FD´s NRL and other rugby picks

[Foxy Dread]

Hello, I have a model for Rugby that is quite promising, I´ve made money using it in UK rugby for three years now. I´ve used it in the NRL with mixed results in the past, it´s okay at the start of the season and the end of the season, but it falls apart with the start of Origin.

Anyway, it´s going well this year, but now i´ll start putting the selections here, these assume that there is no team news negative to recent weeks (NRL only, i´m UK based to take european team news into account), so please bear that in mind, and if you know there is new team news, please let me and other sbr users know.

This weekends picks
I´m too late to tip up the Roosters but worth pointing out that my model suggests they are upto Grand Final standard at this moment in time.

Sea Eagles -2 at 1.91 Sportingbet, and also Sea Eagles to win the game at 1.73, purely on the figures they are a good few points clear of the Rabbitohs.

Cowboys -10 at 1.91 with just about everyone, it´s not that the Cowboys are that good, just that the Raiders are that bad.

Wests Tigers +8 at 1.91 vs the Broncos

Panthers +2 at Ladbrokes 2.0, and Panthers to win at 2.38 Spreadex or 2.25 at Ladbrokes.

I´m sorry there is not a lot of analysis, but these are from a mathematical model, so there´s not a lot to add.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Welcome to the forum and good luck with your model.

Where are you getting Tigers +8 though?
All Aussie books are at 5.5 or thereabouts.

I like the Tigers with the start and included this as one of my plays this week.
My only concern is their halves with Braith Anasta now joining Benji on the injured list.
Some may say that no Anasta is a blessing, but he does bring experience in the halves, which is something the Tigers were lacking early on in the season.
Curtis Sironen does look a handy replacement though and the Broncos haven't looked as sharp this season.

The western derby is a coin flip for mine. Both teams have been woeful at times this season.
The Eels somehow managed to lose their last game after being up by 14 points at one stage.
The Panthers just lost to the Knights in what many called the most boring game of league in years.
The Eels have shown they can bounce back after a bad loss - the Panthers are struggling after a decent start to the year.
Wouldn't be surprised to see one or the other win by 30.


I have to agree that the Roosters look to have turned the corner and are now definitely a top 4 team.
Their defence is rock solid and they are managing to punch through the advantage line regularly and get away quality offloads for second phase play.
Any team that can score points in quick succession will be thereabouts at season's end.

Manly are going great after plenty of people expected them to tail off after losing some key players, but they continue to impress.
This game is going to be tight, but I think the Rabbitohs forwards are just a tad better and getting 3.5 start is not bad for mine in a game of two evenly matched teams.
This has golden point extra time written all over it.

[Foxy Dread]

Skybet and Stan James are still +8 Wests. Earlier in the week more of the UK books were going +8, why so much of a difference from Oz I´m not so sure, it´s not normally the case.

Thanks for the input, my model goes ok until Origin usually, this year I´ll try and be more creative and add a bit of art at that point.

For UK prices, available from Tuesday www.oddschecker.co.uk, if that contravenes the board´s policy on links my apologies in advance.

[Foxy Dread]

The Rabbitohs game was a belter, the Burgess boys, how does that happen? England don´t look bad in the forwards right now.

[Foxy Dread]

Swinton are getting +6 at Barrow, in the English Championship RL, 1.91 with Bet Victor, well worth a bet.

This is from the model but some form to back it up, Swinton are 1/4 away from home, but there last two away games have seen decent shows at Featherstone and Halifax, these are the best two teams in the competition. They´ve won two of their last three, the loss against another of the stronger sides Leigh. Barrow are 2/5 at home, last time out they beat York who just don´t travel well. I will be having a nibble on Swinton on the outright, on the handicap they look good.

[Foxy Dread]

A small profit on the NRL picks last week, and a loss on the English Championship bet.

Round 8 NRL

Broncos v Rabbitohs Broncos to win 3.0, and Broncos +6
No bet but Wests are tempting at +14 away to Bulldogs.
Eels +8 at home to the Cowboys
Titans +6 away to the Warriors
Sharks +10 at the Knights
Dragons +6 at home to the Sea Eagles.

Nothing to add, all generated by the numbers, I have pulled the Wests selection because of their injury situation.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

You may want to do the same with the Broncos - they've lost Hodges and McGuire.

Agree with you on most, except Titans and Dragons.

[Foxy Dread]

Thanks for the comments, they are most welcome, it´s a pity I didn´t heed your words re the Broncos.

I fancy two in the Speedway tonight, it´s the Swedish Grand Prix, in heat 8 Ladbrokes go 3.4 against Emil Sayfutdinov, he´s as short as 2.25 elsewhere. Jaroslav Hampel is 3.0 again with Ladbrokes for heat 14. I´d be very disappointed if one of them didn´t come home to make me at least a unit´s profit.

[Foxy Dread]

Hampel won heat 14 so a profit on the two bets of 1pt. Emil S was second in heat 8. Ladbrokes seemed to ignore the track bias and these were two riders in advantageous gate 1.

[Foxy Dread]

A loss on the NRL of .27 pts, but a 1pt profit on the speedway, so a small overall profit on the week.

I´ll put full figures up after this round.

NRL Round 9

Again not much reasoning all generated by my model.

Cowboys +10 at a general 1.91 in europe
Wests Tigers +6 at 2.0 with Spreadex
Knights +4 at 2.0 with a couple of firms including Bet365.

I won´t put this one up yet, perhaps Tim would be kind enough to add something here, I assume Manly are fielding a very weak team this week if the line is anything to go on. As you might have guessed I´m considering putting up Manly.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

A loss on the NRL of .27 pts, but a 1pt profit on the speedway, so a small overall profit on the week.

I´ll put full figures up after this round.

NRL Round 9

Again not much reasoning all generated by my model.

Cowboys +10 at a general 1.91 in europe
Wests Tigers +6 at 2.0 with Spreadex
Knights +4 at 2.0 with a couple of firms including Bet365.

I won´t put this one up yet, perhaps Tim would be kind enough to add something here, I assume Manly are fielding a very weak team this week if the line is anything to go on. As you might have guessed I´m considering putting up Manly.

Mate, I like all those bets and have played the first two.

Manly have lost Brett Stewart to go with the suspension of Fa'aoso from last week.

I believe Matai is back, but losing Stewart is a massive blow - his try scoring record at Brookvale is phenomenal.
I think Easts will get there first real test of the season and this game is wide open.

From what I hear, the Roosters were ordinary last week against the Panthers and the scoreline flattered them immensely.
I liked Manly with the start, but with no Stewart, it becomes a NO PLAY.

[Foxy Dread]

Nothing for me this week, life getting in the way for the moment.

[Foxy Dread]

Again nothing for me on the NRL this week, again life is getting in the way.

Super League in the UK, there are two that take my eye, London getting 18 from Catalan Dragons is available at 2.0 with Sportingbet, and Wigan -8 versus Leeds is available at 1.91 with Stan James and a couple of others.

Catalans don´t travel well, it´s on at a neutral venue, London bombed out last week and will be fired up for this one.

Wigan are the best team in the competition but Leeds have beat them in their last two meetings, both were semi-finals so Wigan will be hurting and have a point to prove, Leeds are a bit off the pace at the moment and are ripe for the taking with two key forwards out.