dRavidC's NRL 2015

[dRavidC]

Hey Guys !

I'm back for another season of NRL.

Starting off the season with a 4* banger, a go hard or go home play. If my luck from last year is anything to go by, it's go home LOL.

05/03/15

Round 1

4* Broncos vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40

As we saw in the Auckland Nines, teams are placing more emphasis on defence (even if it was defence was 2/3rd stringer teams) and I feel like defence will again be an emphasis this season. Tonight we have two strong teams up against each other, the premiers in the Rabbitohs up against a rejuvenated and Wayne Benett led Broncos side. Yes both teams have plenty of offensive weapons but I think tonight we see a defensive grind. We saw Brisbane play a grinding type of football in the UK and we saw South Sydney keep St Helens to 0. This is also Parker's 300th game and I can imagine his team will rally around him and play their hearts out in keeping the Rabbitohs backs in check. The line is super low at +2/-2 and i'm feeling a bit suss /on edge about it. But what I do see happening is a low scoring affair, i have this game capped in the low-mid 30's.

Stat of the day: Since the introduction of opening round thursday night matches, average match totals haave been 34.33.

[TheDane]

Damn, what a shitty way to lose the push.... Better luck next time.

[Domestic]

Ridiculously shitty luck.

[dRavidC]

Hey Guys !

I'm back for another season of NRL.

Starting off the season with a 4* banger, a go hard or go home play. If my luck from last year is anything to go by, it's go home LOL.

05/03/15

Round 1

4* Broncos vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40 LOSER

As we saw in the Auckland Nines, teams are placing more emphasis on defence (even if it was defence was 2/3rd stringer teams) and I feel like defence will again be an emphasis this season. Tonight we have two strong teams up against each other, the premiers in the Rabbitohs up against a rejuvenated and Wayne Benett led Broncos side. Yes both teams have plenty of offensive weapons but I think tonight we see a defensive grind. We saw Brisbane play a grinding type of football in the UK and we saw South Sydney keep St Helens to 0. This is also Parker's 300th game and I can imagine his team will rally around him and play their hearts out in keeping the Rabbitohs backs in check. The line is super low at +2/-2 and i'm feeling a bit suss /on edge about it. But what I do see happening is a low scoring affair, i have this game capped in the low-mid 30's.

Stat of the day: Since the introduction of opening round thursday night matches, average match totals haave been 34.33.

And go home it is lol...

Thanks guys, and what a way to ruin the cover with an after the siren meaningless penalty

NRL 2015 Record: 0 - 1 - 0

- 4.00 units

[dRavidC]

06/03/15

Round 1

5* Eels M/L vs Sea Eagles

Eagles have the better halves but Eels forward pack shits on that of the Manly Sea Eagles. This is not the same Manly team as the one from previous seasons. Eels win this, and they are generally very good in opening season games.

[dRavidC]

06/03/15

Round 1

5* Eels M/L vs Sea Eagles WINNER

Eagles have the better halves but Eels forward pack shits on that of the Manly Sea Eagles. This is not the same Manly team as the one from previous seasons. Eels win this, and they are generally very good in opening season games.

From a sour loss to an easy winner, you don't often get moments in the NRL where pick-ems turn into 30 point lashings so gotta cherish it when those moments come.

NRL 2015 Record: 1 - 1 - 0

+ 0.60 units

[dRavidC]

07/03/15

Round 1

1* Knights vs Warriors M/L

A gut instinct play more than anything, thus the mere 1 unit thrown. I think the Warriors have the advantage in their foward pack and thier outside backs but it's playing away from New Zealand that is usually the achilles. And add in the fact that they traditionally do not play well in 1st round fixtures when playing away from home. The Knights have a formidable lineup themselves with Mullen 100% healthy and Gidley playing at his preferred position in fullback. I think the outcome of this game rests solely on Shaun Johnson, he has a cracker warriors win; he has a shocker, knights win. Johnson looks like he's evolving every season and I just get the feeling he leads the warriors over the knights in a close one.

[TheDane]

Nice call for yesterday!

