Oz's all round soccer plays

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  • tez32
    SBR Rookie
    • 05-28-12
    • 4

    #36
    Super work mate. Your hard work finally getting some recognition!
    Comment
    • OZnBa Fan
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-24-12
      • 697

      #37
      Originally posted by OZnBa Fan
      Central Coast vs Adelaide United

      Central Coast ML $1.77 (centrebet) 3*


      Big play here for tomorrow's game and I want to jump in early as I don't think this price will stay for much longer. Will try and get analysis up at some stage tomorrow.

      Just to note Bet365 has this market at $1.72, sportsbet $1.73 and luxbet $1.70
      I'm going to start by saying that hope you jumped on early cause the mariners have been crunched into as short as $1.57 at bet365, the main reason for this is injuries to key personal to the Adelaide squad. Its hard for be specific as there is not a lot of details I can find but from what I have heard is that Adelaide's pre season is under some cloud due to several players suffering soft tissue injuries, Adelaide United boss Josep Gombau believes that this is due to the long pre season but from what was mentioned last night on fox football is that Josep has brought his own fitness guys to the club and some of the running training that was implemented might be the reason to there injuries. They will be missing the main striker Jeronimo Neumann who has scored 3 goals in there opening 2 games, they will also be without Marcelo Carrusca, Cassio and Bruce Djite.

      I don't see how Adelaide can score goals today away from home and against the reining champs who they have lost to for 8 consecutive games. Central Coast have only managed to get a 1pt from each of there opening 2 games and I put them in the same category as the victory last night, a quality side who not had the start they would liked and are in a good position to get there first win, they are a clear contender for the title and I personally don't see them not winning 1 of there opening 3 games

      Rolling for 3*
      Comment
      • MatI
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-17-11
        • 5200

        #38
        Oz, were have you seen that Jeronimo is out? I am under the impression he is starting.
        Comment
        • MatI
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-17-11
          • 5200

          #39
          Just found it on the twitter. Thanks for the heads up Oz, wouldnt have noticed that otherwise.
          Comment
          • OZnBa Fan
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 05-24-12
            • 697

            #40
            Yeh mate he has done an abductor
            Comment
            • OZnBa Fan
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-24-12
              • 697

              #41
              Saturday Soccer Bets

              English Championship

              Reading vs Millwall - Reading ML 2*

              Reading are unbeaten this season at home and they possess a home record of 4-2-0 with 12 goals scored and only conceding 5.
              Millwall have struggled away from home this season, there record stands at 1-2-3 with 6 goals scored and 15 conceded.

              Millwall avg 2.5 goals conceded per match away from home and they come up against a real contender in the championship in Reading who avg 2 goals a game at home.

              Reading have to much fire power here against a lowly team who leak goals on there travels


              Blackpool vs Blackburn - First team to score Blackpool 1.5*

              Blackpool have been very good to me lately with this market, they have been the first team to score in 10/12 matches overall, the games they didn't score first were 0-0 draws. At home they have scored first in 5 out of there 6 games.. Hard not to keep rolling with them?

              Blackburn have conceded the first goal in 7 out of there 12 matches overall and 4 out of there 6 away games

              My advice to anyone that tails this play is to put a small wager to cover your stake on the No goals to be scored market which is $9 at bet365. As an example if you put $10 on Blackpool to score 1st put $1.10 on no goals to be scored so if the game ends 0-0 at least you get your money back.
              Note: 2 out of the last 3 Blackpool games have ended 0-0

              Derby vs Birmingham City - Derby 1*

              How can you not take Derby in this position? Birmingham suck at the moment they have suffered 5 straight defeats on there travels with there only other away game being a win against lowly Yeovil back at the start of August.

              Since Derby changed managers nearly a month ago they have taken 7pts from 9 available and I believe they can keep rolling and try and push themselves into a playoff position.


