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I had been puzzled till today why I had not had a bad day (have had bad losing streaks, but always wins to rescue the situation). Considering these are high odds (for me) bets, I should have had a bad day out of 9. I also bet the UK races (favorites and 2nd favorites) and occasionally have terrible days (0/8) at low odds. So I was puzzled ... till today. So far an awful day, even getting better than true odds and some great opportunities. Nothing has come thru. That's probability for you.Comment -
I believe a suspension was warranted as well. The length of 14 days is 100% a message being sent to a bug boy who is still learning to ride.
I would hope that the Stewards where capable of helping to teach the rider some of the finer points of riding. I know the rest of the riders there can. And if you watch the gallop out, a couple of different riders are talking at length as they pull up.
This is a great learning moment for the bug boy. The horse he was on created a series of problems for the rider to deal with. I know that watching horses lead legs is difficult to see until it isn't. But if you watch closely, this horse switches to it's right lead BEFORE it straightens away for home. If you watch just the front legs, the horse looks like it is running funny, almost like it is jumping or hopping , not running as it turns for home. Almost like it is running sideways a bit. That is the centrifugal force pulling the horse outwards on the left hand turn.
It reminds me of being behind a car on the road that has a bent frame but still runs. The back tires are slightly off center from the front tires. So it goes down the street at about 11:27 if you are looking at the clock hands. Slightly to one side or another but not equal.
That though is not the problem. Because it switched leads early, the horse as it digs in past the 1/8th pole , switches BACK to it's left lead at 1:29 on the replay I'm watching, moving the horse to the left 3-4 feet, then back to the right lead at 1:30 moving the horse to the outside 3-4 feet and back to the left lead again at 1:34 moving the horse inward but the rider is moving the horse outward. The head on will really help you see this better . I am on NYRA bets and the split screens they give you are GREAT.
So as confusing as all that is, The bug boy switched to his left hand with the stick and THAT really screwed him up. He could not anticipate the late lead switching his mount did. But going left handed will typically push a horse out. the left hand and the left lead, then right lead stuff had the horse all over the place.
So what is the bottom line?
Having caused a spill last month, the Stewards are most likely sensitive towards a bug rider trying to ride like Irad does. Pretty simple to figure that a top of his game pro is more efficient at riding close and doing subtle things to make life tough on his opponents. And while Irad can pull it off, a bug boy is not there yet. The Stewards are making that kid understand that. Thus, the over reaction IMO.
This used to happen all the time with the Stewards schooling bug riders. I don't seem to see it that much anymore but maybe I'm just not close enough to it.
In the end, the older riders will rally around the bug boy and show him the film and take him under their wings in all the good ways. At least that is the opportunity that is presenting itself because of the harsh penalty. They will explain to him that he MUST have control of his mount and you can't get cute when your horse is switching back and forth. There is no way the kid was ready for that to happen. But it did happen.
He will know better how to deal with that next time. And do remember that there are so many things going on at that point of a tight race to the wire. The bug boy was not prepared for those lead changers to occur. Live and learn.
The erratic lead switching by the green running horse made the job very tough on the bug boy but he will learn a lot from it. And if the older riders go to bat for him, and really help him better understand, all this is a great teaching moment IMO.
Hope all that makes sense guys.
Actually a real odd situation of lead switching that you don't see very often.
Follow up if you want to. Happy to help if needed.
Oh, and one last thing. That bug boy can ride !Comment -
OK STR THX for your take. Interesting analysis. I am hoping NYRA BETS is open to NC Residents come 2024. I assume you would recommend them? THX.Comment -
This is great str, thanks. You’re great at teaching many facets of the game.
The horse was all over the place and it really made it tough for Torres as you mentioned with the multiple lead switching. Torres was struggling. I will definitely go back and watch that race after I get back from vacation. And yes, Torres can ride, as I’m curious to see how he’ll do at the Spa. Thanks again.Comment -
With the method of betting that you are trying to play into, any particular "day" has no bearing at all, as I'm sure you know. A day is just a period of time. What you are playing into is something that over time statistically speaking, should work. So if you lose 100 in a row over time, you will win 18-20 and it should all even out over time. I don't think you can measure this by days, weeks, or even months. You can keep score any way that is convenient but when it comes to betting a particular sport, your numbers should be in sub sets of years but have one number after decades.
Maybe that does not work for some but it does for me. I have every sport broken out by day or week through the year or season, then added to the sum total of years since 1980. Each category has a total of all years. Basically, I keep each year and a grand total of every category of sport except the small stuff. I lump those novelty bets into one category. Like the hot dog eating contest . Lol. Yep. I bet it. Won like 40.00 bucks. Have not bet it since. Doubt I ever will again but all those silly bets need to land somewhere for a final total. Of course, I am a lunatic with numbers and keeping score so don't mind me if it sounds crazy. Probably is.