[dRavidC]

07/03/15

Round 1

1* Knights vs Warriors M/L LOSER

A gut instinct play more than anything, thus the mere 1 unit thrown. I think the Warriors have the advantage in their foward pack and thier outside backs but it's playing away from New Zealand that is usually the achilles. And add in the fact that they traditionally do not play well in 1st round fixtures when playing away from home. The Knights have a formidable lineup themselves with Mullen 100% healthy and Gidley playing at his preferred position in fullback. I think the outcome of this game rests solely on Shaun Johnson, he has a cracker warriors win; he has a shocker, knights win. Johnson looks like he's evolving every season and I just get the feeling he leads the warriors over the knights in a close one.

had a feeling this would happen hence the low unit play. warriors were in a strong position, but faltered with yet another poor 2nd half. disappointing johnson yet again...

NRL 2015 Record: 1 - 2 - 0

- 0.40 units

[DonnieDEEDS]

Hey mate!

Good to see a thread on the nrl here!

On the knights game i dont think warriors were ever in a strong position in that game, got a lucky 8 point try and newcastle defence on short kick returns was horrendous alowwing them to get into newcastles half early in the count on multiple occassions, especcially the second try.

Newcastle really should have blown them out missing 3-4 opportunities and there defence in the second half was quite good.
warriors do have alot of young potential and will improve quickly this season.
i agree on johnson(was very flat in the second half), once they went behind he left townsend to shoulder all the attack.

Got any wagers tonight?

Have the boys -4.5 @ 2.10 (TAB) , BOYS/TIGS parlay.

[dRavidC]

Hey mate,

well at 14-6 and with knights down a man, they could have made more of that period of dominance and put the game to bed by the 60th minute but they didn't and paid for it. most surprising result yesterday were the cowboys getting smoked at home. I do have plays, but still working towards it.

Who are the boys?

[dRavidC]

08/03/15

Round 1

2* Panthers vs Bulldogs -2

Last time these 2 met, the dogs eliminated the panthers from the semis. The Panthers team is pretty similar from last year but the Bulldogs team this year has been boosted by notable additions in Brett Morris and Lichaa and they will definitely have an impact on this game. The big advantage is the bulldogs forward pack, not only is the starting pack menacing but their bench is insane (headed by Kasiano). I'm expecting the bulldogs to start their season well and overpower the panthers for a more comfortable win than what the odds are suggesting.

2* Sharks vs Raiders OVER 41.5

This has the feel of a fun high scoring affair. The Sharks at full strength with the addition of Barba and the Raiders will a new look halves combination and also a new-look and formidable forward pack. We have two very looking forward packs up against one another and i think that will help set up each side's respective offences. I do think the Sharks win but 7.5 a lot of points and I see a free flowing points-a-plenty sort of game. I have this game capped in the high 40's+.

[DonnieDEEDS]

The boys is just short for cowboys.

That didnt go to plan and the titans showed alot of fight last night.
In saying that the tigers looked sloppy with the young halves and there kicking game i thought was pretty average.

Like the dogs pick, the experience should be enough to get them home even though they are playing at penrith.
I am on the sharks with the 7.5, sharks could have the best forward pack this year in my opinion and should be able to give there backs alot of room to move.
Barba is the key i think, in his new position he could be explosive if he goes at the line.

do you wager on the rugby?

BOL today

[dRavidC]

The boys is just short for cowboys.

That didnt go to plan and the titans showed alot of fight last night.
In saying that the tigers looked sloppy with the young halves and there kicking game i thought was pretty average.

Like the dogs pick, the experience should be enough to get them home even though they are playing at penrith.
I am on the sharks with the 7.5, sharks could have the best forward pack this year in my opinion and should be able to give there backs alot of room to move.
Barba is the key i think, in his new position he could be explosive if he goes at the line.

do you wager on the rugby?

BOL today

i do make occasional plays in the super rugby, but my strengths lie with nrl & afl

[ultrasouth]

Bulldogs down 24-0

[dRavidC]

08/03/15

Round 1

2* Panthers vs Bulldogs -2

Last time these 2 met, the dogs eliminated the panthers from the semis. The Panthers team is pretty similar from last year but the Bulldogs team this year has been boosted by notable additions in Brett Morris and Lichaa and they will definitely have an impact on this game. The big advantage is the bulldogs forward pack, not only is the starting pack menacing but their bench is insane (headed by Kasiano). I'm expecting the bulldogs to start their season well and overpower the panthers for a more comfortable win than what the odds are suggesting.

