kentucky derby future bet (pool 3)

[JBEX]

I'll take a guess at his derby odds..I think this is an avg at best group and if that proves itself out through the major preps I think KB's odds will be in the low teens..the slow fractions of this race will be factored in

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looks like a 98 Beyer for the King at LA Derby

[JBEX]

Looks like a 98 Beyer for the King at LA Derby

in the 1 1/8 grade 2 for older horses they ran a tick off the track record and about 9.5 seconds faster than KB going only 1/16th mile less..that has to be a huge beyer..surprised KB was that high

[JBEX]

winner was "west will power" also ridden by prat

[Easy-Rider 66]

winner was "west will power" also ridden by prat

yeah Hart had that Pony he posted him

[JBEX]

Looks like a 98 Beyer for the King at LA Derby

the hrn article had his figure at 95 and they did mention when the pace is that slow it's almost impossible to run a fast time

[Easy-Rider 66]

the hrn article had his figure at 95 and they did mention when the pace is that slow it's almost impossible to run a fast time

[JBEX]

I truly can't see KB winning the derby off his 3 races..if he can withstand a moderate to fast pace (assuming he's up close) and win or pull off a credible effort I will be very surprised..does not make sense on paper

[Easy-Rider 66]

I truly can't see KB winning the derby off his 3 races..if he can withstand a moderate to fast pace (assuming he's up close) and win or pull off a credible effort I will be very surprised..does not make sense on paper

Think Mine that Bird and Rich Strike. They did not have a chance on paper either. The King looks a lot better then they did going into the KY Derby. funny things can happen in a 20 horse race. keep the faith JBEX. you have a shot.

[JBEX]

Think Mine that Bird and Rich Strike. They did not have a chance on paper either. The King looks a lot better then they did going into the KY Derby. funny things can happen in a 20 horse race. keep the faith JBEX. you have a shot.

could do worse than coming in with a horse who won a major prep..surprises happen as you said

[Easy-Rider 66]

could do worse than coming in with a horse who won a major prep..surprises happen as you said

[JBEX]

one other scenario I thought of that I'm going to ask str about over the next couple of days..give it a rest for today

[Easy-Rider 66]

one other scenario I thought of that I'm going to ask str about over the next couple of days..give it a rest for today

OK sounds good will look for your inquiry.

[JBEX]

OK sounds good will look for your inquiry.

[JBEX]

hey pigpen

I'm going to look around the next few days or might be a week and see if I find anything on him

here are the final odds on some of the ones mentioned in here for pool 5

(boldface = bets)

forte (3-1)
practical move (12-1)
hit show (28-1) <<
kingsbarns (43-1) ## (32-1 pool 3)
disarm (60-1) **

wood memorial 4/8 <<

derby ##

probably derby (2nd to kingsbarns louisiana derby) **





..

[JBEX]

Okay JB I just placed 3 wagers in this pool:

Disarm 47-1
Eyeing Clover 71-1
Practical Move 83-1

I have a little more wagered on Practical Move. Those are current odds Sunday morning. Good luck!!!!!!!

I included "practical move" in previous post because pigpen has him from pool 3 at odds above.. we both have "disarm" but I got involved 1 pool later.. put up "forte" because he's the favorite;neither of us played him






.

[JBEX]

pool 6 this weekend.. 2 major preps in florida and arkansas


in spite of "disarm" finishing 2nd I think "jace's road" hanging in fairly well to finish 3rd was a real good effort considering the pace.. weren't going to catch kingsbarns.. I say this with the understanding that "disarm" (1 of 3 i picked .. only half unit with him) finished 2nd.. I will not be taking anymore positions as my other "hit road" goes in the wood memorial at aqueduct next weekend .. 3 is enough

[JBEX]

one other thing I just noticed that I'm amazed I wasn't aware of.. all 3 of my future bets are out of "tapit" mares.. he really is becoming (besides an elite all time sire) a major broodmare sire

[JBEX]

pool 6 this weekend.. 2 major preps in florida and arkansas


in spite of "disarm" finishing 2nd I think "jace's road" hanging in fairly well to finish 3rd was a real good effort considering the pace.. weren't going to catch kingsbarns.. I say this with the understanding that "disarm" (1 of 3 i picked .. only half unit with him) finished 2nd.. I will not be taking anymore positions as my other "hit road" goes in the wood memorial at aqueduct next weekend .. 3 is enough

hit show 28-1 (pool 5)
kingsbarns 32-1 (pool 3) would've done better later
disarm 60-1 (pool 5) half unit




.

[Pigpen]

hit show 28-1 (pool 5)
kingsbarns 32-1 (pool 3) would've done better later
disarm 60-1 (pool 5) half unit




.

Disarm 50-1
Practical Move 83-1

Those are my live plays. I have Eyeing Clover (73-1) but he is running on the under card tomorrow. Here is my question to you. Would you trade your Kingsbarns for my Practical Move ticket?

[JBEX]

Disarm 50-1
Practical Move 83-1

Those are my live plays. I have Eyeing Clover (73-1) but he is running on the under card tomorrow. Here is my question to you. Would you trade your Kingsbarns for my Practical Move ticket?

