The Belmont.

[AlexanderNehro]

@ rivalz - Next Saturday, June 11th
Monday’s works

Whether you like fast works or moderately slow works, it was easy to come away feeling good after watching Nehro breeze an easy half-mile in :50 4/5 and Animal Kingdom zip his half in a bullet :47 3/5.

Nehro looked as if he was doing nothing more than open-galloping, as he loped past the quarter pole, well off the rail. He was still on nothing more than cruise control down the stretch, barely in work-mode. Once he hit the wire, he actually began to pick it up and galloped out very strongly.

He looks terrific physically. His coat is radiant and he is packing good flesh. He obviously has flourished since the Derby, and owner Ahmed Zayat is feeling even better now about his decision to pass the Preakness (gr. I). (More on Nehro is tomorrow’s column)

[AlexanderNehro]

Prime Cut now considered a Belmont probable, so his connections flip flopped. Looks to be a field of 12 now.

[rthoughton]

Dude, I really really hope Nehro wins this thing.

[AlexanderNehro]

@rthoughton:

Check out part of his work video here starting at the 2:15 mark (gliding across track after the wire (closing well again), looks good):

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-nehro-gets-his-final-drill

Also, check this article out too:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63415/a-nehro-win-would-be-brilliant-for-goodman

[callmejrk1]

nehro has a hell of a chance with him being fresh

[trytrytry]

Nehro is a complete toss for me to win, glad he will take significant money.. a horse that does not like to win the wrong running style for the Belmont and not as talented as AK and the Shack, i prefer Mucho over NEhro as well.

[AlexanderNehro]

After a 6th place finish in the Preakness, and with 5 weeks less rest you take Mucho over Nehro? That's just absurd and there is no basis of an argument to say that Mucho is a better horse. The horse was at his limit during the derby with 10 furlongs, so you believe at 12 he will have a better showing? Garbage.

Also, not as talented as AK and Shack? He flat out beat Shack in his last race, and was one early move away from being the derby winner over AK. With that slow of a pace Nakatani had no other choice but to move at that point.

And finally, the horse is bred to excel with longer distance (Mineshaft) so how does he have the wrong running style? I guess Shack's running style fits this race better? Shack was 4th in the derby and that was a shorter distance. Please have a better basis on the actual sport before you post garbage.

[xyz]

Any news on Harlan's Hello? Is this horse in the Belmont Stakes race? I am trying to figure out how many horses will enter the race. 11, 12, or 13? Thanks.

[rthoughton]

I still think I'm out of the exotics. Time to hit that huge pick4.

[checkmein]

love

Gotta love the big belmont!

[AlexanderNehro]

Harlan's Hello still a possible. Right now the field is 12, with that late addition 13. Post draw is at 11 today.

[mikemca]

Post Positions


Master Of Hounds---post 1---10/1
Stay Thirsty---post 2---20/1
Ruler On Ice---post 3---20/1
Santiva---post 4---15/1
Brilliant Speed---post 5---15/1
Nehro---post 6---4/1
Monzon---post 7---30/1
Prime Cut---post 8---15/1
Animal Kingdom---post 9---2/1
Mucho Macho Man---post 10---10/1
Isn't He Perfect---post 11---30/1
Shackleford---post 12---9/2

[sports28]

My Picks
1st- Master of Hounds
2nd- Santiva
3rd- Nehro
4th- Brilliant Speed
5th- Mucho Macho Man
6th- Animal Kingdom
7th- Isn't He Perfect
8th- Stay Thirsty
9th- Shackleford
10th- Ruler On Ice
11th- Prime Cut
12th- Monzon

I picked Shackleford to win the Preakness BUT do not like him here at all. Don't like the post or how long the race is. Goodluck everyone

[AlexanderNehro]

Animal Kingdom 6th? After winning derby and losing the Preakness by 1/2 length you put him at #6? Hmmmmm.

[foryourhandicap]

Animal Kingdom 6th? After winning derby and losing the Preakness by 1/2 length you put him at #6? Hmmmmm.

Certainly a bold prediction.

