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Hey General thanks for posting
year I had giacomo too man. bet him on a whim at a party and the people fell over whn he came from nowhere like a bat at of hell to win. I have been blessed with much luck in the only 3 races I watch and bet all year
the three legs of the triple crown baby. its a great time of year,
I love to listen to tom durken or whatever his name is call the races he does a great job
I also had RagsToRiches..listen to the call of this race it is great
have a great day everyone!
A PHILLY IN THE BELMONT IN THE BATTLE OF THE SEXES
you know guys I love every sport but the most exciting moment in all of sports imo is when they say...AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!Comment -
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im not a huge Durkin fan, he blew the derby call last year didnt call mine that bird until the race was over, the churchill announcers call was much betterComment -
i usually take the winner of the arkansas derby[April 10]..but am looking real close at LOOKIN AT LUCKY didnt do well at san anita but looks to run well on dirt,,probably takin em for DERBBYLast edited by blueghost; 04-06-10, 12:41 PM.Comment -
Longshot Winners Muddle Kentucky Derby Picture
By Jeff Frank, Sports Network
The Sports Network
The Kentucky Derby gained the services of three more runners last weekend as Line of David, Stately Victor and Paddy O'Prado all collected enough graded earnings to vie for the glory on the first Saturday in May.
Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy are the probable top three favorites, but after Mine That Bird pulled off the upset last year, it's not out of the question for history to repeat itself in 2010.
Once again, horses from California proved how easy a transition it is going from synthetics (or turf) to conventional dirt as Line of David went gate to wire to win the $1 million Arkansas Derby by a neck over Super Saver.
Line of David's three-length lead around the far turn diminished to just a short head with one furlong remaining, but the son of Lion Heart showed his toughness through the stretch repelling the challenges of both Super Saver and Dublin.
The 17-1 shot, who came into the race off a pair of turf victories at Santa Anita, finished the 1 1/8-miles in 1:49 1/5, only one tick slower than Papa Clem's victory in last year's race. However, unlike Papa Clem, who finished fourth in the '09 Derby, Line of David ran progressively slower in each additional quarter-mile, ending with his final three furlongs in a pedestrian 38 3/5 seconds. To that end, it's unlikely he'll be in contention through the Kentucky Derby stretch, so don't get too excited about his prospects for victory at Churchill Downs.
Super Saver, who came up a tad short in his second start off the layoff, should improve in the Derby, especially since he finally showed ability to rate. For those backing the Todd Pletcher-trained colt this past Saturday, it must have been a disheartening sight to see him not able to mow down the winner, but don't discount his chances at Louisville as this race could be a perfect setup for an in-the-money finish next time out.
Dublin finally had a trouble-free trip after ineffective rides in his two 2010 starts. However, it was very discouraging to see the son of Afleet Alex hang through the stretch for the second straight race.
Noble's Promise, who failed to break well from the gate and never threatened finishing a dismal fifth, was slightly injured at the start of the race and is 50-50 to move forward to Kentucky. The situation appears worse for Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit will be sidelined through the fall with an injured cannon bone.
If Noble's Promise is a Louisville no-show look for Wood Memorial runner-up Jackson Bend to be in the Derby starting gate.
VICTOR WITH A SHOCKING VICTORY
Stately Victor not only won the fastest Blue Grass since 2001, he dominated the nine-horse field by 4 1/4-lengths at odds of 40-1. It was an amazing feat for a horse that had compiled only one turf victory in seven prior races.
The son of Ghostzapper, although visually impressive, wasn't facing any top- notch thoroughbreds in the Blue Grass, almost akin to the Florida Derby, a race in which Ice Box rallied to win at 20-1.
Even though the two appear to be the top come-from-behind types in a race loaded with early speed, the fields they knocked off were two of the weakest of the year.
Paddy O'Prado, the second-place Blue Grass finisher, solidified his spot in the Derby, with $150,000 in graded earnings. However, the Dale Romans-trained colt packed it in rather quickly inside the final furlong of the 1 1/8-mile race so it's extremely doubtful he'll be able to handle the additional furlong on May 1.
As for the rest of the field, First Dude returned from a fifth-place spot in the Florida Derby to fill out the trifecta, but the Kentucky Derby will not be on radar as he comes up short with just $97,500 in graded earnings.
