Tgm - nrl 2014

[benrama]

Perfect day in Sydney for attacking football, should be a good crowd. I expect Souths and Bulldogs to go over and think Souths at nearly even odds here is a play also despite their outs.

No solid read on the other games, lean towards Manly. NQ are a terrible away team and Manly easily accounted for them by 20 same venue last year.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The reason the total wasn't lower was because of the weather.
It should have been around 36.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

What game are refs watching?
FFS
Forward pass not called, then try given for blatant obstruction
2 refs, 2 touch judges, video refs and they still can't get it right

[micase]

Hard to watch/ bet on games like that, took under 114.5 on all Friday games that cashed by half a point so I wasn't too upset. Not sure how but refereeing seems to be even worse than seasons past.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Geez that's close
I don't mind the 50-50 calls, but it's blatant things they are getting wrong
Clear forward passes, clear obstructions, basic calls they are getting wrong
Classic case of too many cooks spoil the broth - need to go back to 1 ref, 1 video ref and 2 touch judges who control the 10m

[shevabets]

Real barnburner in the Tigers win. Crazy ending (not that handicap bettors had anything to worry about, but I got adventurous so really sweated out that +180 ML)

Let's have a great week TGM!

[Shazzadude]

Be interested to see what you're thinking for the ANZAC games.

I think Warriors and Rabbitohs ATS cash, not sure about the Roosters-Dragons.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Yes, some of my clients and I were on Tigers ML and Tigers ATS. Never say no to some help from the video ref.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Be interested to see what you're thinking for the ANZAC games.

I think Warriors and Rabbitohs ATS cash, not sure about the Roosters-Dragons.

Very bullish on both Warriors and Rabbitohs ATS.
I am also leaning the Dragons as this clash usually throws a spanner in the works and form/table position gets thrown out the window.

Here is some analysis on the Storm/Warriors game:

The Storm have an average 4-3 H2H record and a poor 1-6 ATS record this season.
At home they are a 3-1 H2H but a woeful 0-4 ATS.
The last time they beat an opponent convincingly at AAMI Park was round 24 last season when they pumped a demoralised Eels outfit 64-4.
Since then, they have played there six times for four wins and two losses, but are 0-6 ATS.
Of those wins, the highest winning margin was 8 points against the Knights in round 3.
The rest of the games were won with small margins and at least 2 were lucky wins (Dragons and Panthers).
The Storm aren't the defensive powerhouse they once were.
Their defence is poor and they are conceding very soft tries.

While the Warriors haven't been setting the world on fire, their record against the Storm is good.
They always seem to trouble them and the last 8 games are split 4-4.
They have lost the last 2 in Melbourne, but won the previous 2 including a finals match in 2011.
The only drawback is their 1-3 H2H and ATS record so far this season.
They have failed to cover in all 3 of their away losses.

Coach McFadden is an ex-Raider and an old disciple of Bellamy, so he would want to give a good account of himself against his mentor.
The Storm captain has come out and said they want to concentrate on improving their defence, with coach Bellamy threatening players with the sack if they don't improve.
This should translate into a tighter, lower scoring contest, meaning that the +9.5 on offer should be enough for a cover.

[micase]

Just a weather update in Sydney if anyone is interested, it is pouring down near the football stadium. Some of the slow Euro books are offering 38.5-40.5 O/U for the Roosters/Dragons game. In this weather the under looks very solid. The aussie books have the line set at 34.5 or a juiced 36.5.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sportsbet is still 38...

You can try for a middle

Take Centrebet OVER 34.5
Sportsbet UNDER 38

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 7

#34 Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#35 Tigers +7.5 @ 1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#36 Sea Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 38.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
#37 Dragons/Warriors OVER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week

Bets Placed: 4
Bets Won: 2
Bets Push: 0
Bets Lost: 2
Strike Rate: 50%
Units Wagered: 4
Units Loss: (0.16)
ROI: -4%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 37
Bets Won: 23
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 13
Strike Rate: 62%
Units Wagered: 36
Units Profit: 8.17
ROI: 23%

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 8

#38 Bulldogs/Knights OVER 37.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#39 Cowboys/Eels OVER 38 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 2 UNITS
#40 Rabbitohs ML @ $2 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT ***
#41 Warriors +8 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT ^^^

Notes:

*** Tom is offering a few special promotions for the Broncos/Rabbitohs game. $2 ML for the Rabbitohs is one which I am taking advantage of. Another bet I like is $2 for either fullback to score at ANYTIME during the game - with Barba and Inglis at the back, then surely this should happen. If you can't bet with Tom, I still like Rabbitohs -1.5 which you can get at Palmerbet, Sportingbet or Luxbet or -1 at Pinnacle.

^^^ As you can see from earlier discussion, this was a play for me at +9.5 which I am already on. Although I am loath to take a worse line, I highly doubt the game ends up on a margin of 9. So if they lose by 8, you get a push instead of a win.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Lean Broncs +points but like other plays.

[micase]

Where do I find this $2 favourite for the Bunnies game? That and the collingwood game one I can't seem to find at all on tomwaterhouse.

[beeeej12]

Where do I find this $2 favourite for the Bunnies game? That and the collingwood game one I can't seem to find at all on tomwaterhouse.

Its with sportingbet i know that

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Where do I find this $2 favourite for the Bunnies game? That and the collingwood game one I can't seem to find at all on tomwaterhouse.

This is what I was emailed:

Between 6pm and 7:40pm on Friday, you can double your money on a bounty of Anzac Day footy betting options. Maximum of $50 per market.