[homerbush]

Wow sports28 our top 4 is almost the same minus some position switches and I like stay thirsty 4th and nehro 5th. I hope we are right. I have
1. MOH
2. Brilliant Speed
3. Santiva
4. Stay thirsty

[homerbush]

Certainly a bold prediction.

Not that bold of prediction. There has been way more dominant horses enter the Belmont and bomb. That is the fun of this race is a lot of speculation as 1.5 miles in this country does not pop up enough to handicap well off of.

[mikemca]

My Picks 1st- Master of Hounds 2nd- Santiva 3rd- Nehro 4th- Brilliant Speed 5th- Mucho Macho Man 6th- Animal Kingdom 7th- Isn't He Perfect 8th- Stay Thirsty 9th- Shackleford 10th- Ruler On Ice 11th- Prime Cut 12th- Monzon I picked Shackleford to win the Preakness BUT do not like him here at all. Don't like the post or how long the race is. Goodluck everyone

Wow sports28 our top 4 is almost the same minus some position switches and I like stay thirsty 4th and nehro 5th. I hope we are right. I have 1. MOH 2. Brilliant Speed 3. Santiva 4. Stay thirsty

My early leans are in the same ballpark as you guys

Brilliant Speed
Master Of Hounds
Mucho Macho Man

[mrginandtonic]

I'm kinda surprised that no one has selected AK in their top 3 or 5 choices!?

[mrginandtonic]

My thoughts:

http://foryourhandicapping.blogspot....this-june.html

I think AK is the one to beat too.

[BGboothA]

Nehro
Master of hounds
Ak


One of these three takes it

[mikemca]

I think AK is the one to beat too.

He is the 2-1 favorite and will probably go down to around 8-5.Of course he is the horse to beat but at those odds you are taking the worst of it.

[TonyP]

After a 6th place finish in the Preakness, and with 5 weeks less rest you take Mucho over Nehro? That's just absurd and there is no basis of an argument to say that Mucho is a better horse. The horse was at his limit during the derby with 10 furlongs, so you believe at 12 he will have a better showing? Garbage.

Also, not as talented as AK and Shack? He flat out beat Shack in his last race, and was one early move away from being the derby winner over AK. With that slow of a pace Nakatani had no other choice but to move at that point.

And finally, the horse is bred to excel with longer distance (Mineshaft) so how does he have the wrong running style? I guess Shack's running style fits this race better? Shack was 4th in the derby and that was a shorter distance. Please have a better basis on the actual sport before you post garbage.

I dont care how much rest nehro has he wont go the distance and ak and mmm can. MMM was not at his limit going 10 panels. Watch the replay. nehro could not keep up with ak and was shortning up when mmm was coming on, another 1/2 mmm goes by nehro and moh does to.

I dont see how you can say he would have been the derby winner with an early move ak went by him like he wasnt even there.

[TonyP]

I'm kinda surprised that no one has selected AK in their top 3 or 5 choices!?

I have him on top however trying to beat him with something

[TonyP]

Nehro is a complete toss for me to win, glad he will take significant money.. a horse that does not like to win the wrong running style for the Belmont and not as talented as AK and the Shack, i prefer Mucho over NEhro as well.

me to he cant win this. and like you glad to see all the support he is going to get at the windows

[TonyP]

looks like moh could be the wise guy play.

[Gremlin Lad]

Just got a look at the Past Performances.. Hate to say it guys BUT Nehro acts like a horse that does not want to pass a more "dominant" animal (horse). Poor Nehro has had one win (Maidens Special weights) and then three second place finishes in the LA Derby (won by Pants On Fire), Ark Derby ( won by ArchArchArch) and the Ky Derby ( won by Animal Kingdom),.....looks like he pushes the leading horse across the finish line.

Definitely, Nehro will be a horse I will use in the exotic wagers.

[mikemca]

My Take

Master Of Hounds(10-1)---I would probably have this guy on top if not for the connections shipping him back and forth across the Atlantic for some odd reason.I don't understand why they didn't just ship to NY from the Derby and get a few works over big sandy.Nonetheless he has the sustain running style and is bred for the 1 1/2 so he is in my top 3.

