Formula 1 Italian GP Monza. Who will win the Italian Grand Prix?

[Optional]

3 days until first practice. Should be an interesting betting race this week, with Lewis Hamilton an early short favorite pushing some others prices out to a bit of value.


Here's something to watch out for this weekend that might give you an edge;

Each driver can only use 8 engines during the 19 race season, an average of about 2½ races per engine.

So far this year 9 of the 13 races have been won by a driver using a fresh engine for that race. In 2 others, Monaco and Hungary, no top team used a new engine, leaving only Canada where Hamilton was a 'surprise' winner, much based on tire strategy, and Malaysia, where Vettel inherited the win when Alonso's engine blew up, as the only instances where a used engine has defeated a fresh one for the race win.

There are 6 races to go this season. Red Bull (Vettel/Webber) and McLaren (Hamilton/Button) cars have use 6 engines each. All bar Vettel installed a new engine last weekend so are unlikely to install one here unless they feel they have a very good chance and need it.

Vettel has run the same engine in the last 3 consecutive races, so will be changing engines, but what you need to look out for is if he changes to a new fresh engine, or uses another different used one. If he takes a fresh engine then the current +600 odds may be worth speculating on. (but take care, the Red Bull isn't expected to be well suited here)

Both Ferraris (Massa and Alonso) have used 7 engines so far his year, and both took new engines at the last race. With only 1 fresh powerplant left any move by Ferrari to use that here will be a strong indication they believe their chances are very very good. (as they often are at Monza anyway)

Kubica in the Renault factory car has only used 5 engines so far this year, and was the only top driver along with Vettel to Not take a fresh engine at the last race. He will surely do so here, and with the Renault upgrades jumping it ahead of everyone but McLaren for race speed in Spa, that fresh engine could be enough to see him cause the upset here.

As far as the early betting, if Hamilton is anywhere near a fair price at +190, his team mate Button has to be some value at +800. More on that when I complete my ratings.

[Optional]

Monza Track Stats

Monza Driver Track Stats;

The fastest and lowest downforce dependent track on the circuit, Monza's long straights and famous fast corners contrast so sharply with it's chicanes and short twisty section that there is no possible way to setup a car that is fast, as well as being as sure footed as an F1 car usually is.

Most established drivers, and every serious contender this week, has poorer than career average results at Monza. Schumacher, Barrichello and Sutil being the only noteable exceptions who show a statistical liking for the track. Apart from those 3, Button is the only other driver who qualifies better than their career average at Monza.

The cars feel so much lighter and have so much less mechanical grip than usual that traditionally every team came here in the week before the event to test and allow their drivers to get used to driving such a "different car". Hence, unsurprisingly, we have seen some amazing results at Monza since testing was banned 2 years ago. Barrichello's heroic effort and Force India's performance last year, and Vettel's win from pole in the lowly Torro Rosso in 2008 were among the most memorable moments of those seasons. If you are looking for more of the same this year, Kubica could be the man to do it.

Of the new guys, Di Grassi stands out as having the most GP2 experience, and best average performances at Monza. Hulkenberg has only 1 start, last year, for a 3rd. Petrov has made 4 GP2 starts here, for a best finish of 2nd last year.

Last year the McLaren, Ferrari and Force India cars seemed best suited to the track. RBR and Brawn looked set to fight out the last 2 points positions during practice and qualifying. Ferrari is traditionally the chassis to be riding.

Although Monza is said to be hard on engines, due to it's 75%+ of lap time at full throttle, the statistics do not bear that out, with the track having almost the lowest DNF rate due to mechanical issues on the current circuit. Driver error related retirements are also near the lowest, as well as 1st lap retirements being rare compared to average. Tyre and brake issues should be minimal.


