Joenaes' Cycling thread 2015

**Joenaes** · 03-27-15, 11:10 PM

Bets for Catalunya tomorrow:

Hivert > Simon	-145	264.57	182.46
Ferrari > Henderson	-140	388.3	273.46
Coquard < Field	-380	570	150
Valverde > Alaphilippe	-104	288.04	273.46

Another stage were a breakaway is actually pretty possible. There is a big climb halfway and another tiny climb 30 km from the finish. A sprint is probably reasonably likely but given the lack of sprinter teams a breakaway or a 10 man group is definitely possible too.

This is why I take the field over Coquard. Great sprinter, but there are a couple of fast guys out there too and then there is still the possibility of no mass sprint. If his odds were +550 i would probably take his side again, but i think these are a bit optimistic.

Hivert has been sprinting really well so far this race. Simon is definitely not on the same level has him at this moment.

Henderson is going to have to work for his team mate and sprinter Vallee. Ferrari should be able to sprint for himself and end well before a helper of Vallee.

Valverde is only 7" away from the yellow jersey. He is definitely eyeing this stage because if he wins, he will get bonus seconds and catch the number 1 position in the GC. He also has won 2 stages already, hes in great form and even against good sprinters, he can still compete with them. Alaphillipe has been very inconsistent so far as well. Probably on paper a better sprinter, but results have definitely been lacking. A clear bet on Valverde for me.

Best of luck to us!

**Joenaes** · 03-28-15, 02:52 PM

There was indeed a break away, unfortunately Alaphilippe was part of it. But we won the other 3 at least

.

Balance: $6,394.71

**Joenaes** · 03-28-15, 09:48 PM

Final stage in Catalunya tomorrow, here are my picks:

Uran > Field	894	100	894
Van Garderen > Atapuma	129	283.94	353.28
Hivert > Tiralongo	124	283.94	347.09
Porte > Pozzovivo	-108	185	171.3
Martin > Kelderman	110	183.94	202.33
Pardilla > Caruso	167	150	250.5

No more chance for the sprinters, in the race around Barcelona we will have 8 local rounds with a 2.5km climb in it.
We will most likely have a fight again amongst the GC riders. Lots of people will attempt a breakaway which leader Porte wouldn't mind but Pozzovivo, Contador and Valverde will not like that. Since they are very close in the GC and with a stage win they can maybe secure the yellow jersey, so this why a breakaway has little chance of succeeding I think.

I really want to take Valverde for the stage win, but for +250 there is not enough value there I think. He is still the favorite to win the stage though. Uran however is good value i think at +894. He has been second twice so far in the race and he is in great form.

2./3./5./6. are all about evenly matched I think so I am taking the dogs here. Martin probably is even a slight favorite over Kelderman I think since he is a better sprinter.

Then Porte will try his best to stay in front of Pozzovivo. He only has a few seconds lead to him so he will make sure to not lose his eyes on him. Porte is in great form so I see him succeeding in that.

Let's get it boys!

**Joenaes** · 03-29-15, 09:05 AM

Valverde won as expected, always hurts when you really think someone is going to win but the odds are just not right to go with it

.

Overall pretty terrible final stage for me. JUst managed to get 1 out of 6.
They were all pretty close though and probably coinflips as I thought.

Hope not too many tailed on this one.
On to the next!

Balance: $5,838.92

**lelicek** · 03-29-15, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Joenaes

Final stage in Catalunya tomorrow, here are my picks:

Uran > Field	894	100	894
Van Garderen > Atapuma	129	283.94	353.28
Hivert > Tiralongo	124	283.94	347.09
Porte > Pozzovivo	-108	185	171.3
Martin > Kelderman	110	183.94	202.33
Pardilla > Caruso	167	150	250.5

No more chance for the sprinters, in the race around Barcelona we will have 8 local rounds with a 2.5km climb in it.
We will most likely have a fight again amongst the GC riders. Lots of people will attempt a breakaway which leader Porte wouldn't mind but Pozzovivo, Contador and Valverde will not like that. Since they are very close in the GC and with a stage win they can maybe secure the yellow jersey, so this why a breakaway has little chance of succeeding I think.

I really want to take Valverde for the stage win, but for +250 there is not enough value there I think. He is still the favorite to win the stage though. Uran however is good value i think at +894. He has been second twice so far in the race and he is in great form.

2./3./5./6. are all about evenly matched I think so I am taking the dogs here. Martin probably is even a slight favorite over Kelderman I think since he is a better sprinter.

Then Porte will try his best to stay in front of Pozzovivo. He only has a few seconds lead to him so he will make sure to not lose his eyes on him. Porte is in great form so I see him succeeding in that.

Let's get it boys!

it is happened, what i was affraid...when not counting uran vs.field with odds 1,10 decimal, nearly disaster...1 win vs. 4 loss.
what hope brings higher odds when we lost ? better bet with 1,50 with 90% accuracy as odds 2,50 with 20%.

thanks for your hard work.
When will be next race to return todays loss ?

**Joenaes** · 03-30-15, 10:36 PM

Next race would be tomorrow. 3daagse De panne is starting then.

