Breeders Cup (11/1 and 11/2)

[Jellymancan]

Some of the best days (one could argue the best) of the year for this forum.

I figured I'd start a thread for these two days so anyone can post ask their questions, opinions and picks for any race.

This could serve as the hub thread for everyone with all things breeders cup related.

Curious to hear people's thoughts throughout the week! Let's go $!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Not playing the Cup 2024 but GL Jelly. And BOL to all playing. Will check out this thread. Thx.

[Jellymancan]

That’s too bad, ez. How are you doing in football this year?

[Easy-Rider 66]

That’s too bad, ez. How are you doing in football this year?

doing decent. IN top 6th SBR Pick 5 game. Long way to go. Holding my own with MGM and Caesars. Hope you are having a good Football season Jelly.

[JBEX]

good idea jelly.. have a little discussion and picks on the races

[Jellymancan]

doing decent. IN top 6th SBR Pick 5 game. Long way to go. Holding my own with MGM and Caesars. Hope you are having a good Football season Jelly.

Nice. Where is that contest leaderboard? Yeah, doing decent, long way to go.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice. Where is that contest leaderboard? Yeah, doing decent, long way to go.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for....php?t=3745127 every Tues they post the leaderboard in Players Talk jelly.

[batt33]

posted in STR's thread but will post here also....[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Seize the Grey Race Overview[/COLOR]Seize the Grey looks to close out Breeders’ Cup weekend with a bang while potentially securing an Eclipse Award in the process in Saturday’s G1 Dirt Mile. As far as the Eclipse goes, it’ll likely come down to what Fierceness, and to a lesser extent Sierra Leone, do in the G1 Classic four races earlier. If neither of them wins or comes close against their elders, it might just be Seize the Grey’s award to win if he can put forth a convincing effort in the Dirt Mile.
Beyer Speed Figure par for the Dirt Mile is 108, and scanning the past performances of the competition, it does look like it’ll take a 105 or so to win. Seize the Grey’s career top is a 100, but we do have reason to believe he can step forward. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has been saying that Seize the Grey is a better horse now than he’s ever been, and we tend to agree. He seems to really have matured this fall and is thriving on his steady diet of bullet breezes at Churchill. The Coach has mentioned it and we’ve also been amazed at how well your son of Arrogate has held his weight after a busy season and all that’s been asked of him. He seems to have handled the ship to California great as well.
Pace and trip wise, Seize the Grey will almost certainly have to employ the same rating tactics he did when he scored a first graded victory in the G2 Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day. He’s not quite as quick early as at least the two inside horses, but we love the idea of he and rider Jaime Torres working out a stalking trip perched just off those two and whoever else decides to go.
We’ve had so much fun watching and rooting for Seize the Grey with all of you throughout this storybook season, and can’t wait to try to fill that winner’s circle again on Saturday. Good luck and enjoy!
Click here for past performances and read more on the competition below:
#1 Saudi Crown (5-1) - Ran three 105-plus Beyer Speed Figures last year and again first time back this season, but failed to fire in the G2 Godolphin Mile in March. Has run just once since then, when laying over a listed group at Ellis in August. Trainer Brad Cox dominated the 2020 Dirt Mile with Knicks Go, who also had an abbreviated campaign leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, but did prep the prior month. Will be a major player from start to finish and is well suited to the configuration.
#2 T O Saint Denis (Jpn) (30-1) - Hard-knocking 5-year-old’s Japanese form really isn’t the most impressive, but he nearly stole the G2 Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks day when shipping over with stablemate T O Password (Jpn), who was a decent fifth in the G1 Kentucky Derby. Those have been conditioner Daisuke Takayanagi’s only two Stateside runners thus far. This guy may hold the key to the race—he could pressure Saudi Crown early and weaken that foe up for the stretch drive.