Stay Thirsty(20/1)---Is in the race simply so Repole will have a rooting interest.He has impeccable breeding but I just don't see him running well.A couple well informed players I sometimes take advice from want to give him a chance but I just don't see it.

Ruler On Ice(20/1)----He isn't bred for this far and I see him looking for oxygen turning for home.

Santiva(15-1)---Too many chances but may offer value sucking up 3rd or 4th after another excuse filled trip.One of my fringe players.

Brilliant Speed(15/1)---Is my key, like the way he finished in the Derby after taking the widest route of everyone turning for home.Has the same kind of sustained running style as MOH only has been brought up to this race in a perfect way with a speed work followed by two maintenance works.Also bred well for the distance and is as game as they come.Also has one of the best jocks on his back in Rosario.

Nehro(4/1)---On the fence with him.Have a feeling we won't see that kick he has showed because it looks as if as he stretches out his late run diminishes.I see him as a beast up to 1 1/8 but beyond that he is iffy and the price he will be makes him even less appealing.That said still might have to use him defensively in exotics.

Monzon(30/1)---Was the wise guy horse in the Peter Pan but never picked up his feet.Ran a competitive number 3 back while beating JJs Lucky Train and Pants On Fire so he can be used underneath at a huge price.

Prime Cut(15/1)---He had no excuse in the Peter Pan and just wasn't good enough.Does look like he will recieve the best trip in the race though sitting 2nd but trainers indecisiveness makes me feel he doesn't belong.

Animal Kingdom(2/1)---The chalk and deserves it after two very good runs.However my whole philosophy playing horses is to beat these kind of horses.If you bet him in the Derby ,good pick, if not then you missed the boat.I see his bullet work as a negative and Velasquez said he kinda ran off with him.Meaning he may be rank and hard to settle in the Belmont.Also as I mentioned in a different thread the trainer always gives his stock rest between races and here he is kinda being forced to run AK back on 3 weeks rest after 2 grueling races.He would never do this if it weren't the Belmont Stakes.I see this as a fantastic opportunity to play aginst a heavy favorite and leave him off completely.

Mucho Macho Man(10/1)---Am tempted to leave him off completely also because he ran tough races in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby like AK and I would if not for Dominguez.Ramon is the best jock there is IMO and I see most of MMM trouble lines having to do with Rajiv Maragh hanging him wide like he does with a lot of his mounts.All in all I just see it as a huge upgrade but it may be too late.Still a few days before I have to bet but for now he is in my top 3.

Isn't He Perfect(30/1)---Same thing as Stay Thirsty with Repole in that Shivmangal is a NYer and just wants a horse in the race.Add the fact that Maragh picks up the mount and this horse is destined to be 5 wide into the first turn then in tight down the backstretch and 6 wide coming home.

Shackleford(9/2)---Not quite the same as AK in missing the boat if you didn't bet his Preakness because he continues to get little respect even after 3 game efforts. He keeps on proving the "he can't get the distance" people wrong .I had him on top in the Derby then had him as my 2nd choice in the Preakness but even I have a hard time seeing him wire the field at 1 1/2.Add that he is forced to send from the outside post and his chances look even bleaker.Still this is the best 3 yr old in the US this year IMO and also the gamest.It wouldn't shock me at all if when another horse challenges him in the stretch he fights it out and his heart carries him where his pedigree ends.If he can slow it down to a crawl in the 2nd,3rd,and 4th quarters he stands a chance.Also all depends on how much he is bet but I have a feeling he won't get much respect.He is on the fringe with MMM for me,






Of course if it rains disregard all of this

[foryourhandicap]

"like the way he finished in the Derby after taking the widest route of everyone turning for home."

Rosario is on him, expect it going wide again.

[mrginandtonic]

He is the 2-1 favorite and will probably go down to around 8-5.Of course he is the horse to beat but at those odds you are taking the worst of it.

