Lets start this away from the shills and any discussion involving shills and touts. Just out of interest from those who have seen his FB, is betjam an indigenous fellow? That would probably be my guess. I'm hoping he also pays tax on that $1 a game. I hate touts so much that an ATO tip off and full audit may be in order. I hope her books all match up!
Anyway, onto the point. Either post your plays in here or plays that you think you have value. Lets discuss. I am still waiting to see a few mock brownlows before locking too much in.
Anyway, my thoughts, on AFL teams props (which is all I've really looked at), Dangerfield should not be $1.01, which is an implied probably of $99.01% I definitely intend on laying that on betfair when there is some liquidity in the market. I think Sloane (currently $9) is massive value, which I've hit small, but waiting to lay Dangerfield.
Similarly, I don't think Boak should be at $1.11. Ebert came in and won at long odds last year, but I like either Hartlett or Wingard (no bet yet). Wingard and Hartlett both get noticed because of how they play. Probably more so Wingard, but Hartlett gets a lot more of the ball. Again, I've laid Wingard small but waiting for a betfair market with some liquidity.
Cartlon team bet is interesting. Mclean polls ok traditionally, but I don't think he deserves to be a $2.50 favourite. Murphys year wasn't great either. While he was inconsistent, I think Walker will pick up enough votes at $12. He may not win, but if you want to play for value, do it. That being said, playing for value on an annual event is not always the best idea.
You gotta remember with a lot of these mid-ladder teams, 10-13 points can often win it, which is only 4 very, very good games.
Back with some plays on the group markets soon enough, but expecting insight from the guys with AFL threads here!
Finally, there is definitely value in this market I think, but I haven't gone through it in any detail yet. One of those guys vs Ablett is massive value. Possibly betting Danger at $13 and Sloane for Crows bet may work out well.
Anyway, onto the point. Either post your plays in here or plays that you think you have value. Lets discuss. I am still waiting to see a few mock brownlows before locking too much in.
Anyway, my thoughts, on AFL teams props (which is all I've really looked at), Dangerfield should not be $1.01, which is an implied probably of $99.01% I definitely intend on laying that on betfair when there is some liquidity in the market. I think Sloane (currently $9) is massive value, which I've hit small, but waiting to lay Dangerfield.
Similarly, I don't think Boak should be at $1.11. Ebert came in and won at long odds last year, but I like either Hartlett or Wingard (no bet yet). Wingard and Hartlett both get noticed because of how they play. Probably more so Wingard, but Hartlett gets a lot more of the ball. Again, I've laid Wingard small but waiting for a betfair market with some liquidity.
Cartlon team bet is interesting. Mclean polls ok traditionally, but I don't think he deserves to be a $2.50 favourite. Murphys year wasn't great either. While he was inconsistent, I think Walker will pick up enough votes at $12. He may not win, but if you want to play for value, do it. That being said, playing for value on an annual event is not always the best idea.
You gotta remember with a lot of these mid-ladder teams, 10-13 points can often win it, which is only 4 very, very good games.
Back with some plays on the group markets soon enough, but expecting insight from the guys with AFL threads here!
Finally, there is definitely value in this market I think, but I haven't gone through it in any detail yet. One of those guys vs Ablett is massive value. Possibly betting Danger at $13 and Sloane for Crows bet may work out well.
- Gary Ablett - Scratch13.00Joel Selwood +3.55.50Scott Pendlebury +5.05.50
Dane Swan +5.58.50
Sam Mitchell +6.510.00Patrick Dangerfield +6.513.00
Michael Barlow +8.013.00Kieren Jack +8.512.00Ryan Griffen +8.513.00
Dan Hannebery +9.013.00Jobe Watson +9.512.00Travis Boak +9.511.00
Jarryd Roughead +10.013.00Trent Cotchin +10.010.00
Forwards do get overlooked a lot in brownlow voting though, so not a bad play. Not a bad play when 6 votes should be enough to win it and he's basically guaranteed 3 in that one. Cameron probably gets 2 in that game and he might get another 2 in that game he kicked 7 against the Pies (out of 10 goals). 