Track Experience (Monza rank out of current tracks in brackets)

Michael Schumacher (4th) 14 races, 12 finished, 3 poles, 5 wins, 8 podiums
Adrian Sutil (4th) 3 races, 3 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Rubens Barrichello (5th) 17 races, 14 finished, 1 poles, 3 wins, 5 podiums
Robert Kubica (8th) 4 races, 3 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 2 podiums
Sebastian Vettel (10th) 3 races, 3 finished, 1 poles, 1 wins, 1 podiums
Jenson Button (11th) 10 races, 7 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 2 podiums
Mark Webber (11th) 8 races, 6 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Fernando Alonso (13th) 8 races, 6 finished, 1 poles, 1 wins, 2 podiums
Lewis Hamilton (14th) 3 races, 2 finished, 1 poles, 0 wins, 1 podiums
Felipe Massa (16th) 6 races, 4 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Nico Rosberg (18th) 4 races, 3 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums

*Rank is out of the 18 tracks they have raced on before. (16 for Schumacher)


Avg Qualifying => Finishing Position (career avg in brackets)

Michael Schumacher 3.6 (3.9) => 4.9 (5.7)
Lewis Hamilton 6 (5.3) => 7 (6)
Robert Kubica 9 (7.7) => 7.5 (8.8)
Fernando Alonso 9.2 (7.6) => 8.5 (7.3)
Sebastian Vettel 8.7 (7.4) => 9 (9.6)
Rubens Barrichello 8.4 (8.6) => 9.4 (9.9)
Jenson Button 9.6 (10.2) => 9.9 (9.7)
Mark Webber 12.4 (9.7) => 11.6 (11.2)
Felipe Massa 9.7 (8.4) => 12.3 (8.3)
Adrian Sutil 14.3 (16.3) => 14 (15.4)
Nico Rosberg 10.8 (10.3) => 14.5 (10.7)


My Driver Track Suitability Rating out of 10

Michael Schumacher 8.5
Rubens Barrichello 8
Adrian Sutil 7
Lewis Hamilton 7
Robert Kubica 6.5
Jenson Button 6
Fernando Alonso 6
Sebastian Vettel 5
Mark Webber 4.5
Nico Rosberg 3
Felipe Massa 3

[Optional]

Team mate Head 2 Head Matchups

Red Bull - Sebastian Vettel (+547) v Mark Webber (+711)

Monza has never been a happy hunting ground for Webber. In fact it his worst track on the circuit in terms of qualifying. Last year he struggled into Q3 and started 10th, 1 place behind Vettel, before crashing out on the first lap.

One of the big surprises of 2008 was Vettel's debut win, from pole, in the Torro Rosso Ferrari. He and Webber were both uninspiring in the Red Bulls last year, both slowest in Q3 and never looking like improving on that.

You would want to be on Vettel based on history, but Webber continues to buck the odds and defy the historical stats race after race this year, so I won't be betting against him whatever they say.


McLaren - Jenson Button (+707) v Lewis Hamilton (+154)

Even though Monza rates toward the bottom of Lewis' best track list, he has still achieved 2 front row starts from 3 races, including pole last year (before crashing out on the penultimate lap). He drove from 2nd to 2nd on debut in 07.

After looking out-classed by the McLarens, Ferraris and even the Force India last year, Button drove a world championship worthy race to finish up the tail pipe of his BrawnGP team mate, for what turned out to be a vital points haul in his championship chase.

Hamilton is the natural favorite here, but the big gap between their lines doesn't reflect the true difference imho.


Ferrari - Fernando Alonso (+462) v Felipe Massa (+2000)

Massa has qualified the Ferrari on the 2nd or 3rd row in each of his 3 starts here, but has only turned that into a best finish of 6th, last year. One of his worst circuits.

Fred won from pole in the McLaren in 2007 and put in two very good performances in the Renault for the last 2 years, starting 8th and finishing 4th and 5th. Just 1 points finish in his first 5 starts here is what drags down his Monza average down.

The team will make sure Alonso wins this battle no matter what Massa might manage anyway I guess.


Mercedes - Nico Rosberg (+5000) v Michael Schumacher (+8000)

Nico's worst track ever (not just among those on the current circuit). He had a best finish of 6th in 4 starts with Williams, and started 18th for a 16th place finish last year.

