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I get that they are needing to comment on every horse and what might have hindered them was trying to beat the favorite ( at the time they wrote their columns). Commenting like that is never easy.
Not agreeing on unproven "in stressful spots" as he dueled into an albeit slow 1/2 before dominating and he warmed up washy, with the outside post, broke poorly etc, etc.
I understand bounce when it comes to handicapping but not having the benefit of seeing what is up with the horse afterwards.
But, it is the end all for excuses and often times while the rating of the race is correct the true reason for it is not. So Beyer, etc. called it this intangible thing that groups everything that happens in to this mystical word of bounce. I could see the reason why afterwards when one of mine ran poorly off a big effort and it was rarely what Beyer thought. But he could not.
I've said and will always say that about 1 in 5 horses that are called "bounce" actually bounce from a previous effort. When I see a horse warm up washy when he typically does not, it's not because he ran great last out vey often if ever. It's something else but gets lumped into bounce. That is incorrect. He was telling us something prior to the race and it was not that he was pissed because he was running back too soon.
That's my take on that.
Coming back quickly is a bit odd to say I think, with all due respect. He came back in the same 28 days when he won his 2nd start. As for the 42 days vs. the 28 days thing, I am an old school trainer. Coming back quick when I did this was 3-5 days. And more often than not they ran better than when typically 10-14 days. So I will never be able to adapt to the 42 days between races thing just because. Sometimes, absolutely. But more often than not, I just don't get it.
"He might not be capable of getting this distance". I think that is really what you are betting on here with him if he gets what seems to be an easy early pace.
So who knows EZ. I'll stick with my pick and hope he warms up well, looks the part and get the trip the form suggests he should get.
Barber Road- I saw the gate work and Blinkers off and was quite intrigued. I like the effort on the trainer part and it would not surprise me to see him run well. Only thing I didn't like was he drew the far outside. That had to frustrate the trainer . He wants him to be closer to the pace off that gate work and relaxed. He should relax but the outside post might negate the closer thing.
If I was forced to take a swing at a more subtle horse to win, pretty sure it would be him.
Hope all that makes sense.
Again, best of luck EZ.Comment -
OK STR THX again. Always good to have your opinions on the major races. Good luck to you. see what happens. My gut vibe is that someone puts early pressure on WE the People. Not sure who just a vibe. OK enjoy the race.Comment -
Str I just got some broodmares sorry to be so direct , but can you PM RUDY ROD Teams #? My partner owns some khozan’s also
tyComment -
hey str
parx 5:41
R11 #2 get the w (7-2) **
thought you'd get a kick out of this one..9 years old and quite a turnaround from last year lol
** playing a different one for quick lookers
# 8 jw's third mischie (10-1)Comment -
I don't have his number. I would suggest to either leave him a message at the Belmont stable gate or you can get a jocks agent number out of the condition book , call one that rides for Rudy and give him a message to have Rudy contact you or whoever needs to talk to him.
Sorry I can't help more.
All the best Kid !Comment -
so my horse battles on the front and gives it up very quickly..
"get the w" (9-2 final) misses by a nose to the same trainer's other horse who pays $50..the other horse also was a reclaim..the owner of both is "lee stable" and that's the trainer's last name so guess it's him or maybe a family operation..probably the former
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Rudy just claimed and won in 100k the one I wanted few days backComment -
hey str
belmont
R10 #9 left on boylston (15-1)
found this one a little interesting.. for starters, as we both know, trainer is a dick dutrow disciple and she is having an excellent meet.. solid numbers factoring roi off short layoffs and on turf over a sizeable sample
2 starts.. a mcl $20k then mcl $40k and now bring him back in a turf marathon vs msw's.. expressing some confidence in the horse wouldn't you say? .. i have always liked even runs at middle distances to stretch out to a marathon and that is exactly what this horse has done in his only 2 races .. also like that according to the brisnet pace figures he was on avg 4 lengths off a pace that was 8 lengths fast
training very steady since that last race with a 4f, four 5f's and winding down with a 4f and a 3f.. maybe you could shed some light on that relative to running this far
what do you think?Last edited by JBEX; 06-17-22, 10:08 PM.Comment -
Definitely expressing confidence but probably also looking for a long distance. As you know, I have long talked about 3rd race as a young horse being a Dutrow disciple key. We all learned the same way and barring it being a very different baby before starting, that is typically a stronger effort than the first two just on knowledge the horse has gained. That works here as well.
This horses last two works seem to have been a wakeup of sorts. Look at all of them listed and the last two stand out. That might lend a hand in this as well.
I have to think the horse was doing a 2 minute clip for a bit before picking it up and finishing those 1/2 mile works. As for the 3/8ths, that is typically just a wake up work 2-3-4 days before a race. It puts them on their toes typically.
The step up means the horse will have to improve more than just a little to win, but there are signs that point to that as a decent possibility.
All things considered, I like the play. I think this one has a chance to be higher than 15-1 . In my mind, well worth a play at what should be a nice price. Like I said before, at that price, you don't have to win many of them to be well ahead.
