hey BG just wanted to pop in and say hello im gearing up for saratoga and delmar will be up at saratoga most of the meet
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Comment -
Yeah bro, I saw your countdown on your thread!!! Glad you are excited. Been working my ass off on these horses and they have been paying off this year so far.
If you get a chance, check out my HBD thread I made Saturday. A little project I have been working on, all based on an idea I had back playing those contests with you and ultimate selector a couple years ago.
Hope all is well man!Comment -
Race 1
4 Fiddlers Patriot
7 Bridgetown
2 Great Mills
9 Head Heart Hoof
Race 2
6 Show Some Magic
2 Well Lawyered
8 Holden On
11 Volastic
Race 3
8 Cinematize
7 Pennymine (20-1)
5 Clear Pasaj
6 Wild Grace
Race 4
11 Sonyandpally
16 Alarmed Ndangerous
9 El Dreamer
5 Mr Algebra
Race 5
15 Political Justice
11 How do I win
12 A Boy Named Em
3 Blue Creek
Race 6
2 Lure of the South (30-1)
11 Night Site
5 Lea
13 Escape Artist
Race 7 (scratches could kill this race)
15 Dehere of the Cat
14 Piscesbymoonlight
12 Yankee Kitten
11 Roaring Conquest
Race 8
7 Adios Nardo
6 Cat Sweep (15-1)
12 Reserve Currency
5 SpringCourt
Race 9
2 Shrewd One (BEST BET SINGLE)
8 Fusa Code
5 Spin out
1 Bellamy Brew
Race 10
5 Zo Impressive
4 Funny Proposition
6 In Lingerie
2 DisposablePleasure
Race 11
11 My Sweet Candy
16 Dynamic Star
6 Diamond D'oro
2 Chessrate
Early Pick 4 races 2-5 $0.50 = 2,6,8/8/5,9,11,12,16/3,11,12,15 ($30)
Late Pick 4 races 8-11 $0.50 = 5,6,7,12/2/4,5,6/2,6,11,16 ($24)Comment -
More Saratoga for today! May play some Emerald Downs this afternoon.
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SARATOGA, JULY 22
Race 1
4 TAPITUDE
1 PAPER PLANE
8 SILVER OVER GOLD
5 ALISON's WYN
Race 2
3 STAR CHANNEL
8 HEAVY BREATHING
1 FILM SHOT
5 LOCKOUT
Race 3
1A NEW BELIEVER (BEST BET SINGLE)
13 HAVE YOU EVER
10 GALAXY CAT
11 MADMAN DIARIES
Race 4
4 SHMOOZ TALKER
8 MY GOLDEN OPINION
6 HE'S SO CHIC
7 RIGBY
Race 5
11 CURRENT DESIGN
6 LE GRAND ARTISTE
3 ASTONISH
8 HARDROCKER
Early pick 4 Race 2 = 1,3,5,8/12/4,6,8/6,11 ($12)
Race 6
10 SMOKEM"S CHARM
9 READYTHEBYLINE
4 READTHEPROSPECTUS
3 PALACE
Race 7
3 IRISHTTOCAT
7 HEY LITTLE GIRL
6 BUNHEAD
8 MADAME JOHAR
Race 8
9 GA EMPRESS
5 REACH FOR A PEACH
10 SCHILLERETTE
6 LADYWELL COURT
Race 9
5 ROSE JUNCTION (BEST SINGLE)
3 BERN IDENTITY
9 JOHN GORDON
1 HANDSOME JACK
Race 10
14 HIGH ON KITTEN
7 COURT of DREAMS
12 WET ONE
6 LITTLE RED RIDER
Late pick 4 race 7 = 3,7/5,6,9,10/5/7,12,14 ($12)Comment -
SARATOGA 7/29
Race 1
6 DEHERE OF THE CAT
1 PISCESBYMOONLIGHT
2 ZIVO
5 MAD BOMBER
Race 2
8 AWESOME WEEKEND (BEST BET SINGLE)
1 SONG OF ASPEN (30-1)
6 NO NUKES
7 ROCKIN MANDY
Race 3
1 LANDING MY WAY
5 SMARTY BULL
4 PRIMAL BABY
7 SANSANNAH
Race 4
3 RIOLOMA
10 GEISHA GAL (15-1)
8 LET THE KITTEN RUN
4 VACATIONING
Race 5
1 ANCHOVY
5 SIMPLE RULES
4 HOOKED ON DREAMS
3 FLY CAT
Race 6
7 COMMENT
13 DEVERELL
14 ACCENT
4 RAQUEL
Race 7
11 HANGOVER KID (10-1)
2 UNBRIDLED FIRE
6 ARC ABOVE
9 TAPAWAY
Race 8
13 GLORY IN MOTION
12 JARDENIA
4 NURSE DOLCE
7 PROUDROAD TO GLORY
Race 9
12 DELIGHTFUL QUALITY
6 HARBOR MIST (20-1)
7 KARLOVY VARY