#3 Full Serrano (Arg) (15-1) - From Japan to Argentina, highlighting the true international nature of the “World Championships.” First U.S. victory came over track and trip in allowance company in August, and that performance wouldn’t be close enough to take this, but he came back and almost ran away with the G1 Pacific Classic tour weeks later. Tough to envision him working out the right trip to defeat the other speeds and hold off those coming from off the pace, but he may add more fuel to the fire. He’s got some sharp-looking works on display.
#4 Kathonah (30-1) - Hasn’t quite classed up at the highest level in his last two, and was second in the local G2 San Diego in July to Dr. Venkman, who was ruled out of this race because his connections felt it might be too tough for him. Likes the trip and has the right style, but can’t imagine him being better than third or so.
#5 Three Technique (30-1) - Beat a couple of these same rivals in the four-horse G3 Ack Ack S. at Churchill, but seems best suited to one-turn races and just hasn’t been fast enough this year.
#7 Tumbarumba (30-1) - Second best to Three Technique last time. Has never been worse than second in five tries at the distance, but he’s got a tendency to find one better and has done so in each of his last four outings. Would be surprised if he could beat them all.
#8 Post Time (12-1) - Live price threat who possesses the right off-the-pace style. Has earned a few big figures in the past, and outran 25-1 odds two back when third in the front-end-dominated G1 Whitney S. Prepped for this with a double-digit drubbing in a one-turn-mile stake at Laurel. High-percentage Maryland-based barn takes a rare trip outside of the East Coast. He'll be in our exotics with STG.
#9 Domestic Product (7-2) - Morning-line chalk took a very slow running of the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in March, and has been reinvented in the second half of the year as a one-turn horse, most recently annexing the G1 Allen Jerkens going seven panels at the Spa in August. He got a very hot pace to close into that day, and we’re not totally sold that he’s cut out for this trip. Seems like an underlay at anything close to the ML quote.
#10 Muth (9-2) - Was a top 2-year-old and early 3-year-old, but slipped under the radar after going missing following the G1 Arkansas Derby, in which he beat next-out Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. He resurfaced to best an overmatched group in the track-and-trip Shared Belief Sept. 1, but failed to show up at all when last of six as the favorite in the G1 California Crown. Maybe the cutback will help, but he had no trouble with the California Crown distance earlier in the year. Tough to bank on him running his A race off the no-show last out.
#11 Cagliostro (30-1) - Third last out in the Ack Ack. Useful runner, but has shown repeatedly that he’s more of a Grade 3 type.
#12 Mufasa (Chi) (12-1) - Bit of a “tweener” distance wise as his two victories this year have come going seven furlongs—the BC Sprint was deemed too sharp for him, but this two-turn mile is probably not his preferred trip either. He is a Group 3 winner in his native Chile over nine furlongs, but that victory came over just three rivals. Trainer Ignacio Correas has had past success shipping from his Keeneland base to a California Breeders’ Cup—he took down some heavy hitters in the 2019 Distaff at Santa Anita with Blue Prize (Arg).
#13 Pipeline (30-1) - Has some speed, but simply isn’t good enough to win this and isn’t drawn well with a short run to the first turn. Could get sucked into an early duel, but not sure he’s quite fast enough to run with some of the others.
#14 Skippylongstocking (4-1) - Very tough post for last year’s third-place finisher. The 2023 Dirt Mile only featured a field of seven, and it felt like he was more third by default than anything. Looking at his complete body of work, he’s clearly best at 1 1/8 miles and prefers to be up on the pace. There’s very little chance he’ll work out the trip he likes in here. Siding against.