4* Sharks vs Raiders OVER 41.5
added 2 more units to this play

This has the feel of a fun high scoring affair. The Sharks at full strength with the addition of Barba and the Raiders will a new look halves combination and also a new-look and formidable forward pack. We have two very looking forward packs up against one another and i think that will help set up each side's respective offences. I do think the Sharks win but 7.5 a lot of points and I see a free flowing points-a-plenty sort of game. I have this game capped in the high 40's+.

adding 2 more units to Sharks Raiders Game

[BigNik]

I have a parlay with Parra/Souths/Roosters/Penrith the f;#cking Sharks. They look terrible!!!!

[DonnieDEEDS]

They should get the win big, need to stop making silly mistakes.

Great call on the over mate, well on track!

[dRavidC]

08/03/15

Round 1

2* Panthers vs Bulldogs -2 LOSER

Last time these 2 met, the dogs eliminated the panthers from the semis. The Panthers team is pretty similar from last year but the Bulldogs team this year has been boosted by notable additions in Brett Morris and Lichaa and they will definitely have an impact on this game. The big advantage is the bulldogs forward pack, not only is the starting pack menacing but their bench is insane (headed by Kasiano). I'm expecting the bulldogs to start their season well and overpower the panthers for a more comfortable win than what the odds are suggesting.

4* Sharks vs Raiders OVER 41.5 WINNER
added 2 more units to this play

This has the feel of a fun high scoring affair. The Sharks at full strength with the addition of Barba and the Raiders will a new look halves combination and also a new-look and formidable forward pack. We have two very looking forward packs up against one another and i think that will help set up each side's respective offences. I do think the Sharks win but 7.5 a lot of points and I see a free flowing points-a-plenty sort of game. I have this game capped in the high 40's+.

Sharks Raiders already > 41.5 so I'm gonna count it as a win. It's a major shame bulldogs came to play so late cause their forward pack should have destroyed that of the Panthers. Oh well, we lose the 2* but we cash the 4*. We end the day of a positive so not too fussed.

NRL 2015 Record: 2 - 3 - 0

+1.28 units

[yacuna island]

First couple of weeks in the NRL are brutal for betting.

Well done for being ahead.

Did you see the books take down the Manly/Melbourne game down?

They opened Manly as a favourite! lol
The line has flipped since

[dRavidC]

First couple of weeks in the NRL are brutal for betting.

Well done for being ahead.

Did you see the books take down the Manly/Melbourne game down?

They opened Manly as a favourite! lol
The line has flipped since

cheers mate, well it's still close to a pickem for melbourne so still playable. i usually wait till on the day to see squad finalisation.

[dRavidC]

13/03/15

Round 2

2* Bulldogs vs Eels UNDER 40

Sorry no time for write-up

[dRavidC]

13/03/15

Round 2

2* Bulldogs vs Eels UNDER 40 LOSER

Sorry no time for write-up

Another classic case of a low scoring 1st half and then a mammoth high scoring 2nd half. Might think about 1st half UNDERS in future.

NRL 2015 Record: 2 - 4 - 0

-0.72 units

[dRavidC]

14/03/15

Round 2

4* Panthers vs Titans UNDER 42.5

Apologies for the late post.

Last week we had a Panthers side that looked like world beaters against the bulldogs leading 24-0 midway through 2nd half but then became complacent and shut down and allowed the dogs to score 18 unanswered points. I think the coach will be drilling them about that defensive lapse and I don't think we see a repeat of that this afternoon. Titans played a relatively low scoring game with the tigers (18-19). The titans will know what Segayaro is capable of by his demolition over the bulldogs and I'm sure there will be plans to keep his aggression in check. The only side I see putting on the points in this contest are the Panthers. The Titans whilst having a solid backline have "makeshift" halves who will struggle to string plays past this panthers defence. As long as the Panthers don't go into shutdown mode like they did last week, this game should stay UNDER. I have this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

[Domestic]

Those missed conversions at the start of the game ended up being very handy.

[dRavidC]

14/03/15

Round 2

4* Panthers vs Titans UNDER 42.5 WINNER

Apologies for the late post.

Last week we had a Panthers side that looked like world beaters against the bulldogs leading 24-0 midway through 2nd half but then became complacent and shut down and allowed the dogs to score 18 unanswered points. I think the coach will be drilling them about that defensive lapse and I don't think we see a repeat of that this afternoon. Titans played a relatively low scoring game with the tigers (18-19). The titans will know what Segayaro is capable of by his demolition over the bulldogs and I'm sure there will be plans to keep his aggression in check. The only side I see putting on the points in this contest are the Panthers. The Titans whilst having a solid backline have "makeshift" halves who will struggle to string plays past this panthers defence. As long as the Panthers don't go into shutdown mode like they did last week, this game should stay UNDER. I have this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

A lot closer than what we would have liked. Luck has usually been going against me this season so it was good to have it go my way this time round. From video-ref denied tries to missed conversions, we cash this one JUST. Win's a win and onto today's games.