The favorite Interactif didn't seem to handle the Polytrack surface one bit. He sat a length in front of Stately Victor for much of the race and failed to fire his best shot through the stretch finishing fourth, beaten 6 3/4-lengths.
Three horses that definitely will not be on their way to Churchill Downs are Pleasant Prince, Aikenite and Odysseus. In addition, the only way Make Music for Me goes to Kentucky is if a couple of horses bow out between now and race day. One of those colts could be Interactif, as trainer Todd Pletcher said the son of Broken Vow is doubtful for the Derby.
FUTURE WAGER POOL 3 REVISITED
If a few single entrants from Pool 3 do not move forward to Louisville, those who wagered on the "field" could wind up with seven or eight starters for the price of one.
Not only that, six of those horses won their final prep, taking down the winner's share of the purse in the Illinois, Sunland, Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies, along with the Blue Grass and Lane's End. Never in the brief history of the wager has the "all others" bet included so many graded stakes winners.
It's interesting to note that it will take well over $200,000 in graded earnings to make the field this year when a handful of horses ran in the 2009 Derby with less than $100,000.
Those figures are directly related to the quality of the 2010 three-year-olds as only three colts -Eskendereya, Sidney's Candy and Conveyance - have won back-to-back graded stakes at one mile or over. Last year there were 12 horses that either won or placed in more than one graded stakes, with seven finishing first on more than one occasion. Since so many different runners picked up first and second-place checks this year, the number of horses with exorbitant amounts of earnings has skyrocketed.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Eskendereya; 2) Sidney's Candy; 3) Lookin At Lucky; 4) Endorsement; 5) Super Saver; 6) Awesome Act; 7) Setsuko; 8) American Lion; 9) Dublin; 10) Ice Box; 11) Interactif; 12) Mission Impazible.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/1...#ixzz0lDL1eoAtLast edited by The General; 04-15-10, 06:28 PM.Comment -
Derby field still a work in progress
The field for this year's Kentucky Derby picked up two new shooters Saturday when the previously unheralded pair of Line of David and Stately Victor pulled off upsets in the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass, respectively. But the prospective field for the Derby on May 1 will be in flux right up to entry time on April 28, both because there are currently more than the maximum number of 20 horses who are being pointed for the race and there is uncertainty over the prospects of some horses currently in the top 20.
The most notable question marks surround Noble's Promise, who was fifth in the Arkansas Derby, and Interactif, who was fourth on Polytrack in the Blue Grass. Both are in the top 20 in terms of earnings, so if they were to drop out, that would allow horses on the outside to get in.
If more than 20 horses enter the Derby, the criteria to determine the starting field is earnings in graded stakes races.
Ken McPeek, trainer of Noble's Promise, said he was "not sure" if Noble's Promise would run.
"He came out of it with several cuts and scrapes [that] happened at the start," said McPeek, who added that Noble's Promise had a "slight lung infection."
McPeek said there would be "no decision until he gets these issues resolved."
Trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday that Interactif "would have to work lights out" on the dirt at Churchill Downs in order progress to the Derby.
"I don't want to completely rule the race out, but I would call him doubtful at this time," Pletcher said from the Palm Meadows training center in Florida.
Another Pletcher trainee, Aikenite, was removed from Derby consideration on Monday by Cot Campbell, who runs the Dogwood Stable partnership which owns Aikenite. Aikenite finished eighth in the Blue Grass, beating just one horse, Odysseus, who came out of the race with a chip in his left knee.
"He's out. We're not thinking about the Derby," Campbell said from his office in Aiken, S.C. "We wanted to see him run a good race. He did not run well enough to entertain thoughts of the Derby."
Aikenite was 24th in graded stakes earnings.
Odysseus had been removed from Derby consideration by trainer Tom Albertrani - "We're going to regroup," he said Sunday - even before it was learned Monday that Odysseus had a knee chip.
"The X-rays show a chip in the back of the left knee," said Satish Sanan, whose Padua Stables owns Odysseus. "It's a very unusual spot, and it's an indication that he hyperextended it. We will see what needs to be done and go from there."
