Dexter's Saratoga 2011

[Dexter]

Delmar - Wednesday August 3rd:

R1: #6 You're Joking (5/1)
R2: #5 Coffee Boy (5/1)
R3: #6 Desperate Measures (7/2)
R4: #5 Miss Anime (9/2)
R5: #1 Random Luck (6/1)
R6: #5 Hiatus (9/2)*
R7: #7 Pend Oreille (5/1)
R8: #14 Rocket Trip (8/1)

*$10 across all except R6 - $20 across

[joeyp1222]

Good luck i will be upthere starting with uk betting in morning

[Dexter]

Good luck i will be upthere starting with uk betting in morning

awesome. i havent been to saratoga in years. enjoy...

[Dexter]

The Spa - Wednesday August 3rd:

R1: #1 Puzzling (6/1) (W+152)
R2: #7 Iron Post (6/1) (L-30)
R3: #1 Yadira (5/1) (W+112)
R4: #3 Saucy Jade (6/1) (L-30)
R5: #1 The Defense Rests (4/1) (W+60)
R6: #7 Unbridled Heat (5/1) (P+13)
R7: #4 Out of the Ghetto (4/1)* (S-30)
R8: #1 Mineswept (5/1) (L-30)
R9: #3 It Doesn't Add Up (6/1) (L-30)
R10: #7 Paul's Ace (6/1) (L-30)

*$10 across all except R7 - $20 across

8/3: +$157
Saratoga TTD: -$1135

[Dexter]

Delmar - Wednesday August 3rd:

R1: #6 You're Joking (5/1)
R2: #5 Coffee Boy (5/1)
R3: #6 Desperate Measures (7/2)
R4: #5 Miss Anime (9/2)
R5: #1 Random Luck (6/1)
R6: #5 Hiatus (9/2)*
R7: #7 Pend Oreille (5/1)
R8: #14 Rocket Trip (8/1)

*$10 across all except R6 - $20 across

8/3: -$270
Delmar TTD: -$30

[Dexter]

Delmar - Thursday August 4th:

R2: #4 Low Gear Power (7/2) - $20 across

[Dexter]

The Spa - Thursday August 4th:

R3: #7 Good Deed (4/1)
R4: #2 Dayatthespa (5/1)
R5: #2 Sparks Will Fly (5/1)
R6: #9 Classical Fashion (8/1)
R7: #6 Sangaree (6/1)
R8: #1 Style Squad (5/1)
R9: #1 Annawon (6/1)*
R10: #1 Getinitalltogether (6/1)

*$10 across all - except R9 $20 across

[Dexter]

Saratoga:

R5: #6 Hall of Flame (6/1)

*#2 scratched

[Dexter]

Delmar:
R4: #12 Warring Heart (6/1) - $10 across

[Dexter]

The Spa - Thursday August 4th:

R3: #7 Good Deed (4/1) (L-30)
R4: #2 Dayatthespa (5/1) (W+46)
R5: #6 Hall of Flame (L-30)
R6: #9 Classical Fashion (8/1) (L-30)
R7: #6 Sangaree (6/1) (P+16)
R8: #1 Style Squad (5/1) (L-30)
R9: #1 Annawon (6/1)* (W+271)
R10: #1 Getinitalltogether (6/1) (L-30)

*$10 across all - except R9 $20 across

8/4: +$183
Saratoga TTD: -$952

[Dexter]

Delmar:

R5: #2
R6: #4*
R7: #3
R8: #3

$10 across all except R6 $20 across

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/4: $-92
Delmar TTD: -$122

[Dexter]

Friday August 5th:

R1: #2 Wise Stop (3/1)
R2: #2 Singlet (5/1)*
R3: #3 Bubble Gum (5/1)
R4: #8 Dorothy's Spirit (6/1)
R5: #5 Witch's Orchard (5/1)
R6: #3 Rocky Fortune (5/1)
R7: #2 Followmyfootsteps (12/1)
R8: #7 Dual Citizen (5/1)
R9: #6 Freudian Therapist (8/1)