Win or lose, nice job digging this one out. I love finding these types at a big price.
GL JBEX.Comment -
Hey STR: Watching Fox sports coverage of the Canterbury Card tonight. Maggie Wolfendale is the paddock reporter. She is one of the best if not the best in the business IMO. I think you mentioned before that you were friends with her Dad? Was he a trainer as well? and I assume you have met her too? THX.Comment -
str thank you for sharing, also loved the videos from some other posters in this thread. I hope you don't mind me asking a question in here as I am not well versed in horse racing.
It would seem to me that the postgame analysis is so often lacking when a team or horse misfires. I wonder if emotions or other things get in the way of actually seeing why something occurred and making the proper adjustments.
We the People that lost in the Belmont, what happened there if you wouldn't mind me asking?Comment -
I've known Maggie her whole life. Her mom and dad, Howard and Tammy were good friends when I trained. We knew one another well before Maggie was born. We go waaay back. Maggie and my youngest son went to school together and Howard and I shared a barn at Laurel in my final few years. Howard no longer trains I don't think but let me say this for the record. If I was ever going to own claiming horses in Md. again, and Howard was around, he would be right at the top of trainers I would want to train my horses. He did more with less at an incredible rate. Both he and Tammy worked their butts off and the results showed that. Maggie would run around the barn when she was still in diapers. You can look up Howard Wolfendale on equibase.com . He was really good with the claimers EZ. And, he wasn't cheating like several of the "sharp guys" were.
In 2013, twelve years after I left training, I was at Saratoga visiting Tony Dutrow and we are leaving after the last race on Whitney day. As we started out of the gate, I hear a voice holler out my name from the paddock in the back. It's Maggie. She comes running over and gives me a big hug. We talked for about 5 minutes and the first thing I told her was how proud I was of her and what she was doing. She is exactly the same person off air as she is on air. A pleasure to be around always. We have not seen each other since but I welcome the opportunity to run into her again. What a wonderful person she is. And now Tammy has a grandchild that I am sure makes her smile everyday.
Last thing I will say about her is that I can only hope that the Blue Bloods that run Hall Of Fame realize that Maggie has changed the course of in house handicapping and taught a million people that there is more talk going on in the paddock from the horses speaking without the use of words than players could have ever imagined. She has reinvented the game for fans and if anyone deserves initiation into the Horse Racing Hall of Fame, it is Maggie. She's the gold standard of experts that talk about upcoming races. She's THAT good.
Thanks EZ. Always fun to recall the olden days.
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OK STR thx for the run down on the Wolfendale's. Yeah Maggie seems like like a cool and real good peoples. Really Like her on air persona. Glad to hear she is the same off camera.
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Glad to hear Maggie is a genuine person. I don't think everyone on TV is good when it comes to horses, but she's always been top notch in all aspects in my novice eyes.Comment -
It's great to see you check in Ra77er. I'm glad that you enjoyed me breaking down those videos. Hopefully they help the players see things they might miss. And I will never mind you asking. Please continue to do so. I'm here to help anyone that wants to learn more about the game. I guess it's my way of giving back to a game that gave me plenty.
When it comes to people that can really explain things, often times they are hesitant to discuss the details because a horses overall health is always a guarded commodity. Some handicappers honestly, from what I hear, just do not know. But the ones that do speak very broadly and without getting to the real problem. I think I get that , in that, they do not want to anger the connections . After all, they work close by and getting the wrong person or owner angry could cost you your job.
The jocks in N.Y. I hear tell it pretty straight forward which is great to hear and the trainers, well they kind of talk in code. I did that as well. You just don't talk much about your horse or as little as possible. It's something you learn early on.
Of course, some trainers are flat out phonies. I can't stand them. And if you have read this thread, the suspended one tops that list. He's a "look at me" guy. Not my kind of guy.
But me, I can see plenty and I have no problem saying what I see. And while a certain amount has to be speculation because I have no contact with the horse, most times, it's kind of obvious. I'm not competing with anyone, I'm trying to relay info to handicappers like you and the other guys in here..
Case in point was the thread Opti had in the horse section a week or two ago. If you saw it you know what I'm talking about but if not, go check it out and the videos of that horses two races in Europe. It was obvious on tape that the horse he was referring to became uncomfortable by seeing him switch leads back and forth right when the hard running started. He was quite washy as well. Rarely a good sign unless they always do it. (Seattle Slew comes to mind there). I don't know exactly what it was, but at least we knew WHY the horse stopped running. Most times, that's all a handicapper needs to know.
As for We The People, again, with no seeing the horse post race or in training since, IMO, which is somewhat limited because of what I just mentioned, The Belmont was his to win once the race started. Anyone that picked him, myself included, had gotten all they could have asked for. An easy lead without getting fired up early and very slow early fractions. It was a dream trip. But that was totally expected from the form. What anyone who bet on him was actually betting was, can he get a mile and a half? And the answer we all found out was, no, he cannot get that distance. It was not a bounce. He just ran out of air. He was plenty fit. No excuses IMO. He just cannot go that far. And that's ok. Looks like he certainly gets a fast mile and maybe 1 1/8th. Not positive about that though.
