzo]

Warriors are the bet of the round in my opinion. Playing back at home against a Wests team who was only able to scrape home on the back of a 9-2 penalty count. I expect the big Warriors back to dominate this game and grind out a comfortable win.

I am going to stick with the Dragons this week. Playing at home and Archer will officiate so they have a clear advantage. The Titans have been terrible and Prince is out of form. I expect them to get out-enthused and can't see them offering too much of a threat to the Dragons defense line giving how pedestrian their attack has been. Obviously it is a makeshift Dragons backline but the Titans backline is just rubbish to begin with. The only highlighted player from Hawley's posts who isn't up to first grade standard is Simmons.

Roosters are worth a bet as underdogs against a weak Storm team. The Storm team is a journeyman side without their class spine. Despite injury concerns the Roosters have a clear advantage in the halves and should be able to get home on the back of Todd Carney.

[Dr.Gonzo]

I dont think a team containing JESUS himself could beat QLD....seriously guys, check out the QLD team, only a match fix could get the job done for NSW imo

Are you serious?

NSW had no ball in game one and almost got the job done. Stuart picked a mobile forward pack because he knows the officials will be less tolerant come Wednesday. QLD were exposed down the left hand edge and it's only going to get worse. I expect Mini to shift with Hayne allowing him to attack from fullback for some parts of this game.

I really think NSW are specials. I have them favorites for this match.

[Dr.Gonzo]

And if that isn't enough it will basically be a fixed match.

[kingsr]

NSW specials yeah maybe in 1985

[Dr.Gonzo]

Let's wait till after the match for the laughter.

I'm quite positive you're going to be in for a rude shock.

[TheMoneyTree]

England Team

1. Sam Tomkins (Wigan Warriors and Wigan St Patricks)
2. Ryan Hall (Leeds Rhinos and Oulton Raiders)
3. Michael Shenton (St Helens and Upton)
4. Chris Bridge (Warrington Wolves and Waterhead)
5. Tom Briscoe (Hull FC and Featherstone Lions)
6. Kevin Sinfield (Leeds Rhinos and Waterhead)
7. Richard Myler (Warrington Wolves and Halton West Bank)
8. Jamie Peacock (Leeds Rhinos and Stanningley, Capt)
9. Luke Robinson (Huddersfield Giants and Siddal)
10. James Graham (St Helens and Blackbrook)
11. Jon Wilkin (St Helens and East Hull)
12. Ben Westwood (Warrington Wolves and Normanton Knights)
13. Sean O’Loughlin (Wigan Warriors and Wigan St Patricks)
Interchanges
14. Michael McIlorum (Wigan Warriors and Queens)
15. Adrian Morley (Warrington Wolves and Eccles)
16. Garreth Carvell (Warrington Wolves and Stanningley)
17. Joel Tomkins (Wigan Warriors and Wigan St Patricks)
Reserve
Jamie Jones Buchanan (Leeds Rhinos and Stanningley).

Exiles Team

1. Brett Hodgson (Warrington Wolves & Australia)
2. Pat Richards (Wigan Warriors & Australia)
3. George Carmont (Wigan Warriors & Samoa)
4. Matt King (Warrington Wolves & Australia)
5. Francis Meli (St Helens & Samoa)
6. Rangi Chase (Castleford Tigers & New Zealand)
7. Thomas Leuluai (Wigan Warriors & New Zealand)
8. Tony Puletua (St Helens & New Zealand)
9. Danny Buderus (Captain) (Leeds Rhinos & Australia)
10. Mark O’Meley (Hull FC & Australia)
11. Iosia Soliola (St Helens & New Zealand)
12. Willie Manu (Hull FC & Tonga)
13. Craig Fitzgibbon (Hull FC & Australia)
Interchanges
14. David Faiumu (Huddersfield Giants & New Zealand)
15. Kylie Leuluai (Leeds Rhinos & Samoa)
16. Louis Anderson (Warrington Wolves & New Zealand)
17. David Fa’alogo (Huddersfield Giants & New Zealand)
Reserve
Glenn Morrison (Wakefield Trinity Wildcats & Australia)