              Yeovil vs Nottingham Forest - Nottingham Forest ML 1*

              Yeovil have really struggled to adapt to life in the championship after being promoted from league 1 last season. They have a woeful overall record with 1-3-8 with 6 goals scored and 18 conceded. Home form is crucial when you are trying to avoid relegation in any competition and for Yeovil there home form has been less then then impressive with a record of 0-1-5 with 1 goal scored and 7 conceded

              Nottingham Forrest sit 4th in the championship with only 1 loss for the season. Forrest have scored in every game they have played this season and that has to be a concern for Yeovil who have gone onto lose every game at home when conceding first.

              English Premier League

              Southampton vs Fulham - Under 2.5 match goals 1*

              Simple, Southampton have not played in a premier league game this season that has featured more then 3 goals and they possess 1 of the best defensive records with only conceding 3 goals for season thus far.

              Fulham had only scored 1 goal on there travels prior to there 4-1 thrashing of crystal Palace who leak goals like a champ, before that game they had not played in an away game that had featured 3 or more goals

              $2.00 for under 2.5 goals is overs for mine and worth 1*

              Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - Arsenal -1.5 1.5*

              Not a lot to say here but Arsenal will be very keen to bounce back after a disappointing loss midweek to Dortmund in the champions league and they will also want to retain top spot with tough games in the premiership ahead.

              Palace are in disarray at the moment with the club and the manager parting ways after the 4-1 loss to Fulham on Monday night.
              Palace have only managed 1 win this year losing every other game.



              May have some more plays later
              Comment
              • OZnBa Fan
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 05-24-12
                • 697

                #42
                Adding

                Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen -1 1*

                Christiano Ronaldo to score any time 1* $2.37


                Parlay

                Arsenal ML
                Bayer Leverkusen ML

                $2.09 2*
                Comment
                • OZnBa Fan
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 05-24-12
                  • 697

                  #43
                  Originally posted by OZnBa Fan
                  Central Coast ML 3*

                  I'm going to start by saying that hope you jumped on early cause the mariners have been crunched into as short as $1.57 at bet365, the main reason for this is injuries to key personal to the Adelaide squad. Its hard for be specific as there is not a lot of details I can find but from what I have heard is that Adelaide's pre season is under some cloud due to several players suffering soft tissue injuries, Adelaide United boss Josep Gombau believes that this is due to the long pre season but from what was mentioned last night on fox football is that Josep has brought his own fitness guys to the club and some of the running training that was implemented might be the reason to there injuries. They will be missing the main striker Jeronimo Neumann who has scored 3 goals in there opening 2 games, they will also be without Marcelo Carrusca, Cassio and Bruce Djite.

                  I don't see how Adelaide can score goals today away from home and against the reining champs who they have lost to for 8 consecutive games. Central Coast have only managed to get a 1pt from each of there opening 2 games and I put them in the same category as the victory last night, a quality side who not had the start they would liked and are in a good position to get there first win, they are a clear contender for the title and I personally don't see them not winning 1 of there opening 3 games

                  Rolling for 3*
                  Winner Winner

                  Todays record

                  1-0 +2.31

                  Overall record

                  22-9 +20.21

                  Big night ahead as I have over 10 units on the line and if I can have another positive night ill be wrapped

                  Good luck
                  Comment
                  • lordkai35
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 07-20-13
                    • 202

                    #44
                    love your work man, i really appreciate aussies sharing tips about sports outside australia/nz. keep it up and good luck !!
                    Comment
                    • OZnBa Fan
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 05-24-12
                      • 697

                      #45
                      Originally posted by lordkai35
                      love your work man, i really appreciate aussies sharing tips about sports outside australia/nz. keep it up and good luck !!
                      cheers pal
                      Comment
                      • OZnBa Fan
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 05-24-12
                        • 697

                        #46
                        adding some more plays

                        Hannover 96 vs Hoffenheim - Hannover ML 1.5*


                        Parlay

                        Marseille vs Reims under 3.5 match goals
                        Malaga vs Celta Vigo under 3.5 match goals
                        Arsenal ML

                        $2.16 2*


                        Comment
                        • OZnBa Fan
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 05-24-12
                          • 697

                          #47
                          Reading vs Millwall - Reading ML 2* LOSS

                          Reading concede a penalty to a 10 men millwall in the 92nd minute unlucky?

