Breaking Down the Kentucky Derby

[MoneylineExpress]

The field has been announced. Over the next 2 days I'll break down the field to a few contenders and hopefully 1 winner. Sometimes, the best horse wins the Kentucky Derby. But more often than not, the horse with the bigest beyer numbers, most attention from the public waltzes into Churchill Downs and beaten because of his pedigree, preparation or the bad luck that comes with being favored.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1
4. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez, 30-1
5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1
9. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano, 30-1
10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1
12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan, 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1
17. Soldat, A. Garcia, 20-1
18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1
20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano, 50-1

1st set of criteria is to eliminate any horse whose last prep race was not 1 1/8th mile. Only one horse fails and that is Derby Kitten.

2nd step and one of the most important is to throw out any horse who didn't finish 4th or better in its final prep race. Preferably 3rd or better. A horse who comes in to the race in bad form doesn't find it. Past history proves it. Dating back to 1962 no horse has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race and has worn the roses. We can safely eliminate Santiva (9th place finish in Bluegrass), Soldat (5th place finsh in the Florida derby), Stay Thirsty (7th place finish in the Florida derby), Watch Me go (6th place in the Illinois derby)

2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby 2nd
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby 4th
2008 Big Brown Florida Derby 1st
2007 Street Sense Blue Grass 2nd
2006 Barbaro Florida Derby 1st
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita D 4th
2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 1st
2003 Funny Cide Wood Mememorial 2nd
2002 War Emblem Illinois Derby 1st
2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial 2nd
2000 Fus. Pegasus Wood Memorial 1st
1999 Charismatic Lexington 1st
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita D 2nd
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita D 2nd
1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby 2nd
1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass 4th
1994 Go for Gin Wood Memorial 2nd
1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass 4th
1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby 2nd
1991 Strike the Gold Blue Grass 1st
1990 Unbridled Blue Grass 3rd
1989 Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby 1st
1988 Winning Colors Santa Anita Derby 1st
1987 Alysheba Blue Grass 3rd
1986 Ferdinand Santa Anita Derby 3rd
1985 Spend a Buck Garden State 1st
1984 Swale Lexington 2nd
1983 Sunny's Halo Arkansas Derby 1st
1982 Gato Del Sol Blue Grass 2nd
1981 Pleasant Colony Wood Memorial 1st
1980 Genuine Risk Wood Memorial 3rd
1979 Spectacular Bid Blue Grass 1st
1978 Affirmed Hollywood Derby 1st
1977 Seattle Slew Wood Memorial 1st
1976 Bold Forbes Wood Memorial 1st
1975 Foolish Pleasure Wood Memorial 1st
1974 Cannonade CD Allowance 1st
1973 Secretariat Wood Memorial 3rd
1972 Riva Ridge Blue Grass 1st
1971 Canonero II Venezuela 3rd
1970 Dust Commander Blue Grass 1st
1969 Majestic Prince CD Allowance 1st
1968 Forward Pass Blue Grass 1st
1967 Proud Clarion Blue Grass 2nd
1966 Kauai King Gov. Gold Cup 1st
1965 Lucky Debonair Blue Grass 1st
1964 Northern Dancer Blue Grass 1st
1963 Chateaugay Blue Grass 1st
1962 Decidedly Blue Grass 2nd

And the field is down to 15.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1

Next set of criteria is to throw out any horse who didn't win a race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby. We can elminate Midnight Interlude, Nehro. Nehro is also the only horse in thef field with a Dosage Index above 4. The DI is used to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. It's a stamina check. It's not perfect, but only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby (in the last 70 years) since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999], Giacomo [2005] and Mine That Bird [2009]) have had a Dosage Index above 4.00. Even though the aforementioned 5 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (20 years to be exact), the percentage of 5 out of 70 (1940-2010) is just 7% overall.

Cut the field down to 13 with confidence.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

The next set of criteria specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have been first or second with a furlong to go; otherwise, the horse gets a strike. This very important because 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole. Thats knocks out Archanarch, Brilliant Speed, and Dialed In.

The field is cut into half at 10, and I will wager dollars to doughnuts that the horse wearing the roses will come from this group. There are some juicy prices left on the board.




3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1


10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

From here points will be added to the list of 10 contenders.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old. Give points to Animal Kingdom, Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Uncle Mo.


Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if the horse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man, Uncle Mo are the only two which did not meet the criteria.

Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested. All qualify except for Uncle Mo.

Next the horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passed coming down the stretch. Strikes against Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Uncle Mo, Shackelford, Twinspired

Horses with less than 6 lifetime starts have not faired well in the derby but there has been a few winners of late. This indicates a lack of racing experience. Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 are the only ones to break this rule. Uncle Mo, Animal Kingdom, and Shackelford all lack racing experience.

Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race. This shows a horse has the class to win. Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Twinspired, and Shackelford have failed to win a graded stakes race.

Points in asteriks:

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1 *3*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*


10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1 *3*
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1 *3*

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1 *2*

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1 *2*

Eliminate: Decisive Moment, Twinspired, Master of Hounds, Shackelford, and Uncle Mo.

Remaining field (main contenders):

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

Finally its time to take account speed figures. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.

Twice Appeal - 88
Comma To The Top - 97
Pants on Fire - 97
Mucho Macho Man - 98
Animal Kingdom - 96

Don't pick a horse with a new jockey. You really need to know your horse in a race like this so it isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time. Calvin Borel jumps on Twice Appeal for the 1st time and has a poor speed figure. PVal on Comma To the Top to replace Nakatani. Trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kath Ritvo is making her first derby appearance which has not been a successful thing in the past.

That leaves Pants on Fire and Animal Kingdom as the 2 horses to use in this years derby with Mucho Macho Man, Commat to the Top, Twice Appeal and I'll throw Soldat in underneath.

I'll post official plays later on.

[Kav]

wow interesting, look forward to hearing more of your insight on the race.

[canuck]

Nice contribution. Excellent read.

[BGboothA]

Interesting read indeed....not the same way I would go about it, but I will post later my thoughts. hmmmmm

[dugbug15]

nice research,bg.i hope you get a good cash because of your intense research.you certainly deserve it.
good luck

[FrizB]

Holy Hell! This is awesome! Good luck. Looking forward to your official plays...

[Rio DiNero]

Nice write up, I think this one is wide open! I really liked Archarcharch, but hate that he drew the one hole. I will be investing in many tri's and super's mostly blind. GL.

[streak1234]

Quite thoughtful

MLX That was both an interesting and informative selection process. I am going to the Derby for the first time and rest assured that I will be following your picks with cash. Thank you again

[IamAmonkey]

very nice...I like your system...has this worked for you in the past?

[hawkwind]

Well thought out and researched !! Not on board 100% but you do give alot of food for thought.. THX

[joeyp1222]

i hope your right because my derby horse is in your top last 5 listed hope your right and hope im right

[AbeFroman]

What an outstanding write up.. Thanks for posting!

I liked Archarch but with him drawing the one hole I feel like he is going to get pinched early on and never be able to recover. That damn slant early on the rail is killer.

My horse is in your Top 5 as well.. This is going to be an exciting year!

[cecil127]

i like the way you came to your conclusion: a well thought out attack and i must say i am impressed.
i also like the fact that you and i picked the same horse to win-Pants On Fire.
even though i simply picked POF because i liked the name.
what do you expect from a harness head....
ill take your picks for an exacta box for a buck.-why the hell not? you already put more effort into cappin this race than i will by post time thats for sure...thanks

*now nobody go huge on the exacta and bottom out the odds here, ok. please.

that'll be the day.

[mikemca]

Geez everyone is on Pants On Fire since the draw.At this rate he will be 5-1 come post time.

[shocktopme]

Derby

What happened to Tobeys Corner makin the field?????

[AbeFroman]

Toby's Corner was scratched.

More info here: http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/201...-life-goes-on/

[officepoolguy]

Love the post...another factor you may want to consider is the dual qualifier horses:horses with a Dosage Index (DI) of 4.00 or less who were ranked within ten pounds of the high-weight on the Handicap.

These horses win more then their fair share.

Here is a link to the information and the horses that qualify:
http://www.bettingmarket.com/experimental.htm


Kinda like Soldat but your first criteria may sway me...any other thoughts?

[steady hustlin]

Thanks for sharing this information.

[MoneylineExpress]

Alright after digesting all this information the last day I have made some conclusions from my main contenders.