Schumi won here at his last start in 2006. One of his best tracks ever. Should be no contest really, but like most other race weekends, be prepared for Michael to disappoint once again anyway.


Williams - Rubens Barrichello (+12000) v Nico Hulkenberg (+25000)

Rubens out-qualified and beat Schumacher 33% of the time at Monza in the Ferrari, which I think says a lot in itself, but then take into account Monza is also just about Schumachers best track too! He brought a 6th best car home for the win last year, although did have 4 disappointing events in a row here before that.

Nico raced here in GP2 last year, for a 6th in the Feature Race and 3rd in the Sprint event.

Even excluding Rubens 3 wins and 5 podiums, the experience of 17 seasons racing on this unique track will make it very difficult for the Hulk to compete with the old stager this weekend.


Renault - Robert Kubica (+2500) v Vitaly Petrov (+20000)

Although he has never qualified especially well at Monza, Kubica has 2 podiums and a 5th place finish from his first 3 starts. He failed to make Q3 last year before his BMW expired mid way through the race.

Petrov does have the benefit of 4 years of GP2 starts, culminating in a 2nd placing in the feature race last year. But lack of any testing time in an F1 car might render him unable to compete with Kubica here.


Force India - Adrian Sutil (+3000) v Tonio Liuzzi (+15000)

Although he started and finished pretty much last at his first 2 Monza attempts, Sutil qualified 2nd and brought the Force India home for a much applauded 4th last year.

Liuzzi has more experience here than Sutil, in his previous life with RBR/STR, but Adrian has had the wood on Tonio most of the year and I see no reason why that will change here.

[Optional]

Monza Pre-Practice Betting Options and Leans

First practice starts about 10 hours from now.

Only 25% of my rating is made up of pre-practice stats and information.

But here's the win probabilities I rate the contenders at so far;

Hamilton 13.41%
Button 10.47%
Sutil 10.28%
Alonso 10.10%
Vettel 9.40%
Barrichello 8.87%
Kubica 8.38%
Webber 8.35%
Schumacher 7.13%
Massa 5.25%

(you can remove Barrichello, Schumacher and Massa from that list and equalize the rest to 100% for a more accurate win market, if you agree those 3 are actually no chance)

Current Pinny prices are;

Hamilton +154
Alonso +462
Vettel +547
Button +707
Webber +711
Massa +2033
Field +911


Win Market

Hamilton does look hard to beat, but at this stage I'd put his fair odds at around +425.

The market could change dramatically after Friday's two practice sessions, so if you want to get in on the action right now, and are into scalping, maybe laying against Hamilton at the +154 line is the way to go, with a view to backing him at better odds, probably pre-qualifying, for some risk free action. And laying against him at +154 is a +EV play if you want to look at it that way anyway.

Another option, if you have a book that allows correlated parlays, is to go for a 3 leg parlay on Ham win +154 * Ham podium -225 * Red Bull car not win -301, for a payout of +389, which is at least getting close to fair odds on him.

Fastest in Practice Session 1

The FIA have changed scrutineering procedure this week, which means most teams are being forced to make changes to the floor design of their cars, which will require baseline testing runs on Friday morning. There is also much discussion of teams needing to test aero packages that use the F-Duct in comparison to no F-Duct.

This will make picking fastest in P1 a total lottery.

If you like a gamble, taking a couple of the long shots is the play. Kubica, Sutil and Barrichello are all in cars that 'sound' like they are well prepared for Monza, so may be more likely to be running high speed laps in P1 than the top 3 teams.

Pole Winner

Again, I think Hamilton should win the Pole but is way under fair odds at +136 to do it.

The way I have handled it is to place 1 unit on the Qualifying/Race double of Hamilton/Vettel and Hamilton/Webber at around +2500. If Hamilton wins qualifying I will then probably lay against both Vettel and Webber winning at the prevailing odds, which should be around +700, giving me a risk free payout of 2 units if Vettel wins, 3 units if Webber wins and 5.5 units if anyone else wins.

