Mike Battaglia says the Morning Line favorite for the Derby will be 5 or 6-1.
Appears Win and Exacta plays are the way to go. Thoughts?
Appears Win and Exacta plays are the way to go. Thoughts?
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Got to figure Bodemeister, Gemologist, Union Rags, Dullahan, and Hansen will all be around 5/1 to 10/1 to win with Bodemeister probably the morning line choice. No heavy favorite this year. Makes for an interesting race and to see where the money goes.Comment -
I think Bodemeister is going to end up being a heavier favorite then expected.This is one of the 3 or 4 times a year the casual fan picks up a DRF and he enters with a 108 beyer(If you believe it I'd say more like 110) where 80% of the field hasn't cracked the 100 barrier.Still not really short maybe 3-1/7-2 range but exactas/tris are always worth it Derby day.No reason not to go after the biggest pools of the year .Comment -
I think JB is giving Bode around a ZERO so he isn't above everyone on TG.Creative Cause also has a zero a couple back too but I think all the figure makers are taking cues from each other and using creative license to give Bode less than he really ran.I mean he would have beat older grade one winners Hymn Brook/Ron The Greek etc... by 7/8+ lengths who ran one race earlier.Comment -
I am not ready to give up on Hansen. This animal can run. He will be in my exacta and Trifecata box.Comment -
Maybe...I'm not ruling anyone out yet but the emergence of Bodemeister basically decimated Hansen's chances.Without Bode I would give Hansen a shot to hang on for a piece but with Bode in there I think Hansen and the rest of the frontrunners get run off their feet and get passed by half the field or more in the stretch.If the race were tomorrow I'd go with Bode over and under 2 or 3 closers(Alpha,Creative Cause,Union Rags)Comment -
I don't think much of the Sunland Park/Turfway Park preps.I think Isn't He Clever showed in the Arkansas Derby how legit the Sunland race was.They were going against the Baffert/Pletcher 4th or 5th strings.Its gotten out of hand getting to the point were you have to be suspicious of all these figures .He will be running at the end though so maybe I'd throw him in a super or tri.Comment -
I like Dullahan stretching out with his strong closing kick. Only two problems could be finding a way through the 20 horse cavalry charge and the relatively short turn around of three weeks running back from The Blue Grass. If he does win the Derby it will pretty much rule out a triple crown bid IMO. Horse may well be held out till the Belmont where the distance would be really be up his alley.
Yeah Derby's on dirt, but his 4th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Churchill begs a closer look for several reasons. After being bumped, he ran well and look at what the three who hit the board in front of him have done since. A plus also is Romans who knows what he's doing at his home track. So a strong case can be made for Dullahan.
Would for sure like the see Mining Her Own become the first broodmare to procuce two Derby winning horses. And remember that Birdstone and Even The Score are only middle of the road Kentucky stallions. All about the broodmare here boys. Remember Borel closing with Mine That Bird. I expect the same here.Comment -
Dullahan is a good horse, but you are not going to get 50/1 like you did if you had Mine That Bird about 4 years back.Comment -
I checked into Daddy Nose Best. He's a closer like Dullahan. Unlike, Dullahan he's proven himself as a dirt runner. Dullahan's best performance was on a synthetic track. May be something to consider.Comment