Also of interest will be the status of Uh Oh Bango, who finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby and now finds himself right on the bubble, 21st in graded earnings. As with Noble's Promise, whether Uh Oh Bango goes to the Derby, and whether some horses above him drop out in the next two weeks, will be keenly watched by those connected to horses like Jackson Bend, Backtalk, Make Music for Me, and Setsuko, who want to get in but right now are outside the top 20.
"I'm going to wait until the end of the week to decide, but the Derby is not really our number one pick," Kory Owens, who trains Uh Oh Bango, said at his barn at Oaklawn Park on Sunday morning. "We may take a look at it."
Line of David, who got a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 in the Arkansas Derby, was flown from Arkansas to Kentucky on Monday. He was scheduled to be joined Tuesday at Churchill Downs by his John Sadler-trained stablemate, Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy, who was booked on a Tuesday flight from California with, among others, Eclipse Award winner Lookin At Lucky.
Overnight rain in Southern California on Sunday night into Monday closed the main track at Santa Anita on Monday, which confined Sidney's Candy and Lookin At Lucky to the training track, which is dirt.
Trainer Bob Baffert said Lookin At Lucky's work schedule at Churchill Downs had yet to be finalized.
Larry Benavidez, the top assistant to Sadler, said Monday morning at Hollywood Park that Sidney's Candy was scheduled to have his first work at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Sidney's Candy has yet to race on a dirt surface.
Super Saver, a close second in the Arkansas Derby, was on the same plane with Line of David on Monday and went straight to Churchill Downs. Pletcher, who trains Super Saver, still has most of his Derby contenders at Palm Meadows. He said Eskendereya, Discreetly Mine, Mission Impazible, and Rule were all scheduled to work at Palm Meadows this weekend and then fly to Kentucky on April 20.
Stately Victor, who got a 94 Beyer in the Blue Grass, exited the race in great shape, according to trainer Mike Maker. The Ghostzapper colt will remain with Maker's other Derby-bound horse, Dean's Kitten, in the relative quiet of the Trackside training center just a few miles from Churchill.
Paddy O'Prado, who finished second in the Blue Grass, will remain at Keeneland for the time being but will soon move to join trainer Dale Romans's main string at Churchill. First Dude, third in the Blue Grass for Romans, already is back at Churchill but is unlikely to make the Derby with just $97,500 in graded earnings.
Trainer Alexis Barba said she hoped Make Music for Me would creep up the earnings list and make the Derby. If not, Barba said Make Music for Me would run in the American Turf on the Kentucky Oaks undercard April 30.
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Northerners aren't usually too big into these horse races. Think its more of a southern thing.Comment -
I love when the chalk bettors are all over the favorite. Keep betting those favorites and you will end up in the poor hose. there is no way a kentucky derby horse should go off at 9/5 but i hope the horse does.Comment -
No chance, I can't believe futures have had Lucky and now Eske at around +300. The Derby favorite is gonna go off 4-1 or higher. Gonna be some really nice payouts this year..just hope I can get a piece...was all over Nile last year but didn't have Mine That Bird on top..Comment -
First off I'll say to madmaxx.. Eskendereya is going to be 2-1 on May 1st. 5/2 if you're unbelievably lucky. It would take something godly to keep that horse from going off as odds-on favorite. The public perception of him is extremely strong. Not quite Big Brown level but very close.
Here's my Kentucky Derby breakdown with the current Top 20 in Earnings. First the horses who I will confidently leave off all my tickets come May 1st. A couple of these throwouts may not even be running in the Derby, I haven't checked up on all the trainer intentions for these guys.
EASY TOSSES
Interactif - A couple G3 turf wins last fall but neither were particularly impressive fields. Got good pace setups in two poly starts, which he clearly didn't like but he may not like dirt much more either. I think 1 1/4 is also a bit too much for this horse and he doesn't have a whole lot of speed to begin with.
Dean's Kitten - Like Interactif, he showed grabbed a couple of turf wins as a 2 year old. He won the Lanes End on the Turfway poly but there were really no serious contenders in that field. Pedigree isn't very promising for a Derby contender. Lots of turf breeding on the sire side and the dam side isn't very rich in stamina. Not alot of top-end speed here either.
Discreetly Mine - Has show more speed than the previous two horses having finished 2nd in the Champagne last October and winning the G2 Risen Star in February. However his energy profile isn't very 1 1/4 mile friendly as he's had trouble rating early in his races. In a Derby where there will be even more speed than him on the front-end, that is very bad news for this horse.