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Straight No Chaser Race Overview

Straight No Chaser is set to start in the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Sprint Saturday, and is looking to earn the first Grade 1 victory of his career on the biggest possible stage. Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who rode him to victory in the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time out, once again has the call on your son of Speightster. Straight No Chaser has been labeled the 5-1 third choice in a field of eleven horses. They'll go to the gate around 4:05 p.m. PT on Saturday. A win in this race would almost certainly mean an Eclipse Award for champion sprinter as well, as nobody in the division has locked up that honor by any means.
Your speedster comes into this race following his rout in Grade 2 company last time out in which he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, an impressive feat in his first start following an over four-month layoff. There should be room for improvement here second off of the bench and if that's the case, the rest of the field might be in trouble. His 107 career type is slightly the best of the bunch. Trainer Dan Blacker strikes at a 27% rate with horses making their second start off of a layoff of 45 to 180 days. If your bay can follow the trends, he will undoubtedly be a serious contender to win this race.
Being a Grade 1 sprint, there is a substantial amount of speed signed on. Straight No Chaser runs his best races on the lead and is certainly quick enough to make the front in this spot, so our game plan will not change. He will likely face some sort of pressure from other horses in this group, but with his high cruising speed, we think he should be able to take that in stride. His 131 TimeformUS early pace rating is second in the field to only the wide-drawn Skelly, and given their respective post positions it makes sense to send. We're also not so sure he isn't naturally faster than Skelly when push comes to shove.
Although this will only be his third start of the year, we have had a blast watching and cheering Straight No Chaser on throughout this season and are elated to be where we are with him after that tough return to the races in May. This race will be the biggest test of his career, but we couldn’t be more excited to cheer him on and hopefully celebrate his sixth career victory Saturday afternoon. It is not every day you get to run in a Breeders’ Cup race, let alone with a great chance to win it. Good luck and enjoy!
More on the competition below (Click here for past performances):
#1 Raging Torrent (10-1) - Sophomore winner of the G2 Pat O’Brien over the Del Mar surface last time out, this son of Maximus Mischief comes into this race in the best form of his life. He has run Beyer Speed Figures of 104 in two out of his last three starts, which puts him in the mix. He is a speed horse drawn down on the rail, but he's been racing at seven furlongs and it's tough to know what kind of trip he can work out from here going the six. He also faces older company for just the second time in his career.
#2 Gun Pilot (20-1) - A Grade 1 winner in 2024, this Asmussen trainee will have to improve off of his career-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure to factor in here--but there is no reason that he can't. He is a true closing sprinter who will likely get a favorable pace scenario. Look for him to be coming with a late run down the stretch.
#3 Federal Judge (3-1) - The favorite in this group. He passed the class test at Keeneland last time out when he romped in the G2 Phoenix S. by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a career high 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He is so fast that he hasn’t truly been pressured for the lead in any of his races this year, so it will be interesting to see how he handles that. With that being said, he is one of the main speed horses in this group for the ever-dangerous Brad Cox barn.
#4 Nakatomi (6-1) - A Grade 1 winner this summer in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. at Saratoga, this Wesley Ward pupil was third by two lengths in last year's running of the Sprint. He is another horse with a come-from-behind running style, so with the pace scenario he may be able to run them down late.
#5 Don Frankie (Jpn) (15-1) - Japanese shipper comes into this race off of over a two-month layoff. Two starts back he was second in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, a race in which the #4 Nakatomi was third in. That effort at Meydan proves his class and makes him an interesting contender in this spot.
#6 Bentornato (30-1) - Florida-bred comes into this spot off of a win in the G2 Gallant Bob on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard, for which he earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Back in February he was third by six lengths in Saudia Arabia behind Classic hopeful Forever Young (Jpn) and super sprinter Book’em Danno. He is not fast enough to make the lead in this race and will have to work out a stalking trip.
#7 Meta Max (20-1) - Another invader from Japan, this on $1.1-million OBS March '22 purchase. He has yet to win a group stake race in his home base of Japan. In his last two starts, however, he came from off the pace, so he could play a factor late in this race.
#9 Remake (Jpn) (8-1) - This world-class sprinter has raced in Japan, Korea, the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the past two years, sporting three Group 3 wins. He was fourth begind #5 Don Frankie and #4 Nakatomi this past March in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. He also defeated #11 Skelly back in February in Saudi Arabia. Familiar with the competition, but will need to run his best.
#10 Mullikin (7-2) - Sports a four-race win streak, with his most recent victory coming in the G1 Forego on Travers day at Saratoga. He can show speed, but is likely to sit right off the pace in this race. A step forward off his most recent Beyer Speed Figure of 105 could land him in the winner’s circle in here.
#11 Skelly (8-1): Tends to fade after being pressured, as can be seen in his last three starts where he set the pace and ultimately faded to second-place finishes. Possibly the fastest in this bunch and will be forced to send from the outside post. Is Straight No Chaser's main competition for the early lead, and has races in him that make him very competitive, but have a feeling that when all is said and done he'll come up a bit short.

[/COLOR]

[JBEX]

posted in str thread but figure I'd put it here also.."both" refers to me and batts ..bc sprint is what I'm referring to with this


" we will both be rooting for our interests but I tell you..don't see why #6 bentornato should be 30-1..(understand it's what the linesmaker thinks he'll go off around)..he refused to give in pressed all the around at parx in g2 even if it was vs only 3yo's..don't think it's impossible that he could sit a little off what will probably be a brutal battle on the front end ..no pressure for saez as he's not given much of a chance to begin with "

[BOA12]

1:35 cst

r1 -.50 - p3 - 1/246/129 - $4.50 Out.

r1 #1 8-1 Out.

r2 #4 6-1 Winner $5.00-$3.40

r3 #1 5/2 Out.

[Jellymancan]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for....php?t=3745127 every Tues they post the leaderboard in Players Talk jelly.

Thanks man!