I, again IMO, don't really feel that the winner " ran him down" or anything like that. He ran out of gas. Period.
Proof of that was the filly who finished 2nd, was in 2nd all the way around the track. She CAN go that far but her breeding suggested that so not a real surprise. The winner ran his typical race and was able to sustain his run at a longer distance. He ran really well. But is he a horse that can't lose when he runs back? Heck no. His running style will always have him at the mercy of the pace.
I hope that makes sense. Feel free to follow up if not.
Going forward, if you ever have a question, fire away. And if it has a video to go with it, all the better. That helps me explain frame by frame but also allows others to see it as well.
If you have a question, you know where to find me.
All the best Ra77er.Comment -
THX for the take STR on Ra77er's question. Great insight. You are STR the "Players Advocate."Comment -
Anytime EZ.
I forgot to add one other thing to the bounce NOT happening with We The People.
If you watch him running through the stretch after he has been past by two horses, he duels for 3rd place from the 1/8th pole home. He never stops trying. He just has very limited lung capacity at that point. But the effort is surely there.
Bounce is supposed to be quit, give up, not run your race, etc. I saw none of that here. Just my opinion, as is the fact that that word is so overused. It is the excuse when you don't know what really happened.Comment -
When they say "Temp rail set at xx feet' I always assumed that to mean they moved it in to let the grass recover. Is that the case? I figure all it would really change is the severity of the turns. Does this really ever affect a horse? I can't imagine its as severe as going from a mile track to a bull ring no matter where its set.
Do European horses in America care that they are running and turning in a different direction?
4 for 6 at Belmont today, thanks largely to this thread. Somehow just got 11 - 1 on Irad horse that loves running at Belmont (horse for the course). 13 - 1 on My Girl Lexi earlier. Thank you sir!Last edited by BetMiddler; 06-24-22, 03:47 PM.Comment -
str first I wanted to say you are a blessing to the horse racing community and this forum. Reading through some of your older posts and the information you have provided not just in regards to handicapping but the sport as a whole. It is a lot of information to assimilate and consider and I appreciate you taking the time to educate anyone who wishes to be a student of the game.
My question should have been phrased more of why doesn't horse A win rather than a specific horse. While there is tons of pre race work to be done (as you have elegantly illustrated throughout your posting) to include big picture views all the way down to wraps on the horses front legs, I was curious to the post race analysis and if a good horsemen knows through experience fairly quickly why a horse failed or not. Sharing specific information obviously not always a good idea but was just curious in a broader sense.
Thank you for answering this and somehow easily understanding what I was asking (I tend to be misunderstood). My apologies to anyone that thinks I have drifted out of my starting gate so to speak and have brought something non valuable to this thread. I find that reading and researching many things can help illuminate other unexpected areas of ones journey.
str, be well, thank you again
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hey str
through reading it somewhere decades ago (maybe the sheets) I equate each path wide on the turn to be worth approximately a length of lost ground..comment on a horse i had yesterday was 3-4 wide on the turn and 7 wide into the lane..is there any way to equate the latter part into overall ground lost ? my guess would be it seems like a lot more than it really is ..maybe could be estimated by the pythagorean theorum a² +b² = c²
(b)100 yards ² ..10000
(a) 20 yards ² .. 400
square root of 10400 is 101.9 so it would be about 2 yards extra being 20 yards further out over the course of traveling 100 yards which I believe equates to about 3/4 of a length..realize it doesn't happen that uniformly but at least you have something that puts you in the ballparkComment -
there is an army mule fts at cd ..R2 #3 dance macabre (10-1)Comment -
Sorry for the delay. I will get caught up asap .
Going to answer the time sensitive one now.Comment -
OMG, what a race ! I thought it would be hard to get past Lucas with the 1 horse but plenty of these look like potential killers.
On paper you have to think this horse might be an after thought with some of the crazy works and firster winning sires. Whew.
This race is loaded with potential.
I wouldn't know where to start. Now from a purely gambling standpoint, I would probably watch the board, check Daily Double " will pays" to see if any horses are over bet compared to the " will pay" prices, but have to think other players have a bigger edge in the race going in than I would. So I would only play this race small if any. But I would pay a lot of attention. This could very well become a "key race" and I would want to have seen it.
Going to be fun to watch an Army Mule for sure.
Thanks JBEX !Comment -
no problem str
like asmussen and brad cox's with a lean towards the former because of the multiple of the stud fee and nothing special on the dam info.. really a lot of money for those specs
only thing with lukas is he's horrible first out but this one is really bred to win early and dam sire is a sprint influence..also cost a bunch
agree with you that some future really good horses hereComment -
1st: 1 Summer Promise $8.40 $4.40 $2.40 2nd: 3 Danse Macabre $16.20 $4.80 3rd: 6 Key Of Life $2.10 4th: 7 Watch This Munny
- $1.00 EXACTA 1-3 $55.40
- $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-3-6 $88.55
- $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-3-6-7 $64.88
- $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/1 $43.10
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