Dublin - Showed some promise as a 2-year old but also had trouble rating. They've been putting a stranglehold on this horse to slow him down earlier in his race but he hasn't had much left for the stretch drives and showed no late kicks in his past few races when he should of had energy a little energy in the tank. The game has passed D.Wayne Lukas by over the past decade as well. He's won just 4 out of his last 145 (3%) in graded stakes race.
American Lion - Had the lead and a soft pace in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne and he still wasn't overly impressive in putting away the pretty soft field. I don't see enough here to use this horse.
Conveyance - Nice horse with lots of speed but similar to a couple of the other young 3 year olds in that he hasn't shown any ability to rate and hold reserve energy for the stretch run. Pedigree is not very good at getting 10 furlongs. I think this horse has a chance at a wonderful career as a miler, but he'll be totally spent at the top of the stretch of the Derby.
Stately Victor - I'll hesitantly leave this horse off my trifectas and superfecta tickets. Capitalized on a fast pace to close from the behind and upset the Bluegrass Stakes at 40-1. The top end speed isn't there and his only other win in 7 other races was his maiden win last September. He's had a pair of 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, and an 8th against weak lots since that Maiden win.
Mission Impazible - Doesn't have the Top End speed. The Lousiana Derby winner looks good on the resume but there wasn't much in terms of Derby horses in that field. Horses in the Unbridled line tend to not be very sound and can run quite inconsistant and his best so far looks far from good enough.
Line of David - Might as well toss the other upset winner from last weekend. The horse is developing rapidly this spring but he don't have much 2yo foundation and is very likely at the end of his line and could be looking to bounce from that last effort (that still isn't good enough to win this race). Energy profile suggest he's not that good rating either and will have trouble with a fast pace in the Derby.
Rule - Very nice speedballer that doesn't figure to get 1 1/4 either. Can't rate and doesn't have the endurance pedigree. Another one that could crush the mile races down the road and I'd even consider him as an underneath use in the Preakness if there isn't as much speed in the field.
Noble's Promise - I like this horse but he's have some physical ailments right now that has derailed his training a bit and he's even been announced as 50/50 to even enter in the Derby To win the Derby you need everything to go right for you. If there wasn't a problem here, he'd be rounding out the bottom of my exotic tickets. He can rate and has some good kick but I'm leaving him off because of the problems.
Alright, those are my 11 easy tosses. Leaving us with 9 potential winners for the Derby. Yikes this is a tough race to handicap.
USE IN EXOTICS
Super Saver - Alright this is almost a toss. I love this horse, loads of speed, decent endurance bloodlines but Pletcher just cannot get him to rate and pace himself! He wants to go to the front and they can't reign him in. I think this horse has ENORMOUS potential if they can just get him to relax and reserve some energy for the finish. All that being said, I will use him on my exotic tickets and hope he doesn't go out and win and beat me. I just gotta see this horse relax before I can bet him to win going 1 1/4. Another reason I can't completely toss him, despite the negatives is that Calvin Borel will likely be on him and Borel's 6 Derby horses this past decade have all outrun their odds.
Awesome Act - Fair speed and he showed in the Gotham win that he can carry a cruising speed a long way. He had a legitimate excuse in the Wood as he threw a shoe around the gate and wasn't right. Got strangleheld by Leparoux while going wide all the way around the oval and didn't have anything left in the stretch. Has a chance to get there IMO and will be on my tickets.
Paddy O'Prado - Very high top-end speed showed off in the Bluegrass, had absolutely nothing left in the stretch but he showed rating ability in the past in some of his turf races. I got the feeling that this horse is in for a big move in the Derby and if he can settle down and get a decent trip he could find his number somewhere on the toteboard.
Homeboykris - Another with loads of top-end speed that can also rate. The Champagne win as a 2yo was very impressive and there are signs that he's getting back to that form and developing even more. Lots of stamina on the dam side. This horse is very versatile with cruising speed, tactical speed, and as well as the ability to kick on late. This horse will be a big price, 30-1+ and I believe he'll outrun his odds and be in the front pack at the finish line.