$10 across all races except R2 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Saratoga:
R7: #7 Sanagas (12/1)

#2 is scratched*

[Dexter]

Delmar Friday August 5th:

R1: #2 Running Isabella (7/2)
R2: #6 Aeromon (4/1)
R3: #7 Unusual Beam (5/1)
R4: #6 Ribat (4/1)*
R5: #8 Just Heat (4/1)
R6: #4 Nice Meidel (5/1)*
R7: #3 Willa B Awesome (6/1)
R8: #1 Brooklyn Rose (4/1)

$10 across all races except R4, R6 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Friday August 5th:

R1: #2 Wise Stop (3/1) (P+4)
R2: #2 Singlet (5/1)* (W+188)
R3: #3 Bubble Gum (5/1) (L-30)
R4: #8 Dorothy's Spirit (6/1) (L-30)
R5: #5 Witch's Orchard (5/1) (L-30)
R6: #3 Rocky Fortune (5/1) (P+22.5)
R7: #7 Sanagas (W+104.5)
R8: #7 Dual Citizen (5/1) (S-6)
R9: #6 Freudian Therapist (8/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races except R2 $20 across*

8/5: +$193
Saratoga TTD: -$759

[Dexter]

Delmar Friday August 5th:

R1: #2 Running Isabella (7/2) (L-30)
R2: #6 Aeromon (4/1) (S-18)
R3: #7 Unusual Beam (5/1) (S-16)
R4: #6 Ribat (4/1)* (S-34)
R5: #8 Just Heat (4/1) (P+15)
R6: #4 Nice Meidel (5/1)* (W+168)
R7: #3 Willa B Awesome (6/1) (L-30)
R8: #1 Brooklyn Rose (4/1) (W+79)

$10 across all races except R4, R6 $20 across*

8/5: +$134
Delmar TTD: +$12

[Dexter]

Saratoga Saturday August 6th:

R1: #6 Cheyenne Nation (6/1)
R2: #7 Sabercat (6/1)
R3: #8 Take the Gold (6/1)
R4: #5 Sunnybrook (6/1)
R5: #8 Five Sigma Event (5/1)
R6: #11 Pure Gift (6/1)
R7: #1 Captain My Captain (10/1)
R8: #5 Evading Tempete (9/2)*
R9: #8 Her Smile (4/1)
R10: #5 Tizway (6/1)
R11: #8 Green Monster (5/1)*

$10 across all races except R8, R11 $20 across*

[Poppa Catfish]

Great to see you catching fire, best of luck Dex

[gembo12]

Keep it going. When your hot your hot.

[Dexter]

Delmar - Saturday August 6th:

R1: #5 Red Sharp Humor (3/1)
R2: #4 Meadow Lake Queen (4/1)
R3: #1 Kilkenny (6/1)
R4: #8 Clever Chloe (4/1)
R5: #4 Master Chef (7/2)*
R6: #11 Basmati (9/2)
R7: #6 Arcodoro (5/1)*
R8: #3 Zazu (3/1)*
R9: #7 Bullybullybully (6/1)
R10: #5 Leavin in a Limo (6/1)

$10 across all races except R5, R7, R8 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Saratoga Saturday August 6th:

R1: #6 Cheyenne Nation (6/1) (W+91.5)
R2: #7 Sabercat (6/1) (L-30)
R3: #8 Take the Gold (6/1) (S-15)
R4: #5 Sunnybrook (6/1) (S-5)
R5: #8 Five Sigma Event (5/1) (S-7.5)
R6: #11 Pure Gift (6/1) (L-30)
R7: #1 Captain My Captain (10/1) (L-30)
R8: #5 Evading Tempete (9/2)* (S-25)
R9: #8 Her Smile (4/1) (L-30)
R10: #5 Tizway (6/1) (W+70.5)
R11: #8 Green Monster (5/1)* (scratched)

$10 across all races except R8, R11 $20 across*

8/6: -$10.5
Saratoga TTD: -$769.5

[Dexter]

