Big 3 Pic 3 (Wood, Blue Grass, SA Derby)

**JBEX** · 04-06-24, 08:40 AM

wood i'll just be rooting for deterministic..think I see something interesting in the bluegrass at a price and have to look at santa anita derby ..i'll give you something final by noon

**Pigpen** · 04-06-24, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

wood i'll just be rooting for deterministic..think I see something interesting in the bluegrass at a price and have to look at santa anita derby ..i'll give you something final by noon

**JBEX** · 04-06-24, 09:51 AM

no opinion on santa anita derby

bluegrass I'll go with

#1 top conor (15-1)

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

no opinion on santa anita derby

bluegrass I'll go with

#1 top conor (15-1)

#1 Top Conor | Debut winner cost a million so there’s got to be expectations.Unfortunately, 71h/61 NEG is a tough paceline to lure me into liking extra distance and tougher competition so I’ll have to toss him for this spin.

Predicteform's take on the #1. See what happens.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 10:24 AM

3 Seize The Grey | Bit forward-spent as a juvenile but it made for good conditioning as he showed back up as a sophomore with better developed stamina to compliment.Trajectory of his dirt spreads are tightening +8 before the break to -3 after the break to -8h most recently, which means he’s eligible to move forward with more distance.Live longshot here.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 10:24 AM

#10 Sierra Leone | Super deep dirt spreads for this one meaning excellent late speed, and he’s done it no matter the footing.Running style would be his only knock here.Dirt racing consists fundamentally of races of deceleration, and a closer can’t typically just go take a race themselves.They need some sort of help in the form of an honest race flow and not letting a runner go lone and relaxed out on a lead because you’ll never catch them no matter how loaded you are.That said, he’s the one to beat and should be roaring in stretch.I don’t mind 2/1 favoritism based on how strong he is, but if he starts getting hammered down shorter, I’ll have to look elsewhere because then there’s more opportunity on the other wide of those odds for someone to get brave here and steal the wire before he’s up.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 10:25 AM

above 2 posts is Predicteform leans #10 top choice and #3 Live shot.

**Pigpen** · 04-06-24, 10:26 AM

Wood:
#4 Deterministic
#13 Uncle Heavy

I really like how Deterministic finished in the Gotham. I think he is a serious player on the first Saturday in May. Uncle Heavy got a bad draw in this event but I think he will be running late and may be forgotten in the wagering.

Blue Grass:
#4 Dornoch
#6 Just A Touch

Love Dornoch breeding, his momma has 3 starters, all 3 are winners with 2 being stake winners. Good Magic is going to produce some big time runners IMO. Just A Touch ran a good Gotham and I hope he likes a fast track. JB, I just could bet the #1 in his second lifetime start.

Santa Anita Derby:
#3 Stronghold
#5 Wynstock

This is one I had trouble with. I threw out Wynstock's last @ Oaklawn in the slop.

Not a very well constructed ticket with a $3 base but will give me some rooting interest this afternoon. Good luck gang!!!!!!!

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 10:29 AM

GL Pigpen.

**Jellymancan** · 04-06-24, 10:37 AM

Wood

#9 Tuscan Sky, #11 Society Man

Blue Grass

#3 Seize the Day, #11 Encino, #6 Just a Touch

SA Derby

#5 Winstock, #8 EJ Won the Cup

**Pigpen** · 04-06-24, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

GL Pigpen.

You too ER!!!!!

**Pigpen** · 04-06-24, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

Wood

#9 Tuscan Sky, #11 Society Man

Blue Grass

#3 Seize the Day, #11 Encino, #6 Just a Touch

SA Derby

#5 Winstock, #8 EJ Won the Cup

Good luck Jelly!!!

**mrginandtonic** · 04-06-24, 12:56 PM

$3 ticket is kinda steep…

My picks for now

Wood

4- Deterministic (ML 7-5)
7- Merit (ML 20-1)

Blue Grass

3- Seize the Grey (ML 20-1)
8- Epic Ride (ML 20-1)
10- Sierra Leone (ML 2-1)

If anyone can pull off an upset, it will be Wayne Lukas

Santa Anita Derby

3- Stronghold (ML 5/2)
7- ** Vay (ML 5-1)

$36 for now, which I probably won’t play; if single Deterministic then $18 ticket maybe doable….

**Jellymancan** · 04-06-24, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Good luck Jelly!!!

#11 scratch in blue grass. Going to add #1 Resilence in the Wood exbox $1,4,9,11 and tribox that race.

**batt33** · 04-06-24, 01:44 PM

I have a few things going on, may come back with a small play. I like the horses already listed above!

**str** · 04-06-24, 02:01 PM

Good Luck everybody.

**batt33** · 04-06-24, 02:11 PM

Well not going too far out of the box... playing some of my future bet horses and Baffert

4- Deterministic. ....1 and 9 scare me... may use them in a p-3 or 4
with
3- Seize the Grey ..Coach racing him into shape.. rough race in the Jeff Ruby still ran 3rd
4-Dornoch..Remember what Gargan said, that Dornoch will run a lot stronger next race... show time
With
4-Imagination ... 3 Works since last race vs his normal 2 and his last work was nice!

**Jellymancan** · 04-06-24, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

#11 scratch in blue grass. Going to add #1 Resilence in the Wood exbox $1,4,9,11 and tribox that race.

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

good call Jelly I assume you had real coins down on the exbox?

**Jellymancan** · 04-06-24, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

good call Jelly I assume you had real coins down on the exbox?

Yup!

**str** · 04-06-24, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

Great job Jellyman !

**JBEX** · 04-06-24, 03:41 PM

great job and congrats jelly !! if I had to take a guess about your reason for society man part of it was that he was running in this race period ?

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-06-24, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

#11 Society Man | Three local routes have failed to produce running lines that would threaten today but I do find it interesting Gargan liked him enough to get him into a prep before breaking his maiden.

**batt33** · 04-06-24, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

Nice call Jelly! ... Unfortunately not for me.... to many other things going on....

**Jellymancan** · 04-06-24, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

great job and congrats jelly !! if I had to take a guess about your reason for society man part of it was that he was running in this race period ?

Yeah, Gargan putting him in this race was definitely interesting to me like he knew something. Personally, I love taking horses off maiden wins. The way Gargan tried him in a G2 after a decent try on a fast track previously showed me he really thinks he might have something. Not being on lasix was a concern of mine but I thought he might end up hitting the board with his closing style and the fact he’s run this distance multiple times.

**Pigpen** · 04-07-24, 05:03 AM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

I hope some tailed my pick and most importantly exbox!!

Nice call Jelly!!!! I thought he may win the thing at those odds heading for home!!!!!! Nice hit.

**Madison** · 04-07-24, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by batt33

I have a few things going on, may come back with a small play. I like the horses already listed above!

I agree. Had a lot going on and past posting. Had Buchu, but I'm just so useless with long layoffs and don't know how I could have come up with the verticals. Was on Sierra Leone, and Stronghold.

We should this more pinpointed capping more. Sorry I was absent.