Rabbitohs vs Broncos
$2 for Souths to win
$2 for either team's fullback to score a try at any time during the match
$2 for a try to be scored in the first 10 minutes of play
$2 for a penalty goal being converted at any time during the match

Freo vs North Melbourne
$2 for a goal to be the first scoring play
$2 for the team who scores the first goal to win the match
$2 for Matthew Pavlich to kick two or more goals at any time during the match

[Domestic]

Nice start to the weekend mate.

[shevabets]

bang bang

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Wow!
What a finish in the broncos game.
Fullback bet cash - was riding Inglis home hard!
Bunnies cash!
Warriors cash ATS and ML!
Cheers lads

[micase]

Wow!
What a finish in the broncos game.
Fullback bet cash - was riding Inglis home hard!
Bunnies cash!
Warriors cash ATS and ML!
Cheers lads

Those TW bets were golden. I'm a dyed in the wool Roosters fan so it was a little odd clicking Inglis home from 40 out. The penalty to win it got two of the other bets up as well.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Those TW bets were golden. I'm a dyed in the wool Roosters fan so it was a little odd clicking Inglis home from 40 out. The penalty to win it got two of the other bets up as well.

All the $2 bets cashed - pity i only jumped on 2 of them.
Forgot to bet the Pavlich one too - never mind.

Let's hope it rains tries tonight!!!!!!!!!

[angelo63]

Round 8

#38 Bulldogs/Knights OVER 37.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#39 Cowboys/Eels OVER 38 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 2 UNITS
#40 Rabbitohs ML @ $2 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT ***
#41 Warriors +8 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT ^^^

Notes:

*** Tom is offering a few special promotions for the Broncos/Rabbitohs game. $2 ML for the Rabbitohs is one which I am taking advantage of. Another bet I like is $2 for either fullback to score at ANYTIME during the game - with Barba and Inglis at the back, then surely this should happen. If you can't bet with Tom, I still like Rabbitohs -1.5 which you can get at Palmerbet, Sportingbet or Luxbet or -1 at Pinnacle.

^^^ As you can see from earlier discussion, this was a play for me at +9.5 which I am already on. Although I am loath to take a worse line, I highly doubt the game ends up on a margin of 9. So if they lose by 8, you get a push instead of a win.

TGm

Like Moses leading the homeless jews across the desert in search for a new holy and you have led us the Sandoiites away from the Abyss of the once holy thread of Sando's All Sports to the new fountain of wealth of theTGM NRL 2014 thread.

Man your on the ball most weeks thisa week you hav ekilled it already 4 units already and maybe 5 .


I heard somewhere here you work for a bookie in Sydney and have inside knowledge of the NRL's inner sanctum, well thanks for sharing buddy I an mamy many more here love your work and are very happy to know you as the premier NRL Capper in the WORLD

CAsh CAsh Cash

[Tim Gerry Mander]

TGm

Like Moses leading the homeless jews across the desert in search for a new holy and you have led us the Sandoiites away from the Abyss of the once holy thread of Sando's All Sports to the new fountain of wealth of theTGM NRL 2014 thread.

Man your on the ball most weeks thisa week you hav ekilled it already 4 units already and maybe 5 .


I heard somewhere here you work for a bookie in Sydney and have inside knowledge of the NRL's inner sanctum, well thanks for sharing buddy I an mamy many more here love your work and are very happy to know you as the premier NRL Capper in the WORLD

CAsh CAsh Cash

Thanks for your kind words Angelo.
Can't say too much on a public forum although i've parted my fair share of "red seas".....
Let's hope this thread continues to produce an endless supply of bread loaves and fish.

[shevabets]

Manly up 42-4 at halftime...

What do you think happens after a half like this? Low scoring brawl or?...

[elchucaro]

very good week

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sheva, sorry I just saw your post.

Best to stay away from Raiders games for the time being.

very good week

I thought you disappeared my friend.

Time for a week off to recharge with rep football this weekend.

A very interesting start to the season to say the least!

[elchucaro]

Sheva, sorry I just saw your post.

Best to stay away from Raiders games for the time being.


I thought you disappeared my friend.

Time for a week off to recharge with rep football this weekend.

A very interesting start to the season to say the least!

haha.. i read and follow you always...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Let's continue where we left off, shall we?

Round 9

# 42 - Titans +6.5 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
# 43 - Tigers +12 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT
# 44 - Warriors/Raiders OVER 40.5 @ $1.91 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT

[elchucaro]

# 44 - Warriors/Raiders OVER 40.5
half time 24-6 !! come on !!

[yippa82]

Tgm with carney out and Lewis in and fifita looking to prove the selectors wrong do you think they will cover against the eels?

I personally think hunk they won't have the fire power to compete

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Will update results soon - plays below...

Round 10

# 45 - Cowboys ML @ $2.10 (TAB) - 2 UNITS
# 46 - Raiders/Panthers UNDER 44.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT

might have more tomorrow....

[elchucaro]

cowboys win!!! thank you sir

[snufflyjoe]

thanks for the Cowboys bet man. the line is now 46 points for the raiders/Panthers game at sportsbet

[Tim Gerry Mander]

thanks for the Cowboys bet man. the line is now 46 points for the raiders/Panthers game at sportsbet

My pleasure buddy...

Pity about yesterday's game - panthers defence didn't show up.

Some big bets on the Knights tonight:

$8K ML@ $4.75
$25K ATS(+12.5) @ $2