So IMO, don't worry about any particular day. Just try and fine tune what you are working with and the time you can dedicate towards it.
Over time, you can probably eliminate several plays that long term do not pan out but you must allow the test of time to answer that for you. Not a few days or even weeks IMO.
Keep us posted. GL.Last edited by str; 07-07-23, 08:08 AM.Comment -
Thanks Jelly !
I try to help people see these types of things because when they can, it opens the experience up to a whole new level.
Understanding why things happen is such an advantage in anything, when you know it.
That's why I always try and say, feel free to follow up.
Let me know once you see that replay. In the meantime, hope the vacation is going well.
All the best !Comment -
hey str
expensive 2yo army mule firster going at belmont tomorrow
R5 #9 haul (2-1)
pletcher trained..probably an underlay but we like to see them regardless..especially the new crop
interesting he was working at saratoga and decided to send him down..probably be a lot easier field than he'd meet up thereComment -
he probably can "haul ass" ..perfect name for one of his offspring lolComment -
worth mentioning an army mule was involved in a dead heat at the Iowa derby and was rightfully placed 2nd as he bore out more than a little lol in the stretch..very game,as they often are, on the front end though .. amazing thing was the horse who was put up is trained by asmussen and was 48-1 how many times you get him in a stakes at those odds !! $1 ex paid $489Comment -
also there is a 2yo fts by AM running in the 3rd at ellis park ..2 turns on the turf..babies starting to grow up
#6 backstretch rose (9-2) 1:43Comment -
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Man. Pay the stud fee and sell for about 23 times that cost. How sweet is that. And... He's most likely worth it. That's crazy.
They all run. Irad would not be on him if he couldn't.
Thanks for the heads up JBEX. I'll watch.
And GREAT name. Lol. Not sure they would accept it but worth a try. And yep, I'm sure it would.Comment -
I would say my only disagreement with your philosophy is that each bet is made manually and the individual losses begin to mount psychologically. Probability says it should all 'work out in the end' but that's a tough road to hoe while it's happening. And it did happen the last few days, so I will put this on hold for now. I believe I was getting much better than true odds (20% above ; according to the local bettors) on nearly every bet made, but without winners it's all totally meaningless. I was often getting (had I won) a payout of $7.50 on a roll of a dice, rather than the fair $6 on a $1 bet. Can't ask for more than that ... but the losing went on and on and on. I could only laugh. Even betting a reasonable 2% of bankroll, and I pretty much went kaput over 2 days. I may do a simulation of what the odds were this could happen. I know there was that case in Monte Carlo where Black came up 26 times in a row, my situation wasn't quite that bad lol. Certainly I admit that the odds being played (4/1 to 10/1) can incur long losing streaks, but it was surprising to experience it. So back to the 'safer' UK favorites and 2nd favorites for now.
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might as well update with some data. For payouts from 5.0 to 12.0 I was a bit over break-even, for the 13 days, making 353 bets. About $2900 returned on $2800 bet. The disaster was early losses over 12.0, as I was gauging the situation. Almost no winners there. Surprisingly below 5.0 was also losing, on a decent # of bets.
So I'd say with a sample size of 353, perhaps the Betfair bettors do find the correct odds (and the local bettors over-estimate those horses where there's a disagreement), since in theory that should be break-even (just betting randomly and taking the BSP) and I was a bit over break-even and getting very close to the BSP. It's always been said the BSP reflects 'true' odds and perhaps its true.Comment -
If you are playing into a long term winning proposition, absolutely, the losses will affect your thinking if you let it. And it can be very difficult to not let it sometimes. But if the decision was made to play long term, emotions cannot have a place to exist. Easier said than done. A lot easier said than done. It can be extremely difficult. And because it is at times, it would seem that refining or restricting plays to a certain parameter would be optimum. But finding that parameter will take some time. And that probably means some losses in order to achieve. If that truly is the objective, you probably need to set an amount in your head that you are willing to lose in order to gain the correct parameters in which to play in. Kind of like paying for information.
We have all done that in out gambling lives. Nobody starts betting has knows what they are actually doing wrong. But if they learn from their mistakes, that should be money well spent. It is an education. Those aren't free very often. You have to fail to eventually succeed in most things. But it is worth it IMO, if you have a long term goal and stick with it.
You have already put in a lot of time and effort. And if you are down currently the question has to be: Are you smarter now than when you started and if so, would you have pay those losses in advance to have gained what you have? If the answer is yes, it has been a success so far.
I think from a sanity stand point that is how you need to look at it. Just my opinion.
Also a question. If the 12-1 and higher has had a bad ROI, perhaps the gap between odds and true odds needs to be larger for that subset due to the fact that they will win less to begin with. Maybe scrutinize those plays within themselves? Just a thought but you would have to tell me.