                          Blackpool vs Blackburn - First team to score Blackpool 1.5* WIN

                          Love this bet week in week out and will continue to take it

                          Derby vs Birmingham City - Derby 1* LOSS

                          Derby just not good enough

                          Yeovil vs Nottingham Forest - Nottingham Forest ML 1* LOSS

                          No excuses here Forest were poor and allowed Yeovil there first home win of the season, goes to show the unpredictability of the championship

                          Southampton vs Fulham - Under 2.5 match goals 1* WIN

                          Really liked this play and a bit disappointed I didn't have at least another unit on as all stats CLEARLY pointed to the under

                          Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - Arsenal -1.5 1.5* WIN

                          Probably got lucky here as Arsenal went down to 10 men but quality prevailed?

                          Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen -1 1* PUSH

                          Christiano Ronaldo to score any time 1* $2.37 LOSS


                          This was a market that had to be taken in my opinion, he had scored in there last 6 El classcios at the nou camp and $2.37 is overs

                          Arsenal ML
                          Bayer Leverkusen ML WIN
                          $2.09 2*


                          Hannover 96 vs Hoffenheim - Hannover ML 1.5* LOSS

                          Hannover go down to 10 men inside the first 10 minutes... No channce


                          Parlay
                          Marseille vs Reims under 3.5 match goals
                          Malaga vs Celta Vigo under 3.5 match goals LOSS
                          Arsenal ML

                          $2.16 2*


                          Last nights games

                          4-6-1 -2.49 units

                          Overall record

                          26-15-1 +17.72



                          Dissappointing night in the end and there is no excuses for a negative resukt but i plan on getting back to winning ways asap. I opened this thread exactly 7 days ago and if you said to me would you take being up +17 units after a week i wouldnt even hesitate with a answer

                          Plays for tonight will be up later
                          Comment
                          • OZnBa Fan
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 05-24-12
                            • 697

                            #48
                            Got a big play lined up for tonight gents just trying to get a little more info on team news will post soon
                            Comment
                            • OZnBa Fan
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 05-24-12
                              • 697

                              #49
                              Play 1 for super sunday

                              Parlay

                              Tottenham ML
                              Juventus ML

                              $1.72 (centrebet) 4*

                              I don't think I could be confident on a play then these 2 tonight.

                              No time for a write up sorry working on other plays
                              Comment
                              • Cobra Kai
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 06-17-10
                                • 265

                                #50
                                Tailing for 4 units, let's hope there's no repeat of last week from Juventus!
                                Comment
                                • OZnBa Fan
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 05-24-12
                                  • 697

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Cobra Kai
                                  Tailing for 4 units, let's hope there's no repeat of last week from Juventus!
                                  2 resaons why this wont happened..

                                  1) Genoa form against teams in the top half of Serie A stinks

                                  2) Juventus are at home
                                  Comment
                                  • OZnBa Fan
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 05-24-12
                                    • 697

                                    #52
                                    Adding

                                    Parma vs AC Milan - over 2.5 goals 1*

                                    75% of Parma's home games go over 2.5 goals, 100% of AC Milans away games go over 2.5


                                    Chelsea vs
                                    Manchester City - Under 2.5 goals 1*

                                    I'm basing this pick more on knowledge then stats, yes I know that City like to leak goals away from home but this is a huge game and neither team is going to want to lose this. I think both teams will sit deep and with the way
                                    Mourinho likes to play he's happy to make this an ugly game similar to the 0-0 result against Manchester United earlier in the season.
                                    Comment
                                    • OZnBa Fan
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 05-24-12
                                      • 697