I'm trying to find another to beat him too, but on paper, I really don't see another horse that can match his figures. None of the runners have run back to back triple digit beyer speed figure or even a triple digit (except for Shackleford). All of the runners have lost in big races (except for Shackleford who now is way outside). I don't see a fast pace to this Belmont which I think will be to AK's benefit. AK had to make up too much during the Preakness and by all means he almost did it. Shackleford and MoH ran 6th and 5th in the Derby, so I kinda expect more from MoH. With the inside post and Gomez on board, I believe he will give AK a run for the money. Afterall, he got a Racing Post Rating of 115 which is not bad for a two year old. These are definitely my top picks as of now, will look more later.

[rthoughton]

When I read through people's breakdowns, it becomes more and more apparent who knows nothing about horse racing.
I do, tho, enjoy the banter. Love the strong opinions, but especially love it that none of you really know who you're talking to. Haha. Love it.

With that being said, I don't like shack from the 12 either. But that horse showed me something in the Preakness. I would not be surprised...
Master of hounds is interesting to me, I said that from the beginning, but some of these other turds being tossed in top3s or whatever have me just shakin my head.
4-1 on Nehro is looking really nice to me. My personal fave post was the guy breaking down Nehro to Alexander. Classic.
Good luck guys, and keep me posted. I'm still without Internet until Tom.

[mikemca]

Let me guess this is your top 4

Nehro
Animal Kingdom
Master of Hounds
Shackleford


Thats fine but anyone reading a newspaper would come up with that .The object of parimutual betting is to go against public opinion.

[Gremlin Lad]

My two favorite set of 3 numbers are ..... 5-2-7 and 6-4-2.

Could be useable combinations in this year's edition of the Belmont stakes.

Might have to make it a card game with "2s" wild.

Anyway...

Good Luck in your selections

[AlexanderNehro]

I dont care how much rest nehro has he wont go the distance and ak and mmm can. MMM was not at his limit going 10 panels. Watch the replay. nehro could not keep up with ak and was shortning up when mmm was coming on, another 1/2 mmm goes by nehro and moh does to.

I dont see how you can say he would have been the derby winner with an early move ak went by him like he wasnt even there.

Nehro was not shortening up during the Derby Tony. I've watched the replay countless times. Ritvo is pulling at straws right now and shouldn't even enter this horse into the Belmont. His campaign has been brutal and he had his worst performance to date (6th) in his last race which was the shortest of the TC.

Also, look at the LA and ARK derbies Tony before you criticize Nehro's 2nd place finish in the KY derby. AK went by EVERY horse in the derby Tony including Nehro because he had an immaculate ride from Johnny V. Nehro is never that close to the pace, closes well (just like AK) and is bred for longer distances. Nakatani moved him before they even turned for home and the ONLY reason for that was because of the slow pace. The fact that he even stayed up for 2nd after that early of a move shows how much of a horse he is. He skipped the Preakness for the right reasons Tony. He has 5 weeks rest now and his pedigree loves the distance (See Mineshaft's crop and AP Indy's belmont win) and Nakatani will not make the same mistake. But go ahead and bet on MMM, because he can get the distance at 1 1/2 and Nehro can't.

[AlexanderNehro]

Let me guess this is your top 4

Nehro
Animal Kingdom
Master of Hounds
Shackleford


Thats fine but anyone reading a newspaper would come up with that .The object of parimutual betting is to go against public opinion.

Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Master of Hounds
Animal Kingdom

The public opinion is correct on 3 of the 4 horses you mentioned unfortunately.

Hopefully the shipping back and forth and ambiguity of Master of Hounds will raise his price a little. The 1 spot is actually a nice spot to have in the Belmont as he can ride the rail and doesn't have to go wide to make any music.

Brilliant Speed's question isn't the distance it is the surface. Hopefully with 7 fewer horses to deal with he can get a better trip. Like the stamina though.

Nehro is fresh and is bred for the distance. Anyone that says he can't handle anything over 1 1/8 needs to look at the pedigree and racing style. While he is 1 for 6, he is ALWAYS there. Better timing from Nakatani= Carnations.

Animal Kingdom has broken the 100 Beyer mark his last two races and was 1/2 length short of competing for a Triple Crown. There is no reason or excuse not to include him in your exotics. Had an above average work and is bred just like Nehro for the distance. Only factor is the multiple races, and the fact that he was almost forced to enter because of Shack's camp talking shit.