Lastly, no surprise that locals over are wrong more than Betfair. Betfair is a business. Locals are many different types of people that typically gravitate to lower odds and over bet horses due to the fact that they are day players here and there.
Good luck and as you continue, keep us posted. Really hopeful you find a niche within this that works for you.
And if you don't, nobody can say it was because of a lack of effort.
All the best.Comment -
surprised in the 4 to 10-1 range with about a 20% edge you could go bad at 2% of bank per bet... if your avg odds is 7-1 (12.5%) BE and you figure with the edge you should be hitting at around 15% of the time seems pretty safe to me.. at 1.5% it should definitely be.. personally I don't trust the odds with the locals as much when they get into double digits plus you are increasing the risk of longer runoutsComment -
the easy conclusion is that Betfair is correct (explaining the break-even after 353 bets, betting randomly at essentially BSP). In that case there is no area to exploit: the locals are just 'wrong' when there's a major disagreement about a horse in mid-range odds. As far as the higher odds situation, when the local bettors true odds were 10, I was getting 14 on Betfair. But virtually nothing was winning above 12 on Betfair on the bets I made (I'm sure there were the expected # of winners at 12 or higher, I simply wasnt betting those).
I did create some scripts to download info from Twinspires (they post Official Pool data), and getting the BSP from Betfair is published on a site. So I will probably compile a couple weeks more of data to see if things would have been different. If the results I had on the 5th,6th, and 8th (8th: 2 wins, 45 bets ; 30 of which were 5.0-10.0, a few above and below that as well) were a probabilistic aberration ,then maybe the locals are right. I was doing quite well as of the 4th, so either that was lucky or the 3 bad days were major outliers.
but is there an edge? If Betfair is correct, the perceived 20% edge is an illusion. Betfair and the locals matched up very well on almost all horses (the major difference were the high odds horses, you could get 20 on Betfair whereas the locals 'true' odds were often 12 or 14). The one horse in mid-range odds they differed on was the focus.Last edited by jamesrav; 07-10-23, 04:30 PM.Comment -
The results for The three Army Mules mentioned were:
The first won was an easy debut winner
The second was dq’ed from 1st to 2nd in the Iowa Derby
The 3rd one got beat going long on the grass by a nose and a head.
Just another day at the office for Army Mule.Comment -
WEATHER - Thunderstorms are possible, let’s hope not, but if the main track begins totake on any significant amount of water, please go slow! Remember, wagering onsloppy or muddy tracks is just not the wisest thing. Certain areas of the track puddle upmore than others affecting certain running lanes, while some horses love the slop andwater, an example? I have a mare here at the ranch who was 3 for 3 in the slop backeast, loved it, romping easily. When it rains here, guess which mare is the one frolickingin the mud? Running around like a school child at recess while the others watch andlook at her like she’s crazy. Some horses just love the stuff, others not as much, do WEknow which runners will prefer the off track when they’ve yet to race over it? Hoof size isalso a factor, and the bottom line is, the number of variables when it comes to an offtrack, just do not justify the risk-reward.
Hey STR: do you agree with the sentiments expressed in the above synopsis? I personally like capping Wet tracks but can understand the point of view here. When you were capping do you avoid sloppy tracks or did you find an edge? THX.Comment -
I don't mind playing an off track either. You adjust, or add to, what all you are looking for. That's it.
I'm glad to hear that you do like playing wet tracks. And while I guess I understand what the writer is saying to a degree, if that works for that person fine, but I would never consider that opinion for myself. Glad you don't either.
I never avoided an off track when I was capping. And yes, I looked for an edge. You don't always find one, but when you do, it's a
" Hello old friend" moment. And because it is pari-mutuel, you are playing against people that don't look or know to look for certain things.
Sometimes a huge bias can exist, not because of the wet but because the maintenance crew pushed more dirt off the inside to keep it from running off, or didn't and the inside is bogged down. You have to know where to look and what to look for. Some horses might really move up in the slop or can't handle that slop. Just like the post said. But isn't that valuable info? I would never run from solid information. So, it is kind of contradicting to say it the way the statement did. Just my opinion.
I know you have read a lot of this thread. But for those that haven't, there is plenty of talk in this thread about off tracks and what to look for.
Key search is you friend in this 12 year old thread.
Thanks EZ.
Counting down to the NFL right? Of course you are. I know I am.
All the best.Comment -
I read where Kingsbarns will be shut down for the summer and point for a 4 year old return.
The main reason given was a loss of weight. When that happens, and it is significant enough to talk about it, the horse is generally fighting something. What? We don't always know. Sometimes, it's easy to know. But with no knowledge of what is going on, I have no idea.
So as disappointed as I am, I will hope that whatever it is clears up and the horse can start back fresh in the late fall.