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*


The trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kathy Ritvo, has really thrown me off this horse. She has no derby experience and she isn't a good trainer to begin with. In 2011 her steeds are 2 for 50; 4% win clip. I'll have to let this one beat me because proper preparation is key. My next throw out is CommaTotheTop. Looking at this horses last 3 running lines is speed and fade in all of them. Now this horse has to go 1.25 miles against stiffer competition and in a race which looks like there will be a good amount of early speed with Decisive Moment, Pants on Fire, Shackelford, Mucho Macho Man, and Uncle Mo. Expect much of the same here.

That leaves me with Twice Appeal, Pants on Fire, and Animal Kingdom to be me keys to weather I profit this derby.

Will be back in AM with an Oaks/Derby double pick. Got to get some coffee and start capping the Oaks. Good luck to all with your selections.

[Kav]

looking forward to hearing your thoughts on oaks.

[shopbar picks]

WOW great thread. Lot of work and insight thanx

[mjag21]

great insight. Going to be following this very closely

[canuck]

Thanks again. Possibly consider doing the same for the Belmont and Preakness. Much appreciated

[btfoz]

Excellent post. Thanks!

[AbeFroman]

Is the oaks/derby double pool open till the oaks goes off or does it close before that?

[MoneylineExpress]

Some of the same methods I used for the Derby can be used for the Oaks. After capping the Oaks my contenders are 1,2,3,4,6,9,11,12. Any of those winning wouldn't shock me. But thats still 8 out of 13. Got ot cut it down.

I'll elminate Kathmanblu as she has regressed as of late. Neither of her last 2 beyer numbers are in the top 2 of her career. Holy Heavens also falls in this category. Zazu is next. Got to remember the Oaks and Derby is tough on these young horses. They’re facing the toughest field of competitors they’ve ever faced at a distance that’s longer than they’ve ever run. They need a recent race to have the proper conditioning base. Zazu hasn't raced in over 2 months; only one in the field.

1,2,3,9,12

Now I'll look at each horses 2nd best beyer figure and take the top 2 choices.

1 - 82
2 - 71
3 - 85
9 - 80
12 - 79

My Plays
Oaks/Derby Double:
1,3/3,7,16
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3:
1,3/1,4,5,6,9,15/3,7,16
1,3/1,5,15/3,7,16
1,2,3,9/1,4,5,6,9,15/3,7,16
1,2,3,9/1,5,15/3,7,16

Note that #15 in the Woodford is on the AE list. That comes up to $174 in plays. Off to the OTB. Crossing my fingers all of these are alive heading into the Derby so I don't have to invest in anything else.

[AbeFroman]

My Oaks Derby/Kentucky Derby Double for those interest. $1=$50 dollar play.

$50.00
Double
1,4,6,9,12,WT,2,3,7,8,11,13,14,15,16,19

May regret leaving Summer Soiree off there, but it is what it is. BOL to all!

[Louisvillekid1]

best of luck, great breakdown

[MoneylineExpress]

Caracortado is racing today so he won't make it out of AE list which cheapened my tickets.

My Plays
Oaks/Derby Double:
1,3/3,7,16
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3:
1,3/1,4,5,6,9/3,7,16
1,3/1,5/3,7,16
1,2,3,9/1,4,5,6,9/3,7,16
1,2,3,9/1,5/3,7,16

[foryourhandicap]

While it is hard to ignore the statistic, it'd be even more hard for me to eliminate Santiva because it finished worse than fourth in its last prep race. It has a win at CD, and it was a game win where it was squeezed down the stretch, lost the lead, and fought back. In its final prep, had just about one of the worst trips I can recall, and it still looked like it was full of run until it was stopped one too many times.

[MoneylineExpress]

Playing:

#1 and #7 to win and place

Exacta: 1,7/1,2,3,5,6,7,13,16

[Kav]

1 and 7? i thought your horses were 3 7 and 16 according to your write up.

[statnerds]

Not to step on any toes, but the Derby has got to be the hardest of the 3. Good luck and I did enjoy reading the information and the depth of research was quite impressive.

But with 19 horses just feel like it is so random sometimes in the Derby.

And I liked Derby Kitten in my Exotics, but now you got me gun shy.

Good luck all.

[Pew Pew]

Woooooo! I bet $50 on pants on fire and animal kingdom just because I saw your analysis! Thanks dude!

[hawkwind]

U Sir R DA MANN