10 LADY COHIBA
Race 10
4 CURRENCY SWAP
2 FORT LOUDON
1 GUN BOAT
6 POLITICALLY CORRECT
Race 11
6 THE PADDYMAN
4 POLICE CHATTER
15 MINESCAPE
12 NOT TODAY
-------------------Comment -
If you're a math guy, let me tell you the only math you should need. The tracks and the state governments take between 16 to 27% of the money out of every pool. Then, if you're win (or place or show) betting, they do something called breakage, which means if a horse should pay 5.59 after the take-out, they'll always round DOWN to the nearest .20 cents to 5.40. This gouges you for a few more %. All this makes it almost impossible to make long term profits in horse racing. Adding to the uphill battle, is the fact that many small tracks have pools so low, that your betting against your own money. You haven't even figured the cost of PP's and all the time you spend handicapping.
Pari-Mutuals were designed to be a player vs. player game where the house took a 5% commission. This is a very beatable game for a player. But governments got so greedy, that they wanted a fixed % of handle instead of taxing net profits, so they pushed the take-outs so high, that horse racing as a full time money maker is a waste of time (with a few exceptions). Those exceptions are carryover pools and pick 3's 4's and 5's with lower holds that can offer +ev situations with big payoffs. But there is a reason horse racing is a practically dead sport, the good handicappers and gamblers who would normally make a living, can only eek out a very small profit, too small to continue spending the time it takes to be good. The bad horseplayers go broke, because the combination of bad wagers and high rake kills them off.
Think of horse racing as a poker game that lasts all year. The good players are taking money from the bad players. Not every pot, and the bad players beat the good players sometimes in short spurts, but after a year, its always the good players taking the money from the bad players. Now imagine that the house was taking 20% of every single poker pot. How long would it take before the house gets everybody's money?Comment -
Lets look at some Monmouth for 08/03
Race 1
7 WOW ME
2 BLUES HEIR
4 BEARLY ENOUGH
6 MYSTICAL RHYTHMS
The 2 and the 4 should push the pace here, but the 7 should be able to stay just off the lead and destroy them coming home.
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Race 2
3 MISS CEDAR KEY
1 SHADOWFAXFABLE
2 STARSHIP MADE IT
7 MORE THAN CRAFTY
Another pace race, there is a possiblity the 2 jumps out to a lead and isn't caught, but I really think it will be caught by the 3 and possibly the 1 coming down the stretch. The may push the pace helping out the 3 and the 1 here as well.
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Race 3
4 ANDROMEDA'S STORM
3 EXIBIT A
2 TIGER'S ARGUMENT
1 PEANUTBUTTERBROWN
Another race where I think the winner comes off the pace. The 6 should jump out to an early lead, but won't hold it for long, the no one here is going to be able to run away from the field, although the 3 or the 1 may try. As long as the 4 can stay within a few lengths the race is over coming down the lane.