[str]

I have looked through a few of these races for each day of the BC . For me, the biggest question will be; will this track be as speed favoring as it was this summer and usually is for breeders cup races?
It will be tough to come up with some closers if the track won't allow them a reasonable chance. We might need to watch a couple of races and try and get a handle on that.
That what I will do and hopefully it is fair for the closers.

[BOA12]

I have looked through a few of these races for each day of the BC . For me, the biggest question will be; will this track be as speed favoring as it was this summer and usually is for breeders cup races?
It will be tough to come up with some closers if the track won't allow them a reasonable chance. We might need to watch a couple of races and try and get a handle on that.
That what I will do and hopefully it is fair for the closers.

I hope so(speed favoring), why I like #1 Vlahos R1 wire to wire.

All for 1 one 4 all.

Instant test perhaps.

[Madison]

I have looked through a few of these races for each day of the BC . For me, the biggest question will be; will this track be as speed favoring as it was this summer and usually is for breeders cup races?
It will be tough to come up with some closers if the track won't allow them a reasonable chance. We might need to watch a couple of races and try and get a handle on that.
That what I will do and hopefully it is fair for the closers.

This !!

[Jellymancan]

I have looked through a few of these races for each day of the BC . For me, the biggest question will be; will this track be as speed favoring as it was this summer and usually is for breeders cup races?
It will be tough to come up with some closers if the track won't allow them a reasonable chance. We might need to watch a couple of races and try and get a handle on that.
That what I will do and hopefully it is fair for the closers.

Kind of the same thoughts. Really hope the track plays fair. We’ll see.

[Jellymancan]

r1- W #9 Dothraki

[Madison]

Just a few I think might be live

R4 Test Score ML 15-1 (Kittens Joy) long time fav on turf

R7 Quikkick ML 10-1

[S0BRiquet]

Yesterday looked to be pretty fair but I'm also approaching with caution--will lean toward quicker horses early on and go from there.

strike it rich this weekend

[S0BRiquet]

With you on this #9.
Will also play a little provisional exacta -> 5/3,6,8

[str]

Just came across this.


Since Delmar replaced it's racing surface 10 years ago there have been a total of twelve 1mile and 1quarter races run. In those races, 8 have been won by the front runner. 3 have been just off the pace and 1 has been a closer.

That puts the horse I thought I might pick in a world of trouble. I guess I will look at the race from that point of view and see where I land.

[Jellymancan]

Just a few I think might be live

R4 Test Score ML 15-1 (Kittens Joy) long time fav on turf

R7 Quikkick ML 10-1

Like #7 as well.

[batt33]

Just came across this.


Since Delmar replaced it's racing surface 10 years ago there have been a total of twelve 1mile and 1quarter races run. In those races, 8 have been won by the front runner. 3 have been just off the pace and 1 has been a closer.

That puts the horse I thought I might pick in a world of trouble. I guess I will look at the race from that point of view and see where I land.

Wow great info thanks STR!

[Jellymancan]

r2- W #3 Just Nails

[Jellymancan]

r3- WP #5 Renatus, WP #8 We the Free, exbox #5,8,9

[Madison]

r3- WP #5 Renatus, WP #8 We the Free, exbox #5,8,9

Played 9 show and $1 ex 3/9.

[BOA12]

R4 #10 15-1 opens 7-1 Winner $15.60-$7.80

$1 exbx 10/1351314 Winner $1 10-13 $112.30

[str]

In the 3rd race going 7/8ths at Delmar the first four finishers laid 5-6-7-8 down the backside in a 9 horse field.

The winner paid 24.00.

Interesting.

[batt33]

In the 3rd race going 7/8ths at Delmar the first four finishers laid 5-6-7-8 down the backside in a 9 horse field.

The winner paid 24.00.

Interesting.

The rails are all the way inside vs yesterday

[Madison]

R4 13 Show. Tough post.

[Jellymancan]

r4- W #2 Smash It, W #10 Chasing Liberty, exbox #2,3,10

[Madison]

This guy is real!!

[Madison]

r4- W #2 Smash It, W #10 Chasing Liberty, exbox #2,3,10

Add mine we would have nice payday.

[Madison]

Muhiama is one giant Fillie.

[Madison]

Just a few I think might be live

R4 Test Score ML 15-1 (Kittens Joy) long time fav on turf

R7 Quikkick ML 10-1

Nice one here. Test Score.

[Jellymancan]

Add mine we would have nice payday.

The post scared me away. If he drew 10 or in it would have been a nice payday. Damn.