Sidney's Candy - Very fast horse who is better now than what last year's 2nd place finisher Pioneerof The Nile was at this time of the year. Concerns about his first dirt race is legit. Another negative I have a problem with is young Joe Talamo. An inexperienced jockey that makes alot of mistakes is not a good matchup for the 20-horse Derby. I would much rather see a veteran on this horse. There are some questions about whether he can rate but I have a hunch that he can as in the Santa Anita Derby he was able to slow up the pace alittle and had loads of energy to kick clear of some good horses.
Ice Box - Powerful close to win the Florida Derby, he was barreling down on everyone and galloped out strong while everyone else was shot. Decent stamina pedigree. I expect a hot pace and I expect this one to be flying late. If he doesn't run into any trouble or be forced too wide he's got a good chance to hit the board.
Looking At Lucky - A dream ride for Garrett Gomez. This horse rates beautifully, has loads of top end speed, and also is very athletic and nimble with good tactical speed which is what is needed in the Derby.. Very determined and gutsy horse that one would be nuts to leave off the tickets.
Eskendereya - Probably the best in the bunch but at 2-1 he's not a very good key IMO. Seems to be a one-run horse type without much athletic ability or tactical speed as well. Traffic problems in the Derby could really comprimise this horses chances to win. All that being said, he's a very fast horse with lots of stamina and is a must use on all your tickets. If the field gets spread out and he can find a nice spot 3 wide around the track, he's got a good chance to win. But at 2-1? No Key.
Endorsement - This horse is rapidly developing into quite the horse. Was very impressed with the Sunland Derby win. Flying into 3700 ft altitude (that same altitude Mine That Bird trained at prior to the Derby last year), he tracked an honest pace and had the energy to peel away from Conveyance. Loads of stamina pedigree. Good cruising speed, Good top-end speed. Likely 15-1 or 20-1 and a must use IMO. I think he's going to get better.
Alright, so I have 9 horses now and I'm 99% sure the winner, exacta, and trifecta are coming out of this group. Which one is it gonna be? I have no freaking clue. The Derby is pretty much a crapshoot and you gotta hope your horse gets the best trip. I am very confident I could $1 ex box those 9 horses for $72 and cash the winning ticket. The question is how much profit. With Esky on top and any of the close favs like LAL or Sidney will probably lose money
All that being said, I like Endorsement and Looking at Lucky alot although a cheap price might scare me off LAL. I like the potential race setup for Ice Box and Homeboykris. Then again I can't shake the feeling that Awesome Act, Paddy O'Prado, Super Saver are going to be there at the end.
I have no idea what to do yet. I'll wait until the workouts at CD are run over the next couple weeks.Comment -
what is the date of the kentucky derby?Comment -
"Endorsement - This horse is rapidly developing into quite the horse. Was very impressed with the Sunland Derby win. Flying into 3700 ft altitude (that same altitude Mine That Bird trained at prior to the Derby last year), he tracked an honest pace and had the energy to peel away from Conveyance. Loads of stamina pedigree. Good cruising speed, Good top-end speed. Likely 15-1 or 20-1 and a must use IMO. I think he's going to get better."
This has been my pick ever since Sunland Derby, mainly because of Winstar Farms' beast breeding. I'm watching Shannon Ritters' horses everyday to give me confidence she can train well. If her horses disappoint I'm going to have to drop the horse(Endorsement) because of the importance of training for PEAK performance on derby day.Comment -
Prediction (Guess time)
My $2 Show tickets are going on Stately Victor (6) and Jackson Bend (13) both approx 21/1 shots.
I am certain there is a couple guys here who are going to win a nice profit when this Kentucky Derby 136 race is finished.
Enjoy the show, everyone and best of luck.Comment -
136th Kentucky Derby
Trifecta Box:
#4 Super Saver
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#20 Sidney's CandyComment -
Terrific for Calvin and the guy betting the 100K.
That's good stuff.
Congrats winners.Comment -
Damn guy that bet 100K won!!!Comment -
Last thoughts on this fine sporting day, last but not least, Congrats to Pletcher. Way due and got er' done.
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I hit the exacta in this race and got back $150 on my $12 bet. My friend hit the tri twice and would have had the super if the #3 hung on and it didn't do that. Overall I had a good Kentucky Derby this year.Comment -
Way to go, Blues!Comment
