Super 14 week 4

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 01:30 AM

53 points and over went to $1.62 so instead i pulled hte trigger on chiefs/chiefs halftime/fulltime for 25 units @ $1.28....

Should be good

Domestic · 03-05-10, 01:50 AM

Apparently raining in Canberra at the moment, under 50 might be the play in that game.

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 02:07 AM

Thanks domestic ive got 33 overall units at stake on this chiefs game, all looking pretty safe right now, so im thinking of putting between 3-5 units on the lions +20.5 for the late game. Dont know for sure whether im going to make any play on the total. I'm also seeing a small amount of value im taking the brumbies by 12 and under @ $4.25 I might chuck a unit on that aswell.

Not sure though not sure bout either play. I might stew on it for a while while i watch this game. I think if the chiefs cover the 17 points i will definately put at least 2 units on the lions +20.5.

Are you from australia domestic?

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 02:52 AM

Not looking so good anymore

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 02:54 AM

chiefs -16.5 is gone now jus fingers crossed they win and the over

hedgejob · 03-05-10, 03:12 AM

Chiefs went to sleep, terrible performance.

Domestic · 03-05-10, 03:21 AM

Yes I am from Australia, bad luck on the Chiefs game. You will bounce back.

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 03:21 AM

Tell me about it what a shocker, im not sure whether to take action in the brumbies game or not now. Im shocked they just hit the wall

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 04:31 AM

Took a huge hit tonight so no play on the brumbies game for me im gonna sleep on it and get it back tommorrow. good call on the under, looks good at this stage. good luck on any plays you have on this one ill be back tomorrow with my picks for the evening. looking at stormers, crusaders, and tahs, but not sure what yet, canes looks like a tough one, hard to play in south africa, especially at altitude but the hurricanes are class.

BOL

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 04:36 AM

Now that i say that im looking at the second half line brumbies -10.5 doesn't look too bad. Brumbies should kill in the second half unless the lions improve. i might play it for 10 units to try get some back, what you guys think?

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 04:41 AM

Didn't take it plenty of time to come back. Especially with nrl starting next week

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 05:11 PM

Bad night last night, went 1 and 3 on posted picks and 0-3 at the books for a loss of 33 units total, that decision to put 25 units on the halftime/fulltime double really hurt me especially the way the chiefs started then just fizzled out but ah well i drank that night away and now ready to take revenge on those books..

Crusaders vs Blues:

Both these teams have had mixed seasons. The blues started off the season with a hiss and a roar before falling in the second half to the hurricanes. They then came out on top of a tough battle with the highlanders, I think this was a win that really strengthened the blues as a unit, a hard fought win. Last week they trumped the reds as 3 point dogs and it would be fair to say they are building some momentum in the opening weeks of the season.

The crusaders on the other hand started the season with a win over the highlanders and although the scoreline didn't reflect it the game was very thight at times and the highlanders had a few shots at causing the first big upset of the tournament. I think the crusaders felt a bit too secure with the return of dan carter and perhaps for the first two games didn't really have the urgency, dicipline and desire that canterbury rugby usually has. In week two the reds took the crusaders apart killing them across the park and starving the best #10 in the world of any good ball to lay a platform off. I think we can right off that game as any form guide to the crusaders, but what we can take from it is that it may have woken up the beast.

Im not sure what to take from last weeks game against the sharks because I rate the sharks as mediorce at best this year + add to that the fact that it was thier first game out of south africa and thier dillemas in the halves and you would expect nothing less from the crusaders.

I think this could be a season defining game for the crusaders against what is a better looking blues outfit this year. The crusaders will be wanting the W to kick start thier season and establish some good form. The blues motivation will be thier Rivalry with canterbury (not to mebtion canterbury have owned them the past couple years) and the fact that they face a tough road trip to SA and AUS over the next 3 weeks.

I would be surprised if the blues can catch the crusaders napping. And expect dan carter and co to pick the holes in the blues and come away with the W and some momentum heading into the middle weeks of the season. However the blues are vastly improved on previous versions and i think they may be able to keep it close and maybe secure a bonus point.

I like:

*Crusaders by 12 and under @ $2.75

(i may hedge this with crusaders 8-14 and 15-21 though to cover any last minute try dramas(hopefully might be able to hit the 12 and under aswell as the 8-14) not sure yet though as im unsure about units etc)

*I think the totals about where it should be for this game and I can see it being about a 30-20 scoreline, leaning on the 50 points and under though @ $1.85

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 05:35 PM

Waratahs vs Sharks

I can see this one being a slow game where the tahs just slowly wear down and smother the lowly sharks. I say they own them but not sure if they will be able to run up a huge score, most likely both teams going up in 3s for a while with maybe a try near the end of the first half and perhaps a couple in the 2nd.

