There are a few more unknowns and a bit more uncertainty but betting the Kentucky Derby is just like betting any other horse race: You have to have value. So when the Run for the Roses takes its annual trip around the Churchill Downs oval, May 1, sophisticated horse race betting fans will be comparing a runner's odds of victory to his betting odds and looking for value.
Acknowledging that predicting how a lightly raced 3-year-old will perform going a mile and a quarter for the first time before more than 100,000 screaming fans is anything more than an educated guess, let's look at the major contenders for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby:
Eskendereya: Followed up his 8 1/2-length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a 9 3/4-length romp in the Wood Memorial, both mile and one-eighth races, stamping him as the clear favorite. He also has the tactical speed to get a good trip. But is he worth odds of around 3/2 in a 20-horse field in a race where favorites have won just 16 of the last 60 runnings? Tough call.
Lookin At Lucky: Last year's 2-year-old champion was mugged in his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby, but still finished a willing third. He's trained by Bob Baffert, who has won three runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Baffert plans on removing the blinkers from Lookin At Lucky, who would be difficult to ignore at odds of 5/1 or higher.
Sidney's Candy: A winner of both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby on the front end, there are questions whether the colt can rate or, failing that, if he'll still be around at the finish if the pace isn't totally to his liking. He'll also be moving from the synthetic track surfaces of Southern California to the dirt at Churchill Downs. Some horses handle the switch in surfaces but some don't. You probably wouldn't want to take less than 8/1.
Endorsement: Won the Sunland Derby, March 28, finishing strongly while recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, second only to Eskendereya. Very lightly raced and this is a big step up but improvement is expected. Reminds one of the unheralded Mine That Bird. Intriguing at odds of 15/1 or more.
Ice Box: Remember him? Will enter the Derby off a victory in the Florida Derby, March 20, meaning he'll be racing off a six-week layoff. But trainer Nick Zito has a pair of wins in the Kentucky Derby so it's tough to second guess his judgment. He'll need—and probably get—a fast pace to be a contender in Louisville but anything less than 15/1 isn't enough value.
Line of David: Sent off at odds of 17/1 in the Arkansas Derby, April 10, Line of David held off Super Saver and Dublin to earn the upset. What makes the victory eye-opening is that it was Line of David's first stakes race and first race on dirt after winning two starts on the grass. He has a license to improve and will be out in front. He's a legitimate longshot at odds of 20/1 or better.
Dublin: Those who bet Dublin will be doing so more on potential than performance. He's run well this spring (a second and two thirds) and has the pedigree to go the Derby distance, plus D. Wayne Lukas has trained a record-tying 13 winners of Triple Crown races. Beaten just two necks in the Arkansas Derby, Dublin closed well and would benefit from a fast pace in Louisville. Is the Derby the race where performance finally overtakes potential? You'd probably want at least 20/1 to find out.
American Lion: Roared into contention with a front-stepping victory in the Illinois Derby, April 3. Sound familiar? War Emblem did the same thing before taking the Kentucky Derby on the front end in 2002. Improved once he went from synthetics to dirt but can he rate off what figures to be a lively pace at Churchill Downs? Longshot horse racing betting fans may want to take a chance at 25/1 or higher.
Super Saver: Won at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and has improved in his two starts at 3, missing by a neck in the Arkansas Derby. Has a stalker profile, a running style often associated with the winner of the Kentucky Derby. He's another who would rate consideration at 25/1 or more.
Remember, like any other race, the key to Kentucky Derby betting is value, finding a horse that can win at a good price.
Acknowledging that predicting how a lightly raced 3-year-old will perform going a mile and a quarter for the first time before more than 100,000 screaming fans is anything more than an educated guess, let's look at the major contenders for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby:
Eskendereya: Followed up his 8 1/2-length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a 9 3/4-length romp in the Wood Memorial, both mile and one-eighth races, stamping him as the clear favorite. He also has the tactical speed to get a good trip. But is he worth odds of around 3/2 in a 20-horse field in a race where favorites have won just 16 of the last 60 runnings? Tough call.
Lookin At Lucky: Last year's 2-year-old champion was mugged in his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby, but still finished a willing third. He's trained by Bob Baffert, who has won three runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Baffert plans on removing the blinkers from Lookin At Lucky, who would be difficult to ignore at odds of 5/1 or higher.
Sidney's Candy: A winner of both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby on the front end, there are questions whether the colt can rate or, failing that, if he'll still be around at the finish if the pace isn't totally to his liking. He'll also be moving from the synthetic track surfaces of Southern California to the dirt at Churchill Downs. Some horses handle the switch in surfaces but some don't. You probably wouldn't want to take less than 8/1.
Endorsement: Won the Sunland Derby, March 28, finishing strongly while recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, second only to Eskendereya. Very lightly raced and this is a big step up but improvement is expected. Reminds one of the unheralded Mine That Bird. Intriguing at odds of 15/1 or more.
Ice Box: Remember him? Will enter the Derby off a victory in the Florida Derby, March 20, meaning he'll be racing off a six-week layoff. But trainer Nick Zito has a pair of wins in the Kentucky Derby so it's tough to second guess his judgment. He'll need—and probably get—a fast pace to be a contender in Louisville but anything less than 15/1 isn't enough value.
Line of David: Sent off at odds of 17/1 in the Arkansas Derby, April 10, Line of David held off Super Saver and Dublin to earn the upset. What makes the victory eye-opening is that it was Line of David's first stakes race and first race on dirt after winning two starts on the grass. He has a license to improve and will be out in front. He's a legitimate longshot at odds of 20/1 or better.
Dublin: Those who bet Dublin will be doing so more on potential than performance. He's run well this spring (a second and two thirds) and has the pedigree to go the Derby distance, plus D. Wayne Lukas has trained a record-tying 13 winners of Triple Crown races. Beaten just two necks in the Arkansas Derby, Dublin closed well and would benefit from a fast pace in Louisville. Is the Derby the race where performance finally overtakes potential? You'd probably want at least 20/1 to find out.
American Lion: Roared into contention with a front-stepping victory in the Illinois Derby, April 3. Sound familiar? War Emblem did the same thing before taking the Kentucky Derby on the front end in 2002. Improved once he went from synthetics to dirt but can he rate off what figures to be a lively pace at Churchill Downs? Longshot horse racing betting fans may want to take a chance at 25/1 or higher.
Super Saver: Won at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and has improved in his two starts at 3, missing by a neck in the Arkansas Derby. Has a stalker profile, a running style often associated with the winner of the Kentucky Derby. He's another who would rate consideration at 25/1 or more.
Remember, like any other race, the key to Kentucky Derby betting is value, finding a horse that can win at a good price.