Delmar - Saturday August 6th:

R1: #5 Red Sharp Humor (3/1) (L-30)
R2: #4 Meadow Lake Queen (4/1) (S-13)
R3: #1 Kilkenny (6/1) (L-30)
R4: #8 Clever Chloe (4/1) (L-30)
R5: #4 Master Chef (7/2)* (L-60)
R6: #11 Basmati (9/2) (P+3)
R7: #6 Arcodoro (5/1)* (P+24)
R8: #3 Zazu (3/1)* (P+0)
R9: #7 Bullybullybully (6/1) (P+15)
R10: #5 Leavin in a Limo (6/1) (S-3)

$10 across all races except R5, R7, R8 $20 across*

8/6: -$124
Delmar TTD: -$112

[Dexter]

Saratoga Sunday August 7th:

R1: #3 Vinda (5/1)
R2: #2 Notesfromabroad (4/1)
R3: #4 Beautiful Risk (5/1)
R4: #4 Starry (3/1)
R5: #3 Evan's Rocket (6/1)*
R6: #7 Wanstead (6/1)
R7: #11 Little Larky (5/1)
R8: #8 And Why Not (7/2)
R9: #4 Champagne d'Oro (3/1)
R10: #7 Apriority (3/1)
R11: #3 Lincoln Penny (8/1)

$10 across all races except R5 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Delmar Sunday August 7th:

R1: #3
R2: #7
R3: #2
R4: no play
R5: #7
R6: #8
R7: #4
R8: #4
R9: #6
R10: #6

$10 across all races*

[Dexter]

Saratoga Sunday August 7th:

R1: #16 Tempest Storm (7/2)
R2: #2 Notesfromabroad (4/1)
R3: #4 Beautiful Risk (5/1)
R4: #4 Starry (3/1)
R5: #14 Saratoga Silver (5/1)
R6: #7 Wanstead (6/1)
R7: #11 Little Larky (5/1)
R8: #8 And Why Not (7/2)
R9: #4 Champagne d'Oro (3/1)
R10: #7 Apriority (3/1)
R11: #2B Positive Carry (10/1)

$10 across all races except R5 $20 across*

changes due to off turf

[Dexter]

Saratoga Sunday August 7th:

R1: #16 Tempest Storm (L-30)
R2: #2 Notesfromabroad (4/1) (S-14.5)
R3: #4 Beautiful Risk (5/1) (S-8.5)
R4: #4 Starry (3/1) (L-30)
R5: #14 Saratoga Silver (L-30)
R6: #7 Wanstead (6/1) (L-30)
R7: #11 Little Larky (5/1) (L-30)
R8: #8 And Why Not (7/2) (W+109.5)
R9: #4 Champagne d'Oro (3/1) (S-16.5)
R10: #7 Apriority (3/1) (L-30)
R11: #3 Lincoln Penny (8/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races except R5 $20 across*

8/7: -$140
Saratoga TTD: -$909.5

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/8:

R1: #6
R2: #3
R3: #6
R4: #8
R5: #1
R6: #4
R7: #1a
R8: #3
R9: #7
R10: #3

[Dexter]

$10 across all races*

[Dexter]

Delmar Sunday August 7th:

R1: #3 (W+31)
R2: #7 (L-30)
R3: #2 (L-30)
R4: no play
R5: #7 (L-30)
R6: #8 (L-30)
R7: #4 (L-30)
R8: #4 (L-30)
R9: #6 (L-30)
R10: #6 (L-30)

$10 across all races*

8/7: -$209
Delmar TTD: -$321

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/8:

R1: #6 (L-30)
R2: #3 (P+1)
R3: #6 (P+21)
R4: #8 (L-30)
R5: #1 (S-18.5)
R6: #4 (P+25)
R7: #1a (S+4.5)
R8: #3 (L-30)
R9: #7 (L-30)
R10: #3 (W+113)

8/7: +$26
Saratoga TTD: -$883.5

[Dexter]