I'm guessing with this weekends futures you will be around a 10x overlay while I will be around 3 so no brainer that I would..PM has shown a lot more with what he's done and KB has much more to prove

[JBEX]

final odds of relevant horses pool 6..pigpen and i played them in earlier pools at much better odds

5/2 forte .. (favorite,not played)

11 kingsbarns .. (2nd choice by a little) jbex

14 practical move .. (5th choice) pigpen

30 hit show .. (wood next week) jbex

33 disarm ..pigpen,jbex ½ unit



.saw eyeing clover (pigpen) won the listed stakes but he won't have enough points ..wouldn't be surprised if they'll be shooting for the preakness with him




.

[Pigpen]

final odds of relevant horses pool 6..pigpen and i played them in earlier pools at much better odds

5/2 forte .. (favorite,not played)

11 kingsbarns .. (2nd choice by a little) jbex

14 practical move .. (5th choice) pigpen

30 hit show .. (wood next week) jbex

33 disarm ..pigpen,jbex ½ unit



.saw eyeing clover (pigpen) won the listed stakes but he won't have enough points ..wouldn't be surprised if they'll be shooting for the preakness with him




.

Hey JBEX, I too watched the Eyeing Clover race. He ran a creditable race beating the even money favorite but I think he is a notch below the horses you have listed above. I think we have a legit shot to cash a ticket on May 6. Forte won but he did not scare me away with his Florida Derby effort.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX, I too watched the Eyeing Clover race. He ran a creditable race beating the even money favorite but I think he is a notch below the horses you have listed above. I think we have a legit shot to cash a ticket on May 6. Forte won but he did not scare me away with his Florida Derby effort.

should have been more specific as I didn't watch the race but saw the result..might turn out to be a nice horse down the road but didn't work out for the derby..trainer probably did the prudent thing running him in the easier spot


just because there's so many things that can go wrong you always have a shot in the derby..I agree we have some talented horses .. looking forward to see "hit show" in the wood next saturday




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[Pigpen]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/267819/connections-of-disarm-considering-running-in-lexington

[JBEX]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...g-in-lexington

lets hope pigpen ..some shot better than none..find out tomorrow

[JBEX]

I think he'd run a big race..stuck behind the KB slow pace last race and facing competition a notch below the best

[Pigpen]

I think he'd run a big race..stuck behind the KB slow pace last race and facing competition a notch below the best

I may be wrong but if 3rd awards six points that will get him in the top 20. He is very interesting with his pedigree and they may think he has a shot trying to qualify for the KD. I like it.

[JBEX]

I may be wrong but if 3rd awards six points that will get him in the top 20. He is very interesting with his pedigree and they may think he has a shot trying to qualify for the KD. I like it.

it's 20-8-4-2 pigpen so he would have to finish 2nd to qualify..baffert,mott and cox all have viable contenders imo but like his chances for a top two finish

[Easy-Rider 66]

• Let The Game Of Musical Jockeys Begin: Prat Confirmed To Ride Angel Of Empire In Kentucky Derby

[Pigpen]

it's 20-8-4-2 pigpen so he would have to finish 2nd to qualify..baffert,mott and cox all have viable contenders imo but like his chances for a top two finish

I think running 3rd will qualify him. The points changed a tad this year as the Lexington awards points in the following order: 20-8-6-4-2

[Pigpen]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/prep-races

[JBEX]

• Let The Game Of Musical Jockeys Begin: Prat Confirmed To Ride Angel Of Empire In Kentucky Derby

not a big surprise to me as nobody can understand how slow it was on the front end of the la derby than prat..also brad cox is a big operation..have a hunch if AOE was trained by someone less prominent he may have stuck with KB ...still would've been a positive had he decided to stay aboard

I think running 3rd will qualify him. The points changed a tad this year as the Lexington awards points in the following order: 20-8-6-4-2

I missed the points for 3rd..you're right that 3rd would do it

[str]

• Let The Game Of Musical Jockeys Begin: Prat Confirmed To Ride Angel Of Empire In Kentucky Derby

I was expecting that.

G-2 vs. G-1 horses. Very little second guessing with this decision. The other way around would have people questioning his move.

He also is riding the favorite for Cox in the Oaks.

Doubt it hurts Kingsbarns chances as he has had a different rider for every race he has run.

We should find out who rides him soon.

[Easy-Rider 66]

not a big surprise to me as nobody can understand how slow it was on the front end of the la derby than prat..also brad cox is a big operation..have a hunch if AOE was trained by someone less prominent he may have stuck with KB ...still would've been a positive had he decided to stay aboard




I missed the points for 3rd..you're right that 3rd would do it

I was expecting that.

G-2 vs. G-1 horses. Very little second guessing with this decision. The other way around would have people questioning his move.

He also is riding the favorite for Cox in the Oaks.

Doubt it hurts Kingsbarns chances as he has had a different rider for every race he has run.

We should find out who rides him soon.

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THX for your takes STR and JBEX