With only a week to go until the Kentucky Derby, here are some things my buddy needs to contemplate other than his own sanity.
The average win payout on a $2 ticket over the past 10 years of the Kentucky Derby has been $35. The average $2 exacta (choosing the top two finishers) has been $1,547.80. The average $2 trifecta (picking the top three) has been $22,263. The average $2 superfecta (correctly betting the top four) has been $192,863.
Now that's getting some bang for your buck. So why would anyone in his right mind wager $2 on the two favorites? The key words in that last sentence have to be "in his right mind."
A new wager has been added to the Kentucky Derby this year — the 10-cent superfecta. For a mere dime, the average superfecta payout the past 10 years would have been $9,643.
So go bet the two favorites on top with my buddy and good luck. That will be $2 you won't ever see again.
If Street Sense and Curlin couldn't do it in 2007, don't count on Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky pulling it off.
Now, I'm not saying they can't win the race.
The betting favorite has won this race four of the past 10 years. Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus were all favored to win and did. But only once in the past 10 years have the two favorites finished in the top two spots. That was 2004
when Smarty Jones beat Lion Heart and even then the $2 exacta payout was $65.
But who wants to bet on that prospective payout when there were others that returned $2,074.80 (Mine that Bird, 50-1; over Pioneerof the Nile, 6-1); $9,814.80 (Giacomo, 50-1; Closing Argument, 71-1); $1,300.80 (War Emblem, 20-1; Proud Citizen, 23-1), and $1,229 (Monarchos, 10-1; Invisible Ink, 55-1)?
There are plenty of live combinations in this Derby that would produce a four-figure exacta payout again. The picks will come next Saturday, but we are here to mention a couple of things that might help you determine who you might like in this Derby.
The following is a list of all the horses expected to go in the Derby that have never passed a horse in their lives to win a race. In other words, when they win, they have jumped out to the lead early and never looked back. That kind of horse is not going to win this Derby. There is far too much speed early on, and these horses will wear each other out on the front end. Someone will pass these horses to win this year.
So here's the list: Rule, Arkansas Derby winner Line of David, the Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance, Super Saver and Discreetly Mine.
Toss them all out. They can't win.
There are also two others that have passed only one horse each when they have won and they may be compromised as well: Sidney's Candy and Endorsement. They could get caught up in some heated fractions early, too.
Here are some more throwouts — Dean's Kitten, Interactif, Paddy O'Prado and Homeboy Kris. It's not worth the ink to even explain why.
The first national poll for 2-year-old Quarter Horses has come out and sitting atop the standings is a horse that just won the Grade 1 $596,041 Remington Park Futurity. The 2-year-old Texas-bred gelding Llano Teller won his third race in a row when he won the Futurity.
And we would be remiss if we did not mention that Zippy Chippy, who had been retired from racing after losing 100 races in a row, has found a home at Old Friends at Cabin Creek in New York. Despite losing all those races in the 1990s, he did finish second and third about 20 times and won $30,834 in his career, finishing last in his last race in 2004.
The average win payout on a $2 ticket over the past 10 years of the Kentucky Derby has been $35. The average $2 exacta (choosing the top two finishers) has been $1,547.80. The average $2 trifecta (picking the top three) has been $22,263. The average $2 superfecta (correctly betting the top four) has been $192,863.
Now that's getting some bang for your buck. So why would anyone in his right mind wager $2 on the two favorites? The key words in that last sentence have to be "in his right mind."
A new wager has been added to the Kentucky Derby this year — the 10-cent superfecta. For a mere dime, the average superfecta payout the past 10 years would have been $9,643.
So go bet the two favorites on top with my buddy and good luck. That will be $2 you won't ever see again.
If Street Sense and Curlin couldn't do it in 2007, don't count on Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky pulling it off.
Now, I'm not saying they can't win the race.
The betting favorite has won this race four of the past 10 years. Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus were all favored to win and did. But only once in the past 10 years have the two favorites finished in the top two spots. That was 2004
when Smarty Jones beat Lion Heart and even then the $2 exacta payout was $65.
But who wants to bet on that prospective payout when there were others that returned $2,074.80 (Mine that Bird, 50-1; over Pioneerof the Nile, 6-1); $9,814.80 (Giacomo, 50-1; Closing Argument, 71-1); $1,300.80 (War Emblem, 20-1; Proud Citizen, 23-1), and $1,229 (Monarchos, 10-1; Invisible Ink, 55-1)?
There are plenty of live combinations in this Derby that would produce a four-figure exacta payout again. The picks will come next Saturday, but we are here to mention a couple of things that might help you determine who you might like in this Derby.
The following is a list of all the horses expected to go in the Derby that have never passed a horse in their lives to win a race. In other words, when they win, they have jumped out to the lead early and never looked back. That kind of horse is not going to win this Derby. There is far too much speed early on, and these horses will wear each other out on the front end. Someone will pass these horses to win this year.
So here's the list: Rule, Arkansas Derby winner Line of David, the Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance, Super Saver and Discreetly Mine.
Toss them all out. They can't win.
There are also two others that have passed only one horse each when they have won and they may be compromised as well: Sidney's Candy and Endorsement. They could get caught up in some heated fractions early, too.
Here are some more throwouts — Dean's Kitten, Interactif, Paddy O'Prado and Homeboy Kris. It's not worth the ink to even explain why.
The first national poll for 2-year-old Quarter Horses has come out and sitting atop the standings is a horse that just won the Grade 1 $596,041 Remington Park Futurity. The 2-year-old Texas-bred gelding Llano Teller won his third race in a row when he won the Futurity.
And we would be remiss if we did not mention that Zippy Chippy, who had been retired from racing after losing 100 races in a row, has found a home at Old Friends at Cabin Creek in New York. Despite losing all those races in the 1990s, he did finish second and third about 20 times and won $30,834 in his career, finishing last in his last race in 2004.
I would prefer to bet on the horse that wins.
