Reedy's Aviva Premiership Rugby Thread

[reedy]

Hey guys,

I wanted to start a season long thread dedicated to the Aviva Premiership comp. I will be posting my picks weekly and hope to get some good feedback so we can all learn from each other and hopefully make a little cash.

I won't be playing every game and will post the reasons behind each one of my plays.

Season kicks off on Friday night { Sept 3rd } and first weeks plays will be up by late Thursday.

Feel free to fade and as always good luck

[reedy]

Apologies picks are up later than promised. Pinny have yet to put their lines up so I will be using The Greek if their not up by tomorrow morning.

Here are my current leans:

London Irish vs. Saracens

I think Saracens new signings Wigglesworth and Strettle will turn out to be the most crucial of the off-season in the league. The fact that they don’t really have a home field plays to their advantage and that they will continue their strong form of last seasons second half. Especially in away games.

Pick: Saracens
　
　
Leeds vs. Bath

Leeds will remain strong up front but I feel this could be the season for Bath. With the additions of Moody and Taylor up front I think they will be able to really challenge the top teams this year. Add to that James and Barkley are back to full health. Plus so guy called McGeechan is on board this year, I hear he’s pretty good.

Pick: Bath
　
　
Saints vs. Leicester

No doubt Leicester get it done and finish in the top 4 again but I think things will be alittle tougher this year. With the lose of Moody, Vesty, Ellis and Kay I think it may take them a few games to get it together. Northampton are fit, young, hungry and very tough at home. I like them to get it done this weekend.

Pick: Saints

Will update with units and lines taken before Saturdays first game.

[reedy]

Friday, Sept 3rd.

Sale v Newcastle

pick - sale -4 { -110 } x1 unit

[reedy]

Sept 5th, London Irish v Saracens

pick - saracens -4.5 {+101} x1 unit

Sept 6th, Leeds v Bath

pick - bath -7.5 {-105} x2 units

Sept 6th, Northampton v Leicester

pick - northampton -2.5 {-105} x1 unit

[reedy]

pick - sale -4 { -110 } x1 unit

pick - saracens -4.5 {+101} x1 unit

pick - bath -7.5 {-105} x2 units

pick - northampton -2.5 {-105} x1 unit

Not a bad start and hopefully more than blind luck. I guess time will tell.

I'm kicking myself over the Saracens game. I was caught up in their late form of last season and overlooked what strong starters the Irish are.

On to next week........

[reedy]

Picks will be up before tomorrow's game.

[reedy]

Friday Sept 10th, Necastle vs London Wasps


pick - Wasps -3 @ -105 x2 units.

• Newcastle still with plenty of 1st team players injured.
• Newcastle turned the ball over a massive 20 times last week.
• Wasps have won the past 3 meeting at Newcastle by 6 or more points.
• Wasps backrow full of speed an power.
• Jerry Guscott is a fvckpig and there's no way I tail him!

That said tail at your own risk. BOL!!!!

More picks to come.

[maroona]

hey reedy, looks like you did well last week, might tail you with the wasps

[reedy]

Thanks for the vote of confidence Maroona. Personally I would wait a few more weeks to tail me due to it being early in the season.

Of course that's not to say that I'm not confident in my picks. I capped Wasps at -6.5 for this game so I was happy with the line I got.

[reedy]

Sept 11th, Bath v London Irish

pick - Irish +7.5 @ -109 x1 unit

Sept 11th, Gloucester v Leeds

pick - Leeds +12.5 @ -109 x1 unit

[reedy]

Of course that's not to say that I'm not confident in my picks. I capped Wasps at -6.5 for this game so I was happy with the line I got.[/quote]

[maroona]

thats a shame about the wasps reedy, ah well move on

[reedy]

Sept 10th, Quins v Saints

pick - Saints ML -129 x1 unit

[reedy]

thats a shame about the wasps reedy, ah well move on

thanks mate, hope you didn't tail........

[maroona]

thanks mate, hope you didn't tail........

Yeah i did

[reedy]

Sept 12th, Saracens v Sale

pick - Sale +10.5 @ -105 x2 units

[reedy]

pick - Wasps -3 @ -105 x2 units

pick - Irish +7.5 @ -109 x1 unit { phew!! }

pick - Leeds +12.5 @ -109 x1 unit

pick - Saints ML -129 x1 unit

pick - Sale +10.5 @ -105 x2 units

Not a great weekend due to larger bets being on the wrong games. I still take wasps in that spot everytime. Sale gave up a try in the 78th minute to cook me. What do ya do??
Lesson of the week - pay attention to home field advantage regardless of prior results!!!!

On to next week.

[reedy]

Sept 17th, Saints v Bath

pick - saints -6.5 @ -101 x1 unit

Sept 17th, Sale v Quins

pick - quins ML @ +143 x1 unit

Tail at your own risk, BOL.

[sportscash]

I haven't placed many if any bets on this league so i will check your thread out.Good luck mate

[reedy]

Sept 18th, Exeter v Newcastle

pick - newcastle ML +120 x2 units

Sept 18th, Wasps v Tigers

pick - tigers ML -134 x2 units

[reedy]

I haven't placed many if any bets on this league so i will check your thread out.Good luck mate

Thanks boss.

[reedy]

Sept 19th, Irish v Gloucester

pick - irish -8.5 @-110 x4 units { yes i'm chasing }

[sportscash]

Sept 19th, Irish v Gloucester

pick - irish -8.5 @-110 x4 units { yes i'm chasing }

I had a bad run yesterday too hope it hits for you

[reedy]

I had a bad run yesterday too hope it hits for you

Me too. Serves me right though, its what I get what for not listening to my own advice. Home teams have been strong this season so far, especially when down in the second half.

Not to worry though. there will always be more games to win { or lose } and todays bet will give me a good sweat.

I'll be back next week with more fade-worthy material.

[51684]

Sept 19th, Irish v Gloucester

pick - irish -8.5 @-110 x4 units { yes i'm chasing }

Wow. Lost in the 83 minute by 1 point there..

[reedy]

pick - saints -6.5 @ -101 x1 unit

pick - quins ML @ +143 x1 unit

pick - newcastle ML +120 x2 units

pick - tigers ML -134 x2 units

pick - irish -8.5 @-110 x4 units { Irish concede in the 83rd minute!!!!!! }

A soul crushing weekend for sure and a large hill to climb back up bankroll wise. I'm not going to let this bad week bother me though.

Gonna hit the books hard and bounced back next week.

Son of a bitch!!!!!!

[reedy]

Wow. Lost in the 83 minute by 1 point there..

Yeah, i had the live scores up on the espn scrum website. It refreshed and the the laptop was nearly launched at the dog.

Sweet f*&king jesus........

Ah well.

[reedy]

Sept 25th, Bath v Sale

pick - Sale +11.5 @-105 x1 unit

Sept 25th, Quins v Exeter

pick - Exeter +10.5 @-111 x1 unit

[reedy]

Sept 25th, Tigers v Leeds

pick - Leeds +19.5 @-105 x2 units

[51684]

Bol

[reedy]

Wow. Now that's talent, not good talent but talent none the less.
Based on the above I'm currently 7-10 -11 units. Not good.

I'm gonna give it one more week to try and turn it around.

In the mean time I'll be in Vegas mid week and wanted to place some bets on the champions league. Anyone got any ideas???

[reedy]

Missed yesterdays games due to travel.

Oct 3rd, Sarries v Tigers

Pick - Sarries -5.5 @ -105 x2 units

[reedy]

Pick - Sarries -5.5 @ -105 x2 units