By comparison, risking a straight 2 units on Hamilton winning pole at +136 is madness. Laying against him at that price is again the +EV play.

Depending on practice form and prices I might also look to have a small wager on Sutil/Button/Kubica causing an upset in qualifying.

Safety Car?

With such a low DNF rate and good run off areas in most places, taking the No Safety Car at -160 is the only sensible option. I usually only bet this market when I think the dog is a good chance, and I don't this week.

Fastest Lap

Button +800 and Massa +1500 look the value bets. But much depends on track position at the end of the race, and tire strategy, with the fastest lap.

After qualifying I will look closely at the runners who start outside the top 10, on the harder rubber compound. If a fast car looks likely to run an extended first stint, to be on the soft compound during the closing laps, it could be a good longshot play.

Podium Finish

Sutil is by far the best value play at +550 for a top 3 finish. Kubica is also some value at the same price. Interestingly the books have Alonso further under the odds than Hamilton in this market.

Top 6 Finish

Barrichello at +600 is good value here. Sutil at -125 is the only other serious contender near fair odds.

Winning Margin

I expect it to be fairly close. Odds on under 10 seconds are currently -115. I think even money is about the fair line.

[hedgejob]

Hamilton pole

[Optional]

Hamilton pole

Agreed. But I am a little nervous about it watching Practice 1. The Red Bulls look very sporty and very confident so far.

Button and Kubica look in with a chance too. Reserve driver DiResta is in Sutil's Force India for this session, and doing well, so Sutil should be better in P2.

[peterw111]

Nice break down Optional..... Will need to read over this again and consider options...

WELL DONE

[Optional]

Thanks Peter. I know it's probably too much for most people But I'll post some firm bets soon to make it easier.

Hoping to find out accurate info on the engine changes before qualifying as that will make a big difference to me. FIA aren't reliable in publishing it so have to rely on the BBC team mentioning it in practice 3 or one of the journalists on the spot finding out and reporting it.

[Optional]

Qualifying head to head matchups

Pinny has qualifying head 2 heads up.

Kamui Kobayashi +103
Pedro de la Rosa -114

This line looks the wrong way around to me. It might be based on de la Rosa being in front 7-6 on qualifying performances this year. That doesn't take into account Kobayashi coming into form after a poor start to the season though.

Jaime Alguersuari +108
Kamui Kobayashi -119

Beware that my opinion of Kobayashi seems to be a lot higher than the Pinny linesmaker, but this looks like a lock to me.

Vitaly Petrov -133
Nico Hulkenberg +120

Hulkenberg has been in the top 10 in both the first 2 practice sessions, and Petrov hasn't. The Renault is the better car but Williams are looking in good form so far, and Nico looks comfortable on the track. (I haven't seen much footage of Petrov so far)

Jarno Trulli -142
Heikki Kovalainen +129

This looks the wrong way around to me too. I'm always wary when my opinion varies a lot from the book, but I'm starting to get the feeling Pinny doesn't do much work on the back half of the field. I'd probably price this matchup Trulli -102 Heikki -108, so not a lock by any means, but Heikki looks great value at the price to me.

I can't spot any value in the rest...

Fernando Alonso +129
Sebastian Vettel -143

Fernando Alonso -126
Mark Webber +114

Jenson Button -145
Mark Webber +131

Fernando Alonso +110
Jenson Button -121

Lewis Hamilton -223
Sebastian Vettel +199

Felipe Massa +130
Mark Webber -144


Practice 3 underway now. Qualifying starts in just under 3 hours.

Good luck to all having a punt today.

[Optional]

Qualifying bets

Really interesting practice 3. Vettel finished fastest, but Hamilton and in particular Button looked to have things well in hand. Webber sat on the sidelines for the second practice session in a row after another mechanical fault put him out of contention. The McLarens, Ferraris and Red Bulls look a class ahead of the rest. One of them will probably have to make a big mistake in qualifying to miss a top 6 tomorrow.

