Strong Play

[MoneylineExpress]

Hollywood Race 3
#2 Knucklebuster W/P

1st timer that should be flying. Will take a hard look at in the post parade.

[callmejrk1]

wonder how this done i guess no good

[oakas]

still running

[Jerm3462]

wonder how this done i guess no good

That horse didn't even show.

Guess it wasn't that strong of a play afterall.

[zebra58]

germ you going to enter the 6 point contest today? need more players i'm trying to build my points

[dise-pa]

just because I can help!!!!!

[str]

Would like to point something out to you guys.

Betting a first time starter to place is CRAZY.
Work up any betting model you wish but they will all point to this as a complete waste of money.
Betting on firsters to win is a weak enough investment in itself except in the rarest of situations. Betting them to place is gambling suicide.
Solid advise. Hope you use it.
Thanks.

[JakeLc]

I will look at first-starters when the horses that have run haven't run close to par. In that case the first starter doesn't have to be much to win the race.
Too add some data to what STR posted, I looked at 10,229 first starters that were 3 and up. Some races will of course have more than one first -timer and I didn't use 2yos because those races are loaded with first-timers.
10229 first- timers
win% 8
win+plc% 15
win ROI $1.34/2.00
win+plc ROI $1.26/2.00

[thezbar]

Would like to point something out to you guys.

Betting a first time starter to place is CRAZY.
Work up any betting model you wish but they will all point to this as a complete waste of money.
Betting on firsters to win is a weak enough investment in itself except in the rarest of situations. Betting them to place is gambling suicide.
Solid advise. Hope you use it.
Thanks.

If possible I use horses with form over first time starters. If I'm spreading in exotic's and its a weak race I'll include first timers. i won't bet serious money on any first timer however. Too many things can go wrong. Betting to place is silly unless there is an advantage to be found by the various amounts wagered win / vs place pool. As a general rule of thumb I need to see at least a 3/1 ratio to even consider the place pool.

[MrExacta]

I will play firsters sometimed too. Lots of value although little to look at most of the time

[str]

I will play firsters sometimed too. Lots of value although little to look at most of the time

Would only consider them if the trainer has a solid win % with firsters and/ or the dam and to a lesser extent , the sire, has thrown multiple first time winners.
Would be looking for an outsideish post position in a one turn race . Even more so if coming out of a chute.