All things 2024 KY DERBY- Picks and Thoughts on the Big Race

[Pigpen]

Friday looks wet. Saturday may escape the weather. I hope so.

[Jellymancan]

Will it rain enough Friday to knock them off the turf Saturday?

[str]

Will it rain enough Friday to knock them off the turf Saturday?

As the biggest day of the year they will do everything they can to keep it on the turf.

[Memento]

Both Sierra Leone and Chasing Freedom are strong late closers. CF went 8 wide, last to first to win the LA Derby. If either are mid-pack at the turn they have a great shot. If it is an off track...doubt the pace will hold up for a closer to win.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Both Sierra Leone and Chasing Freedom are strong late closers. CF went 8 wide, last to first to win the LA Derby. If either are mid-pack at the turn they have a great shot. If it is an off track...doubt the pace will hold up for a closer to win.

I am under the impression that speed holds well in the slop? But maybe not a drying out track? See what happens.

[Jellymancan]

As the biggest day of the year they will do everything they can to keep it on the turf.

No doubt. I hope it’s not that many inches.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The KY Oaks: R11: 4 Regulatory Risk 14 Leslie's Rose the #4 is currently 29/1 and the #14 7/1 10 minutes till they jump.

[Easy-Rider 66]

derby

#7 honor marie (12-1 currently)

only 3 starts as a 2yo were at churchill downs with 2 wins and
and a 2nd .. the 2nd was on a sloppy track so I give extra credit for both wins being on fast ones ..also the 2nd fast track win was around 2 turns in a grade 2..having not only 2 wins here but a grade 2 route at this track as a 2yo (enough 2's for you lol) carry a lot of weight ,no pun intended, for me ..looks like a really bad trip on a sloppy track in his 3yo debut @ the fairgrounds followed by a 2nd by a length in the louisiana derby (his last race)the latter at a 1 3/16 which is an extra half furlong further than the typical 1 1/8 mile preps ..he was closing a lot in that race so i prefer only an extra half furlong vs the longer furlong stretchout for the other major prep runners

being a deep closer he'll need a fast pace to set him up and think there's a good chance they'll be one today


this is my write-up and thoughts from looking at the pp's ..no other input from others written or video material which is very easy to get these days

THE JBEX PICK for the DERBY

[Easy-Rider 66]

Going with the #19 Resilience. also adding the #7 Honor Marie based on STR and the JBEX positions. will cover both horses with the #2 Sierra Leone. The edit is I cancelled the #18 play. to add the ex. THX.

[mrginandtonic]

Mike Beer from DRF also picked 19- Resilience. Hopefully he is right. My initial Derby picks are 3- Mystic Dan and 17- Fierceness because they are the only two horses that has cracked the 100 Beyer figure. I down graded Mystic Dan because McPeek and Hernandez won with Thorpedo Anna yesterday; it is rare for the same traner/jock to win both. But I will still play him. As for Fierceness, he is the best horse but we all know the best horse doesn't always wins. I like the 19- Resilence because like Mike Beer said, I think he may be peaking at the right time. Mott main man Alvarado is at the iron. He has shown that he can sit a few lengths off the speed horses. He is out of Into Mischief, his damn sire is Smart Strike (one of my favorite). His outside post maybe too much for him, but at 30-1, I will take a shot. All the other horses actually have a shot; but at huge odds, I will take 20- Society Man (ML 50-1). Wood memorial might give me the exacta... lol

My Pick 6 ticket wasn't bad today; other than Race 9, the rest are pretty much to form....

05/04

10:24 AM

Churchill Downs

7

$0.20

P6

3, 6, 11 / 5, 11 / 5, 11 / 4, 5, 10 / 5, 11 / 17, 19

$28.80

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK Mr. G&T thx for your picks. I like the #19 as I favor his last out pace figures and BRIS velocity number. Also he is 2nd time blinks on and just ran his best race with them in the Wood. also I think he can rate off the projected hot pace and get first run on the closers. I never win the derby and probably will not this year either. But fun to have a couple of dogs in the hunt. Good Luck.

[Jellymancan]

Good call Mr g and t!

[Easy-Rider 66]

yeah good call on the #3 Mr. G&T.

[mrginandtonic]

Good call Mr g and t!

Thanks; wish I had more $$ on him!!!

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">���� 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1)<br>�� ᴄ͟ᴏ͟ᴜ͟ʀ͟s͟ᴇ͟: Churchill Downs (2,000m)<br>�� ᴡ͟ɪ͟ɴ͟ɴ͟ᴇ͟ʀ͟: ����Mystik Dan <br>�� s͟ɪ͟ʀ͟ᴇ͟: ����Goldencents<br>�� ᴅ͟ᴀ͟ᴍ͟: ����Ma&#39;am<br>�� ᴅ͟ᴀ͟ᴍ͟s͟ s͟ɪ͟ʀ͟ᴇ͟: ����Colonel John <br>�� ᴊ͟ᴏ͟ᴄ͟ᴋ͟ᴇ͟ʏ͟: ����Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr<a href="https://t.co/k4OHYZxi4g">pic.twitter.com/k4OHYZxi4g</a></p>&mdash; ������ (@tetrarch1911) <a href="https://twitter.com/tetrarch1911/status/1786896579426967896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 4, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JBEX]

good pick mr gnt !