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Race 4
2 AL'S LARK
4 I'VE GOT THE FEVER
5 STREET HAVEN
3 DREAMS OF ATLANTIS
This is a wide open race...quite frankly I don't see anywone who is out of this race other than the 6, I will go out on a limb and say there is no way the 6 is involved. Other than that, I would look for a nice price on the 2 or the 4.
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Race 5
4 VASTEN
2 ALPHA ZUMBA
3 VANNA GO's POINT
6 STANDFIRE
The 4 or the 2 should win this race, if the pace is fast the 4 should roll home, but if they let the 2 get out early without a lot of pressure the 2 could easily wire this field. I also kinda like the longshot 3 (ML 20-1) here. Could have a shot, and may play him on the back end of some exotics.
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Race 6
4 CANDY MINE
3 AN IMAGINARY ROAD
10 BACK IN FLORIDA
5 XPOSTFACTO
This race is huge wide open, Anyone could take this one and its a huge field. This is the race that keeps me away from playing pick3s and pick4s with this race involved.
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Race 7
9 MAGGIESOTHERSISTER
4 DON SIX'S NUMBER
5 KNIGHT TRIPP
6 BELIEVE IN DANCING
A nice race may develop between the 4 and the 9 coming down the stretch. The 4 should be out on the lead and may wire the field, but if the 3 comes out and helps press that pace the 9 may be able to make a run down the stretch. A nice double in the pick3s and pick4s
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Race 8
8 RUDY RUDY RUDY
4 UNLIMITED SPIRIT
5 MARTINI MADNESS
2 IT'S TIME TO LAUGH
OK, part of me wants to bet on the 8 just one the name alone....epic! On a serious note its a pretty close race, but I do think Rudy has a legit shot here, its a short turf race, so who really knows.
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Race 9
7 MYPRINCESSALYSON
8 ANGEL DREAMS
1 MY LUCKY SHOES
3 RED OVER BLUE
Watch out for the 7 at a nice price (ML 15-1) I think the 7 is the most probable winner here. The pace should be quick with a number of horses fighting for the front, coming down the stretch I think the 7 is the strongest. THe problem is that the 7 may have to go pretty wide coming around the turn which could hurt him. If the 8 gets a nice run it will take a shot at it here.
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Race 10
4 MEATBEAU
9 VERITAS MAN
8 JERSEY NUGGET
1 MANNY DIABLO
Best bet single here on the 4, the pace should be wild and the 4 should be able to come from teh second tier of horses around the turn and win this thing easily down the stretch.
Race 1 Daily Double = 7/1,2,3
Race 2 Pick 4 = 1,2,3/4/2,4,5,3,1,7/2,3,4 ($27 but it all depends on how deep I want to go in the 4th, I may take out the 1 and the 7 to make it a cheaper $18)
Race 7 Pick 4 = 4,9/2,4,5,8/1,3,7,8/4 ($16) I really hate singling the last race, but its my best bet single so you gots to.Comment -