                                      #53
                                      Value Parlay

                                      Napoli ML
                                      Catania ML
                                      Fiorentina ML
                                      Parma, AC Milan BTTS
                                      Roma draw no bet

                                      $15.73 0.25*
                                      Comment
                                      • OZnBa Fan
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 05-24-12
                                        • 697

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by OZnBa Fan
                                        Value Parlay

                                        Napoli ML
                                        Catania ML
                                        Fiorentina ML
                                        Parma, AC Milan BTTS
                                        Roma draw no bet

                                        $15.73 0.25*
                                        sorry guys I just relized Napoli was the early game, I did place this bet about an hour ago but only posted now.. I still believe the other bets are worth a shout
                                        Comment
                                        • OZnBa Fan
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 05-24-12
                                          • 697

                                          #55
                                          Parlay
                                          Tottenham ML WIN
                                          Juventus ML
                                          $1.72 (centrebet) 4*



                                          Parma vs AC Milan - over 2.5 goals 1
                                          * WIN

                                          Chelsea vs
                                          Manchester City - Under 2.5 goals 1* LOSS

                                          please tell me some1 else saw what joe hart did in the last minute to cost us this bet?


                                          Napoli ML
                                          Catania ML
                                          Fiorentina ML
                                          Parma, AC Milan BTTS LOSS
                                          Roma draw no bet

                                          This would have been a nice collect just missing out on Catania as they drew 0-0

                                          last nights record

                                          2-2 +2.18units

                                          Overall record

                                          28-17-1 +19.9 units

                                          I vowed to get back to winning ways and we did.

                                          I have a nice play for the capital cup that I will post later tonight as we need to get in early as odds will shorten but I will post later
                                          Comment
                                          • OZnBa Fan
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 05-24-12
                                            • 697

                                            #56
                                            Id love to get everyone's opinion on Joe Hart?

                                            What has happened to this man, in my opinion 18 or so months ago I rated him as a top 5 goalkeeper in the world and now he just has no confidence, hes been caught in no mans land multiple times this season and would be the soul reason why Manchester City have dropped many points.

                                            I truly believe he is under pressure right now to keep his spot in the starting 11 at Manchester City and with Brazil just around the corner there would be some serious doubt about him retaining the number 1 spot for England.
                                            Comment
                                            • sando
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-30-12
                                              • 3723

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by OZnBa Fan

                                              Parma vs AC Milan - over 2.5 goals 1*

                                              75% of Parma's home games go over 2.5 goals, 100% of AC Milans away games go over 2.5
                                              Went pretty big on this. Brilliant work.
                                              Comment
                                              • OZnBa Fan
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 05-24-12
                                                • 697

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by sando
                                                Went pretty big on this. Brilliant work.
                                                Thanks mate, I was a little hesitant to have more on it myself as I had a 4 unit play pending.

                                                I also tailed on PNG line and the over in the NZ game so thank you sir
                                                Comment
                                                • Donkey
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 05-22-12
                                                  • 151

                                                  #59
                                                  nice record might have to start tailing
                                                  Comment
                                                  • sando
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-30-12
                                                    • 3723

                                                    #60
                                                    It's funny how in the Sub-forums people are mainly out to learn/share plays/help each other out, etc (particularly more sports, MMA, tennis and NASCAR) however if you spend too much time in PT - it's just a fukcing jungle over there where most are simply looking to bury others...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • OZnBa Fan
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 05-24-12
                                                      • 697

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by sando
                                                      It's funny how in the Sub-forums people are mainly out to learn/share plays/help each other out, etc (particularly more sports, MMA, tennis and NASCAR) however if you spend too much time in PT - it's just a fukcing jungle over there where most are simply looking to bury others...
                                                      Thats the exact reason why I didn't post my thread in the soccer forum, all the lads floating around in the more sports section are decent guys/tipsters. I'd rather only have the occasional comment then have every man and there dog talking smack
                                                      Comment
                                                      • aussieH
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-04-11
                                                        • 1188

                                                        #62
                                                        Great work and picked up a couple of units on your play. Thanks for the plays. Keep it chilled in here is the best way brother.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #63
                                                          the less mainstream (from the standpoint of a USA-resident pimply-faced teenager) the betting market is...the more civilized and helpful the posts become...