NRL 2015 Record: 3 - 4 - 0

+2.96 units

[dRavidC]

15/03/15

Round 2

3* Rabbitohs vs Roosters UNDER 38

The best two teams in the comp up against one another. Both these defences were absolutely dominant against their foes last week. Rabbitohs kept the broncos to 6, roosters kept attacking powerhouse cowboys to 4 in QLD! Both teams also have devastating attacks but I think defence takes over this afternoon. I see a grinding style of footy and we definitely won't see a barrage of points like we've seen these two teams have done on their respective opponents last week. I have this game capped in the low-mid 30's.

2* Raiders vs Warriors -1.5

Raiders beat a disjointed Cronulla team, warriors gave away an 8 point lead and played a horrible 2nd half away from home against the Knights. Tomkins returns to the lineup and I think this will help in sync a warriors attack that last week looked absolutely clueless especially in the 2nd half. Yes the raiders beat a star studded cronulla team but let's be honest, those sharkies did beat themselves and are still trying to gel together with a lot of new pieces in their team. Now we have a full strength warriors team that play poorly on the road against a fired up confident raiders. The forward pack is fairly even but the warriors have the definite advantage in their backs and halves. Once again, this game rests in the hands of Shaun Johnson and I just can't see him having 2 dud games in a row. Time will tell if I'm right or not, Warriors come away with a much needed win tonight.

[dRavidC]

15/03/15

Round 2

3* Rabbitohs vs Roosters UNDER 38

The best two teams in the comp up against one another. Both these defences were absolutely dominant against their foes last week. Rabbitohs kept the broncos to 6, roosters kept attacking powerhouse cowboys to 4 in QLD! Both teams also have devastating attacks but I think defence takes over this afternoon. I see a grinding style of footy and we definitely won't see a barrage of points like we've seen these two teams have done on their respective opponents last week. I have this game capped in the low-mid 30's.

5* Raiders vs Warriors -1.5
added 2 more units to this play

Raiders beat a disjointed Cronulla team, warriors gave away an 8 point lead and played a horrible 2nd half away from home against the Knights. Tomkins returns to the lineup and I think this will help in sync a warriors attack that last week looked absolutely clueless especially in the 2nd half. Yes the raiders beat a star studded cronulla team but let's be honest, those sharkies did beat themselves and are still trying to gel together with a lot of new pieces in their team. Now we have a full strength warriors team that play poorly on the road against a fired up confident raiders. The forward pack is fairly even but the warriors have the definite advantage in their backs and halves. Once again, this game rests in the hands of Shaun Johnson and I just can't see him having 2 dud games in a row. Time will tell if I'm right or not, Warriors come away with a much needed win tonight.

adding 3 more units to warriors game

[dRavidC]

15/03/15

Round 2

3* Rabbitohs vs Roosters UNDER 38

The best two teams in the comp up against one another. Both these defences were absolutely dominant against their foes last week. Rabbitohs kept the broncos to 6, roosters kept attacking powerhouse cowboys to 4 in QLD! Both teams also have devastating attacks but I think defence takes over this afternoon. I see a grinding style of footy and we definitely won't see a barrage of points like we've seen these two teams have done on their respective opponents last week. I have this game capped in the low-mid 30's.

5* Raiders vs Warriors -1.5
added 2 more units to this play

Raiders beat a disjointed Cronulla team, warriors gave away an 8 point lead and played a horrible 2nd half away from home against the Knights. Tomkins returns to the lineup and I think this will help in sync a warriors attack that last week looked absolutely clueless especially in the 2nd half. Yes the raiders beat a star studded cronulla team but let's be honest, those sharkies did beat themselves and are still trying to gel together with a lot of new pieces in their team. Now we have a full strength warriors team that play poorly on the road against a fired up confident raiders. The forward pack is fairly even but the warriors have the definite advantage in their backs and halves. Once again, this game rests in the hands of Shaun Johnson and I just can't see him having 2 dud games in a row. Time will tell if I'm right or not, Warriors come away with a much needed win tonight.