Excellent insight...thanks BGComment -
SARATOGA 08/03
Race 1
1 MEDIA STARLETT
6 JOONBI
4 MY IRISH GIRL
8 VICTORIA LYNN
7 ALASKA MISS
Race 2
8 NECK OF THE MOON
11 SASSY EXPRESSION
4 WITHHONORANDGRACE
3 WATCH YOUR BIZ
Race 3
1 GREED AND FEAR
2 BRONZE BEAUTY
7 SMART BELIEVER
5 DARNLEY BAY
Race 4
3 BOMBER BOY
6 COALTOWN LEGEND
8 IRON LOU
5 LIFTGATE
Race 5
7 SKY COMMANDER
9 JOCOSITY
6 MIDNIGHT TABOO
3 JUDGE WYLIE
8 CENTRAL BANKER
Race 6
2 JITNEY
14 NOTESFROMABROAD
3 CAPE COD CAROL
9 A.P. HUTCHY
RACE 7
11 WILD TARGET
5 BARRYMORE
8 CURRENT DESIGN
2 SOUTHERN JOY
RACE 8
1 TAHOE LAKE
2 HARRODS CREEK
4 BALLET BOY
3 GAMEBALL
RACE 9
3 CC's PAL
7 IT'S ME MOM
8 MAPLE FOREST
2 BELLE OF THE HALL
Race 10
12 MAGNIFICENT MIA
5 GLORY IN MOTION
15 ROMAN RENEGADE
13 SACRED HONORComment -
TOGA!!!!!! 08/05
Race 1
4 FIRE ASSAY
6 GUNFORHOME (15-1)
10 HUNTER FORWARD
9 TROPHY WIFE
Race 2
2 CONSPIRACY
5 STATE FLAG
9 INPUT
4 HOGUE
Race 3
2 ROCKIN BOOGIE
1 OUR MISTER
5 LOUD PIPES
7 WALLY DID IT
Race 4
8 WILLET
6 RESONATING
3 BRILLIANT KATIE
1A DIAMONTE DI FUEGO
Race 5
8 JUNOON
3 YES ITS PINK
11 CHASING PIPER
10 ALWAYS HOME
Race 6
5 THREE HEARTS
3 DOUBLE TAPPED
8 GUSTAVA
4 SKYFALL
Race 7
1 I DREAMT IT WAS
5 SCHILLERETTE
9 TEMPER IN COMMAND
3 BAKIN WITH CINDY
Race 8
5 ASCENDED FEVER
11 WILDCATS ELEMENT
8 JOHN's MARIAH
3 READ THE PERSONALS
Race 9
8 CAJUN BREEZE
7 CLIP THE COUPONS
3 THERMAL CAT
6 PROFESSOR FATE
Race 10
2 EMCEE
6 SLOAN RANGER (15-1)
1 SHACKLEFORD
3 JUSTIN PHILLIPS
RACE 11
2 HERON LAKE
13 ZOW
14 DECISION POINT
5 AFRICANIST
Late Pick 4 Race 8 = 5,11/3,6,7,8/1,2,6/2,13 $24.00Comment -
EMERALD 08/05
Race 1
2 INTENTIONAL FOUL
1 MORE THAN FRIENDS
5 STRONG BEATING HEART
3 MICHEVIOUS MYTH
Race 2 (ALL BUTTON)
4 NOTDABOSSOFME
2 ORCAS GOLD
3 FORIN SEA
6 SAM JAM
Race 3
4 WILD WINGS
6 STEVIE Z
2 REGAL VALID
1 DECARCHY COCKTAIL
Race 4
2 CHICKASAW PARK
7 PASSION LIVES HERE
5 BUDS A FLYIN
4 NEWAUKUM CREEK
Race 5
4 EPIC CAST
2 BUDDY DAVE
3 GDANZ EXPRESS
6 BOISE CREEK
Race 6
4 SUNNDY DRIVE
2 RAISE THE ANTE
6 GENTLEMENS RED
7 MYSINCIRCUS
Race 7
4 GO WITH GUSTO
1 TRIBALTIQUE
3 KOOKY SALUKY
2 AARON THE BARON
Race 8
6 SONG OF SEATTLE
4 BLUEBERRY SMOOTHIE
5 GOING TO THE WINDOW
3 HOUSE OF HOPE
Race 9
4 HILLBILLY CADDILAC
6 PLAY FOR DOUBLE
1 EVIL URGES
3 RUN ATOM
Early Pick 4 Race 1 = 2/ALL/2,4,6/2 ($9)
Late pick 4 Race 6 = 2,4,6,7/4/4,5,6/4,6 ($12)Comment -
Looks like Saratoga is going to be all kinds of wet and guessing they will go off turf....I won't be playing Saratoga today....Comment -
hi
Perhaps you can help me?
I am retired now and can spend a bit more time on my betting hobby - I would like a spreadsheet - excel - where I can enter the horses I am going to bet on - the odds - the wins/losses and show an ongoing total - profit and loss sort of sheet - without me having to do too much work?
I know you are more into the prediction side of things but I rely on my trusty pin!
DaveComment