                                                          this is why--next to PT (=ABC=Adolescent-Brain-Central)--the most-annoying/lowest-IQ places on here currently are, in general, those earmarked for NBA and NFL "discussion"...even MMA--once an intelligent place--is increasingly beset by pedantic dick-wagging, so i now read but never post over there

                                                          civilized adults are wise to confine their posts dealing with all sports (including mainstream sports that technically belong elsewhere) to rooms such as this where the kiddies seldom go...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • OZnBa Fan
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 05-24-12
                                                            • 697

                                                            #64
                                                            Capital One Cup

                                                            Arsenal Vs Chelsea - Chelsea Asian handicap 0 1.5*

                                                            It has been well documented that both sides will stringing the changes for this clash. Chelsea have a clear advantage over the gunners when it comes to depth between the two squads.
                                                            Being a massive Arsenal fan and knowing how Arsene Wenger likes to treat these games I have no doubt that he will be resting key players for this match, and for me this puts Chelsea in the box seat as Arsenal lack depth with still quite a few injurys to key players.

                                                            From what I am reading the likes of Mata, E'to, and Luiz will be in the starting 11 for Chelsea and i believe there "2nd string squad" that they will play tomorrow will be enough quality to trouble any team whether its the League Cup or not.

                                                            Arsenal haven't won any silverware for near on a decade and as it is important for the supporters to demand success Arsene Wenger will know that there is more important things ahead such as game against Liverpool, Bourissia Dortmund (away) and Manchester United (away) all within the space of 11 days.

                                                            I'm pretty confident the side Arsenal put up will be significantly weaker then there opponents and I want a piece of the odds that are currently available. Id be surprised once the teams sheets are released that Chelsea are not favourites and the only way we can lose this bet if the Gunners manage to get the win in regular time
                                                            Comment
                                                            • OZnBa Fan
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 05-24-12
                                                              • 697

                                                              #65
                                                              Adding

                                                              Celta Vigo vs FC Barcelona - Barcelona -1.5 2*
                                                              Comment
                                                              • lordkai35
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 07-20-13
                                                                • 202

                                                                #66
                                                                love the chelsea play but iam kinda scared about barcelona play. Celta vigo won a 5-0 game away. Even if their opponents that game was lowly ranked that was very strong performance. Barcelona managed to somehow draw in their last away game against 2nd lowest ranked osauana. Maybe they rested players if i missed that?

                                                                also' i like stoke to win against birmingham. Stoke take these games srsly and they play their full strength squad. Their last game against Man U in EPL they lead for the most of the game until individual brilliance crushed them. Birmingham are coming 3rd last in their league. Stoke should get the win here. thoughts?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • OZnBa Fan
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 05-24-12
                                                                  • 697

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by lordkai35
                                                                  love the chelsea play but iam kinda scared about barcelona play. Celta vigo won a 5-0 game away. Even if their opponents that game was lowly ranked that was very strong performance. Barcelona managed to somehow draw in their last away game against 2nd lowest ranked osauana. Maybe they rested players if i missed that?