What a game with the rabbitohs roosters (even though we lost). Once rabbits put on 2 tries in the first 12 minutes I knew our play was busted but not too phased, more often than not you're gonna be on the wrong side of plays and I was completely on the wrong total no doubt about that.

We lose out on the smaller unit but cash the bigger unit plays, thus why my record is under 50% but i'm up close to 5 units. I thought the warriors was way too undervalued to ignore as I know the bookies would have taken into account warriors poor away record, poor record in canberra combined with raiders winning last week. It was an entertaining game and I must say I'm still a bit puzzled with Johnson who showed glimpses but was overall a shell of his usual self. Not sure if that arm knock he copped had something to do with it. He seemed a lot more reserved in his kicking and running game. It was a fairly even game actually, with that 5 minute period where warriors put on 2 tries being the evntual difference.

Good weekend, with our profit margin nearing the 5 unit mark. May or may not have a play in the tigers dragons game so stay tuned. But overall, happy with the results from this weekend.

NRL 2015 Record: 4 - 5 - 0

+ 4.56 units

[ultrasouth]

Well done on the warriors pick.

[dRavidC]

Well done on the warriors pick.

Thanks mate

[dRavidC]

16/03/15

Round 2

2* Tigers vs Dragons M/L @ 2.58

Apprentice plays master in a potentially entertaining game tonight. Marshall left the tigers for union only to be back in the NRL where the dragons snatched him up. You have Brooks who is a young but emerging talent. Call me crazy but I think the dragons are heavily undervalued tonight. Dragons dominated field position for a lot of match against the storm but their attack was just horrible like barring the one try they never looked like scoring. I'm prepared to call that an "off game." Tigers beat the titans by a point but it was really unconvincing. Yes Dragons are minus Dugan and Creagh but have more than capable replacements (Mata'utia and De Berlin respectively) but I still like their chances tonight. Dragons won't make the same mistake if they get the same amount of possession and domination in field position against the tigers. I see them winning this game outright so ignoring the points and playing it on the straight money line.

[dRavidC]

16/03/15

Round 2

2* Tigers vs Dragons M/L @ 2.58 LOSER

Apprentice plays master in a potentially entertaining game tonight. Marshall left the tigers for union only to be back in the NRL where the dragons snatched him up. You have Brooks who is a young but emerging talent. Call me crazy but I think the dragons are heavily undervalued tonight. Dragons dominated field position for a lot of match against the storm but their attack was just horrible like barring the one try they never looked like scoring. I'm prepared to call that an "off game." Tigers beat the titans by a point but it was really unconvincing. Yes Dragons are minus Dugan and Creagh but have more than capable replacements (Mata'utia and De Berlin respectively) but I still like their chances tonight. Dragons won't make the same mistake if they get the same amount of possession and domination in field position against the tigers. I see them winning this game outright so ignoring the points and playing it on the straight money line.

Silliest and most ambitious bet i've made this season. I will be wary of making dog plays like this in future.

NRL 2015 Record: 4 - 6 - 0

+ 2.56 units

[dRavidC]

20/03/15

Round 3

3* Broncos vs Cowboys UNDER 38 + Bulldogs M/L Parlay @ 2.94x

Both teams have a history of low scoring h2h and have shown this season and have shown defensively what they are capable of this season. Broncos holding sharks to 2 and Cowboys holding Knights to 16. Add in the fact that both attacks are yet to hit their groove and we can see that this game has UNDER written all over it. I have this game capped in the low-mid 30s.

DCE played the best game he possibly could have played against the Storm last week. Hard to see him repeating it here, especially with the advantage that the dogs have the sea eagles in the forward pack. All value taken out of the line (now at 4.5) so playing M/L parlay with my cowboys play.

[dRavidC]

20/03/15

Round 3

3* Broncos vs Cowboys UNDER 38 + Bulldogs M/L Parlay @ 2.94x LOSER

Both teams have a history of low scoring h2h and have shown this season and have shown defensively what they are capable of this season. Broncos holding sharks to 2 and Cowboys holding Knights to 16. Add in the fact that both attacks are yet to hit their groove and we can see that this game has UNDER written all over it. I have this game capped in the low-mid 30s.

DCE played the best game he possibly could have played against the Storm last week. Hard to see him repeating it here, especially with the advantage that the dogs have the sea eagles in the forward pack. All value taken out of the line (now at 4.5) so playing M/L parlay with my cowboys play.

wow @ the broncos

NRL 2015 Record: 4 - 7 - 0

- 0.44 units