I do think he has more talent than has been shown so far. I also think the time off will really help him mentally. He needs to reset and be where he was between his ears in his 1st race and moving forward and not his last two races. And add to that the bout of colic, which can never help .
At least with time off, he will be given every chance to succeed. THAT is a real good thing.
Sure hope he does.Comment -
thanks for the update str
with the nature of his last two races, I agree with you that physically and mentally a rest and reset makes a lot of sense..obviously the primary issue of whatever caused his weight loss initiated it (and hopefully he's ok) but the silver lining is he might comeback as a better horse as a 4yo..if there's a good fit maybe they'll start him off at gulfstream where he won his debut..I think there's a lot of upside potential and hopefully we'll get to see it next yearComment -
Thanks for the update on Kingsbarns. I enjoy reading you guys updates. I was not aware and hope he comes back healthy. Did I hear that Disarm is pointed to the Jim Dandy?Comment -
Hey STR: Last night at the Mountain R8 I saw a horse running with a collar around his neck. I have seen that before but very rarely. What is that called and what is the purpose? THX.Comment -
That leather piece is difficult to see exactly what it is. I cannot see where it is attached.
If it was attached to the girth from a strap between the horses front legs, it would be a breastplate. That would be used to help keep the saddle from slipping back. Used on a very narrow length and thickness wise horse. But I really can't see that here so I'm not sure.
If attached to the reigns , but I could not see that either , it would be a Martingale. That is used to help keep the horses head from raising upwards too far. You might see a shadow roll as well which is the fuzzy thing over their nose and usually white, red or blue.
( Ever try running as fast as you can with your head up? Trust me, it's ugly to see, hard to do, and you are much slower.).It is probably that although I can't be positive. That horse did indeed run with it's head up and the rider, hopeful that it was the kickback of dirt angled off the inside to the 6 path before the turn to avoid the dirt hopeful that the dirt was the problem. Didn't help.
There is also what's called a neckstrap but that is pony club stuff that gives the rider extra security.
I have no idea why that would be on a race horse. Hopefully it wasn't that.
Because it was flopping all over the place, it did not look attached to anything. And the horse was so far back late you really couldn't see much. If not attached to anything , it was ridiculous IMO.
And my apologies to that horses connections if it was attached to something. It was so loose though, not sure what was going on.
So in review the breastplate helps keep the saddle from slipping
The Martingale gives the rider more leverage to control the horses head from raising. I used a martingale on every horse of mine that was galloped or jogged towards the outside fence the wrong way in the morning. (It was important that a horse did not flip it's head up, grab the bit and run off a mile or two. If so, that would suck as well and ruin any race upcoming for a couple of weeks potentially, at least in my head if not both the horses and mine.
The neck strap is like training wheels for an insecure rider. I can't imagine it was that but it IS the mountain. Never say never up there. I've seen some crazy stuff there and Charles Town. Lol.
I never ran a horse in a race, ever, in any of those things. If the saddle had slipped in the mornings or when they ran or were very long in scope and skinny looking, we would use a channel girth. You might see that in the paddock being put on. It goes underneath the two girths that are being put on by the trainer and the valet when first saddled . Either foam or rubber, they really help in preventing a saddle from slipping back. When the jockey dismounts, he typically hands it to the groom if you want to see one.
Never felt I needed to use a breastplate. I was also taught to ask the valet for "sponge first" which hardly anyone did when I trained, meaning the spongey foam that is put on before the saddle as a cushion. Usually the valet throws up the saddle towel with the number up first. Then the weight if required and the foam. My mentor asked for sponge first EVERY time. When I asked about that, ( I asked about EVERYTHING), Dickie's answer was " we can wait to get beat with a slipped saddle or we can use the sponge first and never have to deal with it!" Yes sir.
Not a lot of words from Dickie. But it was always in your best interest to listen and learn when those words did flow. He was rarely wrong when it came to horse racing.
Hope that helps EZ.
All the best !Comment -
THX STR an education for sure for me with the info you provided.Comment -
Totally my pleasure EZ. Kind of fun to think back to my pre trainer as well as trainer days . Tony D., who was my foreman for awhile and then at the other division of horses after that, and I almost always go back to those days and remember something we laugh about that went on. A horse, an employee, something. Great memories to recall.
Appreciate the question my friend.Comment -
Yeah STR your thread is a win win for both you and your customers so to speak. The thread keeps you involved in the game on some level and let's you give back to the horse playing public. And for the players you have helped us understand the game a lot more which should translate into better results at the track. In addition, the game is much more enjoyable when you understand the game like you do. THX for keeping this thread going for as long as you have.Comment -
I'm sure most all here know this site. I go here occassionally. Just under the chance anyone doesn't know, it's a quick take on upcoming stakes race entries.
Stakes (horseracingnation.com)Comment