The Force India and Renault cars looked less impressive than expected, whilst the Torro Rossos and Williams cars looked well in contention to fight out points places 7th to 10th this week. That's just in practice though, qualifying in an hour or so will sort out the real chalk from the cheese.

Here's my bets for qualifying;

Pole/Race double - Hamilton/Vettel +2100 (1x)
Pole/Race double - Hamilton/Webber +2400 (1x)

Back Vettel +540 (1x)
Lay Vettel +300 (1x) (for risk free 2.4 unit profit if he wins)

Back Button +520 (.5x) went too early and got a rubbish price there. +900 is around now.
Back Kubica +6500 (.2x)

Qualify Top 10 - Hulkenberg +125 (2x)

[Optional]

Vitaly Petrov -133
Nico Hulkenberg +120

If you can still get that price anywhere, hammer it I think.

[Optional]

Current reports say that everyone has taken a brand new engine apart from Webber, Barrichello and Pedro de la Rosa.

That could explain why Hulkenberg beat Barrichello in P3.

It suggests Ferrari think their chances are very good, having used their last fresh engine in both cars.

And makes the head to head on Koybayashi to out qualify de la Rosa at +103 extra good value.

[Optional]

Kamui Kobayashi +103 Win
Pedro de la Rosa -114

Jaime Alguersuari +108
Kamui Kobayashi -119 Win

Vitaly Petrov -133
Nico Hulkenberg +120 Win

Jarno Trulli -142
Heikki Kovalainen +129 Loss

3-1-0 = +2.09 units

[Optional]

Pole/Race double - Hamilton/Vettel +2100 (1x) Loss
Pole/Race double - Hamilton/Webber +2400 (1x) Loss

Back Vettel +540 (1x)
Lay Vettel +300 (1x) (for risk free 2.4 unit profit if he wins) Push

Back Button +520 (.5x) went too early and got a rubbish price there. +900 is around now. Loss
Back Kubica +6500 (.2x) Loss

Qualify Top 10 - Hulkenberg +125 (2x) Win

1-4-1 = -0.2 units

[tkt]

what are your bets for the race?

[Optional]

Monza Race Bets

Qualifying saw Alonso in the Ferrari take pole, but only by 1/10th from Button in the McLaren who lived up to his impressive Saturday record here.

There is nothing between the top 6 cars and with the 2 early Favorites, Hamilton and Vettel only managing 5th and 6th grid spots respectively, the lines have jumped all over the place, opening up a few opportunities.

Win Market

If you layed against Hamilton in the pre-practice market as suggested, you will be sitting pretty now, able to lock in quite a large risk free profit if you choose to.

Current Pinny lines;

Hamilton +668
Alonso -132
Vettel +2046
Button +278
Webber +1636
Massa +1126
Field +5110


I rate fair odds on Hamilton at +500 now, so if you are keen on him from 5th grid spot, the price makes it a good +EV play (and you can get on him at over +1000 some places)

I am still keen on him. It's a fair bet that he will have better race pace than Webber, and if the Ferraris can't hold up their pace over the extended run, that leaves only team mate Button in the way of a Hamilton win. And if you have been following the recent team orders saga, you wouldn't lay against WDC leader Hamilton managing to get past Button on the run home.

You will never see Vettel at that price again imho. It's way over the fair odds and worth a small speculator just based on the fact it's so massively +EV. (he's at +5000 on Betfair)

If you are wanting to bet on the two front row runners, I put their fair odds at Alonso +450 and Button +550, as a guide.

I'm not laying against Alonso in front of Ferraris home crowd, even though I don't think he will hold it together all day to win, and laying against him at -134 is a sharp play. So I can understand why many would.

I've taken;

Button +460 (.5x)
Hamilton +1050 (.5x)
Webber +850 (1x) <-- got a bad price too early. Will probably add another unit at +3000
Vettel +2075 (1x) <-- Same deal as Webber, now can get +5000



First Lap Leader

Alonso is -435 to hold the lead at the end of the first lap from pole. He has fluffed quite a few starts so far this year, has a wicked starter in Massa right behind him on the clean side, and Button in a high downforce configuration car beside him who will be much better able to brake late into the first corner if a fight is on.