Id love to play the tahs at -6.5 or -7.5 but the line im getting is -10.5 which i think they should cover but seems a little too high so ill probably do something like;

Waratahs 8-14 for 2 units @ $4.50
Waratahs 15-21 for 1 unit @ $5.50

And maybe total combined points 45 & under @ $1.85 for 1 unit

Id love some thoughts and opinions on this one as im not so sure about the non NZ teams. Love some thoughts from sportcash and domestic and maybe someone from SA, SafCappa? You still there?

peterw111 · 03-05-10, 06:02 PM

WARATAHS v SHARKS: Whilst it has stopped raining in Sydney today, it did rain overnight so expect a wet ground even though conditions itself should be good.

Still plenty of time before the kick-offs but Blues +12.5pts has been a very solid play on Sportsbooks and the current line we have for Waratahs is -7.5pts and that should be enough to account for the sharks.

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 06:07 PM

Stormers vs Highlanders & Cheetahs vs Hurricanes

These two Im very unsure about, I think there could be value around the stormers by 12 and under ($2.65). The highlanders are a team that dont win very often but then also don't often lose by many. Another thought is stormers -6.5 @ $1.87 this i probably right where it should be and has confused me even more about this game because i think either the stormers will roll the highlanders and run away winners by 13+ or it could be very close and come down to a conversion or penalty to seperate them. If the line was more like -9.5 i would probably make a play on the stormers or if it was 3.5 id probably take the highlanders but 6.5 seems like an awkward # and at this stage this game shapes as a no play on the side.

I think the pick for this game for me is the total which should stay under 45, two defensive teams in a tight low scoring affair, I cant see either team puttng up 30 so I think this will be my play on this game.

The amount i put on it will depend on the results of the early games, hopefully i can get something to go my way

Total points 45 & under @ 1.85

The cheetahs canes game is one i will probably stay away from, I have no idea how the canes will perform at bloemfontain, if this game was in wellington i would take them minus anything but travelling to SA does funny thing to NZ teams and playing at altitude aswell, not a combination I want any part of.
I think the cheetahs are an underrated unit, especially at home and there could be value in taking them plus the points or even better 12 and under but i cant bet against the hurricanes so i think ill bow out of this one.

Domestic · 03-05-10, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by peterw111

WARATAHS v SHARKS: Whilst it has stopped raining in Sydney today, it did rain overnight so expect a wet ground even though conditions itself should be good. Still plenty of time before the kick-offs but Blues +12.5pts has been a very solid play on Sportsbooks and the current line we have for Waratahs is -7.5pts and that should be enough to account for the sharks.

Yeah, confident Waratahs can cover that spread in any type of conditions tonight. I live in Sydney though and right now the sun is out and shining not too many clouds in the sky, should be dry enough.

sportscash · 03-05-10, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by nzwarrior

Waratahs vs Sharks

I can see this one being a slow game where the tahs just slowly wear down and smother the lowly sharks. I say they own them but not sure if they will be able to run up a huge score, most likely both teams going up in 3s for a while with maybe a try near the end of the first half and perhaps a couple in the 2nd.

Id love to play the tahs at -6.5 or -7.5 but the line im getting is -10.5 which i think they should cover but seems a little too high so ill probably do something like;

Waratahs 8-14 for 2 units @ $4.50
Waratahs 15-21 for 1 unit @ $5.50

And maybe total combined points 45 & under @ $1.85 for 1 unit

Id love some thoughts and opinions on this one as im not so sure about the non NZ teams. Love some thoughts from sportcash and domestic and maybe someone from SA, SafCappa? You still there?

I was so close to making Waratahs a bet so they are the side but -10.5 is a bit high.If you can get good odds on the -10.5 i think its worth a shot.No money for me on this one but i will be cheering Waratahs on.Good luck with whatever you decide.

nzwarrior · 03-05-10, 08:12 PM

peter,

crusaders will not lose this game, if you think blues +12.5 is the play then i would say to take the better odds on crusaders 12 & under, were getting $2.80 here at NZ TAB. Ive just played it myself for 10 units. The difference in this game is one team has dan carter and the other doesn't, thats how i see it anyway.

sportscash,

Im seeing $2.05 for the -10.5 or $2.15 for the waratahs by 13+ any value there? What do you think of the over/under at 45.5?
Hoping that if I hold out long enough the spread may change to something a little more favourable if more money comes on the sharks

sportscash · 03-05-10, 09:33 PM

Compared to the Australia TAB there isn't any value.Here it is -7.5 $1.95 and 13+ is $2.50.As for the over/under i'm not too sure ,without taking weather into account I thought the line should be around 50 points but as Domestic said the conditions should be dry enough.Wish i could be more of help.

tomylee1 · 03-20-10, 03:05 AM

its quite different.