                                                                  also' i like stoke to win against birmingham. Stoke take these games srsly and they play their full strength squad. Their last game against Man U in EPL they lead for the most of the game until individual brilliance crushed them. Birmingham are coming 3rd last in their league. Stoke should get the win here. thoughts?
                                                                  Firstly, Celta did have a good win on the weekend but Malaga are really struggling at the moment and they had it coming, also Celta had lost 4 out of there last 5 in the la liga and were on the bounce. 1 thing that I have realized with football is that when teams are on a bad run they usually put in a performance that will surprise you to get the pressure off not unless your a crap team eg: Crystal Palace

                                                                  Ill give you and example. this morning Getafe hosted Athletic Bilbao, Getafe had won 4 in a row prior to this morning's game and Athletic Bilbao had lost 3 in a row on the road, everything trend wise was pointing to a home win and based on form, but with trends in football such as long losing streaks or not scoring for multiple games in a row those trends get broken more often then not and in my opinion if you have lost 4 in a row or 5 in a row I believe the longer the streak continues the more chance you are of winning then losing. and eventually that trend has to be broken. Atheltic bilbao are not a Crystal Palace they are half decent side that's not going to go on a 4 or 5 losing streak away from home. Its all about postion?

                                                                  Next point, we are talking about a top 3 team in Europe In Barcelona, they have Athletico Madrid breathing down there necks in the standings and with Celta winning 5-0 on the weekend Barcelona now know they need to take this game more seriously then before..... Position and mindset!

                                                                  Messi did not play in that 0-0 draw as he was injured, he didn't score on the weekend and 1 thing I can tell you is that he does not stay quiet 2 games in a row, ill be surprised if he doesn't score at a bare minimum and he is very capable of scoring a double if not more. Celta Vigo are a team that will be fighting to stay in the la liga in my opnion and I see the reigning champs winning this 3-1 or 4-1


                                                                  Onto Stoke, teams like Stoke and West Ham who are playing away to teams in lower divisions are 50/50 games, these lower ranked teams thrive off playing premier league teams in these competitions there all about the upsets and I am expecting Birmingham to throw everything at them tomorrow.

                                                                  My advice to you would be don't go placing any wager on these mediocre premier league teams without seeing the teams sheets, Stoke's main focus is to survive in the premier league and they wont be risking any players that they don't need to in the lowest competition in England such as the League Cup. These premier league sides tend to take it more seriously when they get to the quarter finals or the semis. Don't get me wrong Stoke should be winning and probably will win but there is a lot of upsets in this competition as its no FA Cup and the upsets usually happen more often then not with the smaller premier league sides


                                                                  Good Luck my man
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • OZnBa Fan
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 05-24-12
                                                                    • 697

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Might be adding another play
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • OZnBa Fan
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 05-24-12
                                                                      • 697

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Live bet

                                                                      stoke -0.5, -1.0 Asian handicap 1.5*

                                                                      Birmingham just recied a red card before the break and are down to 10 men
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • OZnBa Fan
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 05-24-12
                                                                        • 697

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by OZnBa Fan
                                                                        Capital One Cup

                                                                        Arsenal Vs Chelsea - Chelsea Asian handicap 0 1.5*

                                                                        It has been well documented that both sides will stringing the changes for this clash. Chelsea have a clear advantage over the gunners when it comes to depth between the two squads.
                                                                        Being a massive Arsenal fan and knowing how Arsene Wenger likes to treat these games I have no doubt that he will be resting key players for this match, and for me this puts Chelsea in the box seat as Arsenal lack depth with still quite a few injurys to key players.

                                                                        From what I am reading the likes of Mata, E'to, and Luiz will be in the starting 11 for Chelsea and i believe there "2nd string squad" that they will play tomorrow will be enough quality to trouble any team whether its the League Cup or not.

                                                                        Arsenal haven't won any silverware for near on a decade and as it is important for the supporters to demand success Arsene Wenger will know that there is more important things ahead such as game against Liverpool, Bourissia Dortmund (away) and Manchester United (away) all within the space of 11 days.

                                                                        I'm pretty confident the side Arsenal put up will be significantly weaker then there opponents and I want a piece of the odds that are currently available. Id be surprised once the teams sheets are released that Chelsea are not favourites and the only way we can lose this bet if the Gunners manage to get the win in regular time
                                                                        Cash it, as expected to depth of the Chelsea's squad prevails over a weakend Arsenal team that has bigger fish to fry.... Easy money
                                                                        Comment
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