I have following picks for the GC:

Boom > Wiggins	-229	443.64	183.7
Quinziato > Kristoff	127	72.32	91.85

Boom is my favorite to win the race. He did not have good results yet this year but last week he was involved in a crash, when he was riding on his own to the leaders. He actually had a huge impression on me and he is a man with a bunch of talent.
Wiggins is in good form too but I think he will be rather careful to not waste too much energy or risk crashes since he is eyeing the Tour de Flandres on sunday. This is the same for Boom, but I think that Boom will want to see his own form proven since he did not have any good results yet.

Also Kristoff I think will be careful with his eyes on Sunday. Quinziato on the other hand will be very motivated for this race since he can be riding freely this race, without having to help a leader. He also has very good results in this race a couple of years ago.

My picks for tomorrows stage:

Field > Kristoff	-519	476.7	91.85
Boom > Pozzato	-259	522.63	183.7

Again, I go with Boom. I think he will be very close to the win tomorrow. Pozatto on the other hand is recovering from an illness and should be well behind Boom in this stage. Boom will need to be involved in a crash I think to do worse than him.

No way that Kristoff gets these odds to win the stage. He is one of the guys with a chance at victory yes, but definitely not the big favorite to win the stage.

Pretty gay that the odds on Pinnacle chance so fast, even after just betting 91.85 EUR, the odds get significantly worse. Sorry for those who are betting there after me.

Anyways, let's get it

**poirot86** · 04-03-15, 05:05 PM

Hope that you will post some bets for Tour of Flanders.

Greets.

**Joenaes** · 04-03-15, 08:43 PM

Hey,

Yes I definitely will. My favorite race of the year, the bets are online now on Pinny, will post some tomorrow

.

I overestimated Boom in last race and underestimated Kristoff. I thought he would save energy for this Sunday but he was trying to win it all :P. Took a reasonable hit this week.

Balance: $5,029.96

**Joenaes** · 04-03-15, 10:41 PM

Picks I have for now:

thomas > field	492	92.42	454.71
dillier > wynants	102	92.42	94.27
wiggins > stannard	130	92.42	134.93
sagan > kristoff	146	92.42	134.93
thomas > van marcke	-106	97.97	92.42
van Avermaet > Stybar	140	92.42	129.39

I would have liked to bet more on them but odds drop like from +140 to +120 if i invest 92.42 eur. All bets would still be profitable tho but it just feels so ugly.

1. Thomas is my main man for the race. I think he is just one notch higher than everyone else. His performance at the E3 was very impressive and he has a great teammate in Wiggins. Would have liked the odds to be a little better but should still be a good deal.

2. Wynants hasnt done anything all year and he is just not good anymore. He is 34 and his time is over. Dillier on the other hand is young and has had some good results this year. He was even top 50 last year when he was 23. I value him a lot higher than Wynants so I happily take this even bet.

3. Wiggins is in superior form and is looking to hand Thomas the victory. He is going to work for him, yes, but this means he will be at the front of the race till deep in the finale. The Ronde is a little too hard for Stannard imo, too hilly for his liking. I think Wiggins is a favorite here to be ahead of him so at +130 i had a great price.

4. Kristoff is obviously i great form, but so is Sagan. Sagan is stronger on the hills. I think they probably have very even chances here so I happily take the odds of Sagan.

5. Thomas is my favorite so yes he will win head to head to Van Marcke too. Van Marcke is very strong too, he will very likely be top 5. But more often than not, Thomas will win this duel I think.

6. Another quite even spot I think. Van Avermaet is in great form and he almost won last year. I think he might be even a little better than Stybar so again, I gladly take his side.

I might add some more tomorrow.

Looking forward to this race a looooot. Together with Paris-Roubaix, my favorite.

**Joenaes** · 04-05-15, 09:56 AM

Live bet:

Alexander Kristoff @ 1.72
Stake: €213.21 (€213.21 × 1 Bet)
Estimated Returns: €368.27

**Joenaes** · 04-05-15, 11:50 AM

Result from pre-game bets:

+38.82
+155.06 LIVE

I also put some extra on Dillier, but didnt put that here so wont record that, that was a win too

.

Balance: 5,223.84

**poirot86** · 04-05-15, 03:01 PM

Preety good race, when it comes to Terpstra and Kristoff, I think everyone knew that it will be Kristoff.

What a week for Norwegian.

Looking forward to Paris - Roubaix. But tomorrow start to Tour of Basque.

**Joenaes** · 04-11-15, 07:17 PM

Last week I was following the live betting scene a bit on the tour de flandres and I feel like it might be even better for me to bet there. I saw a lot of incorrect odds and in a sport with so many uncertainties, it might actually be a better bet.

I just made one bet before hand that I liked. For the others I will give live updates. I'll be betting on Ladbrokes and Unibet.

Lars Boom (NED)
-vs-
Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)

Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)
@ 1.925 D

Risk: EUR 203.42
Win: EUR 188.16

Greg has finished before Boom in the past 2 editions and he is in great form. Boom too but he has always been an unpredictable rider. Ill take Greg here with the 50/50 odds

**twinky99** · 04-24-15, 06:03 PM

What happened to Joenaes?

**icecapper** · 05-12-15, 01:31 PM

Any more cycling picks? I like Richie Porte to win the Giro at 4-1.