Laying against Alonso only costs $23 to win $100 at that price, and I'm on it for (1x), even though it's just a gut feel gamble.

Podium Finish

Hamilton is pretty much right on my estimate of his fair odds at around +100 for a top 3 finish. So if you like him, go ahead.

Vettel and Webber are the 2 value bets at 87% and 27% over fair odds by my rating.

I've taken Webber +350 (2x)

Top 6 Finish

Kubica at +175 is around 20% over fair odds by my calcs. Barrichello +600 is the only other runner at value imho.

Points Finish (Top 10)

Button and Hamilton are both being offered at -500, which I think is slightly better than fair odds, so worth a bet.

Nothing else stands out.

Weirdly, all the longshots are most under the odds in this market in my opinion.

Fastest Lap

Too much of a lottery to interest me. Avoid the chalk every time. Vettel, Webber and Massa at +1000 might be worth a punt. Vettel always wants to go for it if possible.

Total Finishers U/O 18.5

A low DNF rate and 21 of 24 cars starting the race with brand new engines makes the over at -200 the play, if you want to make one.



Other bets;

No Safety Car -110 (3x)
Win Margin <10 seconds -160 (2x)
Winning car = RBR +1500 (.5x)

[Optional]

what are your bets for the race?

Yeah sorry I am so late. Wrote that post an hour or so ago and forgot to click submit.

[Optional]

Added a parlay, as a hedge really;

Alonso win -140
Kubica > Rosberg +111
Alonso Podium -390
McLaren Not win -206

pays +575 (1x)

Think I might have a straight 2x bet on Kubica at +111 in that matchup too.

[Optional]

Added;

Kubica > Rosberg +114 (5x)
Webber > Massa +157 (1x)
Hamilton > Massa -108 (2x)

[Poster X]

some good stuff here. like hamilton to take the title this year.

[hedgejob]

Hammy podium finish 2.01 at Pinny.

[Optional]

Hammy podium finish 2.01 at Pinny.

I like (although 2.10 would be better if it's drifting and you want to hold out a few more minutes)

[Optional]

OK, I'm off to surround myself in snacks and beer to watch the start.

Fingers crossed Alonso misses the jump to get us underway in the cashed-up way!

[hedgejob]

Hamilton is riding without f-duct system so he'll be faster on straights, hoping he jumps Webber on the start.

[Optional]

He jumped Alonso, and broke his steering arm.

The start really threw things into dissarray, even though I liked it at the time. Unless Massa has a problem, or blows the upcoming pitstop, he's going to stuff up a few of my side bets.

[hedgejob]

Hamilton is an idiot. When I saw him go into that corner with that speed I said to myself he's going to touch one of the Ferraris and he did.

[hedgejob]

So Alonso is 19 points behind Webber but he has used all 8 engines and the remaining races are Red Bull friendly. I think Webber to win it all bet is looking good, what do you think Optional?

[Optional]

It's all closed up again, Button and Vettel come back into contention right behind Alonso, and Hamilton is only 5 points behind Webber. But I do agree Alonso and Massa are going to have an uphill battle with the grid penalties they will surely take at least once before the end of the year, so they are out of calculations.

I like Webber's chances a lot, it's probably between him and Hamilton, but one DNF when the other 3 finish top 5 and suddenly he is fighting for third in the championship.

I did back him for the championship early in the year, but laid it off after his Monaco victory.

Apologies to anyone who tailed those late bets I added. They really ruined my overall profit margin for the race. Alonso winning was about the worst possible result for me too come to think. Oh well, will work out final position after more beer, but think I ended up just slightly in the black.

[tkt]

I missed all these bets of yours and made nice profit. Glad I didn't see you taking Kubica against Rosberg, because I was on the exact opposite side

[Optional]

I missed all these bets of yours and made nice profit. Glad I didn't see you taking Kubica against Rosberg, because I was on the exact opposite side

Ha, thanks for rubbing it in. Lots of words for a crappy result in the end this week.