I've gone with Exiles -4 personally the back line is far superior to Englands who are missing the likely Four Nations 6/7 pairing in Gareth Widdop & Danny Brough and also England are missing 1st choice Hooker James Roby (By far the form player in Super League this season), Sam Burgess & Gareth Ellis who would all be regular starters in the pack, Michael McIlorum IMO is out of his depth at this moment in time and isn't ready for the 'International Scene' with question marks also over Ryan Hall, Jon Wilkin, Kevin Sinfield, Richard Myler, Joel Tomkins & Gareth Carvell at the Top Level. I can see a comfortable Exiles victory here.

[hawley]

And if that isn't enough it will basically be a fixed match.

This is what im most interested in.

I really hope NSW take game 2 because im heading over for game 3 so hopefully it is still a series at that point. Either way with it being Lockyer's last game Suncorp will be rocking.

[binomial]

such a pity all those exiles are not in NRL. while they are getting on their class would raise standard significntly IMO.

where did you find that line moneytree?

[Beniphone]

Adding,

Crusaders halftime/fulltime
Bulls +4.5
Titans ML
Broncos ML
Warriors -4.5

Waiting for the Total points lines to come out, could have a good one for Friday (ay mey? Ha)

[benrama]

You're rolling the dice playing NRL this weekend fellas, but I agree the Warriors play stands out. This is the only game this round basically reamains a "pure game", unaffected by players suiting up for SOO game 2. Warriors will look to rebound from last week, and aside from a melt-down in round 1 have looked the goods at home. They will also have revenge on their minds from the Tigers beating them 20-12 early in the season. If Tigers play like they did on Monday night and make that many mistakes this should be a comfortable 10 point + win for the Warriors.

Beni - can't say I like Titans at all, Bennett is the master at getting the best out of young players, and at home they will still be very tough to beat, against a Titans side that has lost 4 straight, and is missing their key player in Bird. If the Titans were going to win against St George this year, this is their chance, but I think there's no edge on this game.

I'd be more likely to pick Canberra for an "upset" this week, but after last weeks demoralising loss to NQ who knows how they'll be mentally this week.

[benrama]

On a side note, I know you are following the NBA this year Beni, so you might be interested in something I posted over on the NBA forum.

From a betting perspective there is no value on the opening lines in any of these games. In all 4 games live betting, however, I've managed to get the following bets:

Game 1: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5
Game 2: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5 and Dallas +2.5 (lucky middle on this admittedly)
Game 3: Opening Dallas -2.5, I got live Dallas +5 and +8
Game 4: Opening Dallas -3, I got live Dallas +3 and +7

Every one of these plays has been $$$.

The beauty of these teams - and this was the same in the regular season - is that they are both streaky. They can both put on points in a hurry and against each other are evenly enough matched that streaks are likely to occur both ways in nearly every game (I think game 6 will be the exception, by the way - with Miami crushing Dallas).

Armed with this knowledge you need simply wait for one team to get ahead by 7-10 points and jump on the live line. For me this is the only "sharp" way of playing this finals series.

[TheMoneyTree]

such a pity all those exiles are not in NRL. while they are getting on their class would raise standard significntly IMO.

where did you find that line moneytree?

I got it at SkyBet (UK) mate, Most had the line at -6 i think SportingBet over here was the only other offering -4 yesterday.

[Beniphone]

Dragons have lost too many in too many key positions, its going to be hard for them to put together a team to play clean that has not played together. It's going to be like an u20's team vs a u20's team out there ha. Titans have had the most unlucky year with calls, I think they have enough to get it done. If your book has a total points jump on the over.

Boncos is a tough one for sure, broncos have got alot of young stars tho, I think the raiders are gonna still going to be in the "**** my life" mindset after the shocker they had vs the cowboys, Dugan and campese both back out injured won't help.