Saratoga - Wednesday August 10th:

R1: #2 Glory Game (6/1)
R2: #9 Ducky McLean (4/1)
R3: #4 Freuds Ana Streak (7/2)*
R4: #5 Seeker (3/1)
R5: #4 Emerald Beech (6/1)
R6: #3 Need an Angel (4/1)*
R7: #9 Storm Galileo (6/1)
R8: #1 Derivative (3/1)
R9: #6 Distant Sky (5/1)
R10: #3 Hershel (4/1)*

$10 across all races except R3, R6, R10 $20 across*

[dumbmoney]

Hey Dex,
I check in on your posts from time to time to see how you're doing. I like your dedication to posting your plays, and your passion for playing the spa. I do have a question for you on your betting strategy. I usually play more exotic bets, but if you are going to play wps, have you ever considered just playing wp, or just win, or at least limiting your show bets to the really long shots. I've been keeping track of my betting strategies and payoffs and my ROI with show bets was horrible. I've just about eliminated them unless playing a real longshot, and I've seen an overall improvement. Much of the reason I think is because the breakage is more likely to be a large portion of the payout. For example, lets say you put a show bet down on a mid-price horse and after the takeout the show bet should pay real odds of 2.75 when they round it down to 2.60 they are taking off .15 of your .75 winnings. Thats an extra 20% on top of the takeout and it becomes very significant over the long run on such small payouts. Its hard to overcome that. I'm sure you are aware of all this, but it may make a difference in your results. Id be curious if you took the time (many online books have tools that let you do it) and went back and ran your numbers for the saratoga/del mar meet but instead of risking 10 across, risk 15 wp or just 30 win. Youd be risking the same amount, may have more days where you got nothing back, but I'd be surprised if over the long run you don't come out ahead. Just some food for thought. Good luck.

[Dexter]

Saratoga Changes:

R2: #8 Trashi Diva (4/1) - 9 is scratched
R3: #6 D'Bulldog (5/1) - 4 is scratched ($10 across, not $20)
R6: $30W/$30P #3 - No Show Wagers
R8: #5 Sam Sparkle (3/1)

[Dexter]

Hey Dex,
I check in on your posts from time to time to see how you're doing. I like your dedication to posting your plays, and your passion for playing the spa. I do have a question for you on your betting strategy. I usually play more exotic bets, but if you are going to play wps, have you ever considered just playing wp, or just win, or at least limiting your show bets to the really long shots. I've been keeping track of my betting strategies and payoffs and my ROI with show bets was horrible. I've just about eliminated them unless playing a real longshot, and I've seen an overall improvement. Much of the reason I think is because the breakage is more likely to be a large portion of the payout. For example, lets say you put a show bet down on a mid-price horse and after the takeout the show bet should pay real odds of 2.75 when they round it down to 2.60 they are taking off .15 of your .75 winnings. Thats an extra 20% on top of the takeout and it becomes very significant over the long run on such small payouts. Its hard to overcome that. I'm sure you are aware of all this, but it may make a difference in your results. Id be curious if you took the time (many online books have tools that let you do it) and went back and ran your numbers for the saratoga/del mar meet but instead of risking 10 across, risk 15 wp or just 30 win. Youd be risking the same amount, may have more days where you got nothing back, but I'd be surprised if over the long run you don't come out ahead. Just some food for thought. Good luck.

i know that most sharp players do play exotics but i really dont have the time to dig through every horse the way you should when looking to play 3, 4 horses. so i try to keep it simple and just isolate the 1 horse that i think can win at a decent price. i was playing W/P but mike made a suggestion that i go across the board and look for more longer shots. i pretty much now will demand 4/1 min on the morning line. obviously i've still got some work to do, so i appreciate your suggestions. Limiting show bets to longer shots is def something thats been on my mind. i will ride out what ive been doing till the end of the meet for saratoga and delmar. i dont like juggling strategies during a season, meet etc....especially if im down. if i decide to bet the next meet at belmont, i will def consider changing the show strategy. thx for the advice.