Those late bets killed me. And both Ferrari's on the podium was just about my worst case scenario result. I should have listened to my own advice that they would only take new engines if very very confident. The fact almost everyone ended up taking a fresh unit threw me off.

Congrats to you though. Hopefully catch you for some discussion about Singapore in 2 weeks?

[Optional]

Monza Results

Button +460 (.5x)
Hamilton +1050 (.5x)
Webber +850 (1x)
Vettel +2075 (1x)
Alonso parlay +575 (1x)
Winning car RBR +1500 (.5x)
Webber podium +350 (2x)
Kubica > Rosberg +114 (5x)
Webber > Massa +157 (1x)
Hamilton > Massa -108 (2x)

-14.5 units lost

Alonso not lead lap 1 (1x) = +4u
No Safety Car -110 (3x) = +2.7
Win Margin <10 seconds -160 (2x) = +1.2u

+1.9 from pre-quali = +9.8 units won

For an overall result of -4.7 units this race.

Wish I had kept my powder dry on that late Kubica 5x bet. Confidence overtook me. Live and learn I guess.

[Optional]

I just re-read everything I wrote, and it's obvious from the very start of the weekend I had a strong opinion of Kubica, and then looked for evidence to support it each session. When the evidence didn't come I should have left him alone. Brain explosion.

Similar story for Massa, I started out with a low opinion of his chances, and proceeded to ignore the evidence and my modelling that said he would go well.

[smack]

Thanks for your work this weekend though Optional; I didn't think Kubica was such a bad pick on the basis of Montreal and Monza being fairly similar tracks in terms of fast straights and a few tight turns. I was all over Kamakazi Kobayashi finishing in the points until his Sauber fell apart one lap in!

I was with you on Massa as well; he just doesn't seem the same driver since his accident in Hungary last year - let alone from 2008. Seems we can hop off Ferrari for the rest of the year though, as they will have to take that 5 grid penalty, probably in Korea or Brazil.

Getting on the Red Bulls for Singapore; they've been talking that one up since before the summer break...

[Optional]

I'm with you on the Red Bull @ Singapore prediction... but am wary of taking in pre-conceptions after this race. ;-)

After some pondering, I 'think' both Ferrari drivers have a new engine available for use in the last race, because they actually used 3 engines in the opening round at Bahrain, including one on Saturday night they did for 'precautionary reasons'... which under the rules could not be used in a race, unless it is the last round. Not 100% sure if they have hammered those engines in Friday practice all year or saved them, but if the latter, that's 1 of 5 races they are good for. (and will actually have a marked advantage as no one else will save a fresh one for that race)

We also know for sure they have the Spa and Monza engines with only 1 race on them, so they are also good compared to everyone else for 2 of the other 4 races.

Everyone has to use at least 3 of their engines at 3 races, so assuming the Spa donk wasn't over worked in any way, they are on normal terms with everyone else for one more race. Leaving just 1 race as an unknown.

The wild card for them comes in if they haven't got any other engine with a race life left in it. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a new engine again in Singapore, just to get the grid penalty out of the way at a track where they might expect to qualify 5th/6th anyway. (although I'm also not sure about that, maybe they think South Korea will be worse for them)

I haven't written off Ferrari totally yet, but maybe I'm just looking for a reason to go against public sentiment and take the drifting odds too.

[tkt]

Ha, thanks for rubbing it in. Lots of words for a crappy result in the end this week.

Those late bets killed me. And both Ferrari's on the podium was just about my worst case scenario result. I should have listened to my own advice that they would only take new engines if very very confident. The fact almost everyone ended up taking a fresh unit threw me off.

Congrats to you though. Hopefully catch you for some discussion about Singapore in 2 weeks?

of course, I only had a parlay of this then
Rosberg - Kubica 1, odd 1.75
Button - Hamilton 1, odd 1.5(Hamilton retired at start and that made it already look so good)
paid out 2.64 odd


I'll let you know then. I think I will have bets already on qualifying.