[Beniphone]

On a side note, I know you are following the NBA this year Beni, so you might be interested in something I posted over on the NBA forum.

From a betting perspective there is no value on the opening lines in any of these games. In all 4 games live betting, however, I've managed to get the following bets:

Game 1: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5
Game 2: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5 and Dallas +2.5 (lucky middle on this admittedly)
Game 3: Opening Dallas -2.5, I got live Dallas +5 and +8
Game 4: Opening Dallas -3, I got live Dallas +3 and +7

Every one of these plays has been $$$.

The beauty of these teams - and this was the same in the regular season - is that they are both streaky. They can both put on points in a hurry and against each other are evenly enough matched that streaks are likely to occur both ways in nearly every game (I think game 6 will be the exception, by the way - with Miami crushing Dallas).

Armed with this knowledge you need simply wait for one team to get ahead by 7-10 points and jump on the live line. For me this is the only "sharp" way of playing this finals series.

Yea mate good stuff, read that just before, I done the same on game 4, I got Miami at 3.5 before it started (brought .5) and before the 4th I jumped on Dallas, NBA seems to have alot of potential for live betting, I don't see too many people making the most of it either

Jumped on Miami before the season kicked off, hopefully I dont have to hedge out

[kingsr]

Nice live betting Benrama

[brad89]

If that was the case I'd be trying to get the .5 off the crusaders line Origin game 2 Nsw 2.10 Qld 1.67 So that lines around 4.5 mark? If only they would give nsw at 6.5 again

Sportsbet opened at 2 a couple of days ago and are now 3.5

Line has came out at 3.5 1. NSW 2.33 +1.5 : 2.15 +3.5 : 1.95 2. QLD 1.62 -5.5 : 2.05 -3.5 : 1.87 I think it will be best to hold out on this one if your going to back NSW, At 1.95 they might move it to 4.5

+4 at sportingbet, I think if you can hold off you might get lucky and pick up +4.5 closer to the game. Can't see it going any higher than that.

[Meyhem]

Hmmm, my local is indicating the line will move down if anything, if its hits the +4 mark ill take it then. Cant wait for this one.

[brad89]

Sportsbet were the first with a line that I saw, I think on Monday? Pretty sure they mentioned on One week at a time (TV show here on Monday nights). Not sure what everyone else opened at but most places have 3.5 now, only place I see 4 is at Sportingbet.

[Bazz27]

Just heard 1 D Boyd will be a Knight 4 the next 4 seasons - WOW thats a big signing - he can play !!

[Meyhem]

Just heard 1 D Boyd will be a Knight 4 the next 4 seasons - WOW thats a big signing - he can play !!

Yep, he will be following his homeboy Wayne Bennet to the knights next year, Knights are gonna blow up over the next 3 years

[peterw111]

NSW specials yeah maybe in 1985

I agree.... As with the first game this NSW team is the weakest for a LONG LONG time.....

Qld will fire up for game 2....They definetly took it easy in game 1 at home and took a WIN to be in the bag before they walked out onto the field...
See when NSW lead 12-10 how long it took Qld to hit the front again .....ABOUT 3 MINUTES....When they need to, QLD can step the game up...

QLD WIN ........ QLD BATTER THE BLUES......

[PickApprentice]

Originally Posted by Beniphone
chiefs -3.5

Playing this one early

Chiefs started the season shit but have found form as of late winning 4 of their last 6, with an upset win over the blues. Canes have also put together 2 straight wins but over #12 and #14 teams.

This year at home chiefs have only lost to #3 blues and #4 crusaders

Hurricanes camp seems to be shook with nonu talking about going to the chiefs and gear talking about leaving too. I believe Conrad is out injured for this match also. Kahui should be fired up to out perform nonu who is looking at coming over to his team next season. I think the canes just don't give a **** this season and would rather just play on twitter.


That line is just wrong. I see so much value in Chiefs, that I decided to go all in with my money.

Good luck!