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any thoughts regarding the race feel free to post in hereComment -
not playing any horse coming out of derby as I want somebody fresh and figure-wise this is a slow group
bourbon war
$410k weanling purchase.. must've been some kind of buzz about him to pay that much before he's a year old.. 5 career races.. 2 wins and a close 2nd when he wasn't pace compromised..he ran a figure in the remsen as a 2yo at 1 1/8 miles that was as good as most of these and more importantly he was closing into a pace that was 7-8 lengths slow which is very tough to overcome.. the winning figure in the remsen was higher than any of the 3yo's ran this year...the pace he was closing into in his last race (florida derby) was even slower (about 12 lengths below par) as I've mentioned before in my thread not too long ago.. only two races he's run fresh he's won.. breaking his maiden first out and his 3yo debut.. btw the layoff from the remsen to his 3yo debut was 48 days.. the layoff from his last race in the florida derby to the date of the preakness will be 49 days.. trainer is 5/46 in graded stakes but the avg win price is around $22 so he can surprise on occasion
doubt this will change even if he doesn't draw greatLast edited by JBEX; 05-08-19, 07:23 PM.Comment -
now THERES something u wont find in the program (very easily comprehended anyway)
THANKS for the info.
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np cecil.. try to dig a little for stuff and put it together ...think it's more a case of what's important to you as handicapper and what is possibly overlooked a bit by the public..have one other I like but prefer to take a stand with 1 horse.. see what happensComment -
Looks to be some speed with the new shooters....maybe get some value on Baffert and a few others with WOW getting overbet...interesting raceComment -
I was going to take SIGNALMAN if he went into the derby so i have to take him here right?Comment -
I would tend to agree with that.. you get a similar distance, couple of extra weeks and less potential traffic problems.. on the other hand if you did see something you liked better when you include the new shooters there'd be nothing wrong with changing your mind.. but the way your presenting it (had your mind made up well before the derby..probably after the bluegrass) I would stick with signalman
on a separate note,since you brought it up, he would be my other horse for a smaller bet (half)Comment -
I thought his bluegrass was sneaky good as he was closer to pace then normally BUT i downgraded him since the bluegrass looks like a dud race now...He is definitely I use underneath in exotics....The more I look at this race the weaker it looks and Baffert looks like a solid chalk and may romp esp if track is dryComment -
I always look at all the races and some of the things I like about him are
able to win at saratoga as a 2yo @ 7f in his 2nd start .. sloppy,slow start cd in debut still got 2nd
his next 3 starts which finished his 2yo season all big efforts from extreme posts in very big fields.. i consider the rail in a 13 + horse field in a route as a 2yo not the easiest of assignments
fountain of youth was dull with no apparent excuse but the bluegrass was a solid effort and he was up close to a fast pace by the brisnet figures
as far as baffert's I think he has the best resume for sure but still want to try to beat him.. think he'll be around 3-1Comment -
I honestly think, looking at it again, 3-1 is way too high.. think more around what you said ..don't think he'll be over 2-1.. I do feel he's shown the most of this group and can understand not getting fancy and sticking with him.. key him in exotics stuff like that..if I cover mine in exactas it will be with himComment -
I’ve been looking at form and listening to some guys I respect like Jeff Siegel and Aaron V and I’m jumping off improbable due to the California issues, no wins this year and seeming lack of late kick plus will be big fav......I am also tossing WOW and then Maryland based horse since no Maryland bred has won for many many years and never a woman trainer a triple crown race.....I’ve got it down to both the cox horses the synthetic specialist w Ortiz and Hennig horse with other Ortiz....maybe do some doubles and pic 3 or 4 with themComment -
I think contenders are deep in this race and ultimately I'm going with things that I weigh a little heavier than others.. improbable has been so consistent and the derby effort wasn't horrible besides it being on an off track.. owendale would make my top 5 and other would be code of honor.. i'm going to stick with my original #2 bourbon war but feel you could make cases for many of themComment -
Owendale is wise guy horse and i have head some sharps say hes 3rd choice in wagering as low as 5/1 maybe....hes one i useComment -
here's how I see owendale
debut ok..
adds blinks,rail break,big field,slow pace,very wide trip and a run line that suggests he wants more ground..
maiden breaker indiana..slow fig,blocked stretch but did what needed to be done
like the next try at churchill..on the front end of a fair pace and held pretty well..considering the maiden breaker at a 2nd tier track ..big figure improvement
next 2 at fairgrounds self explanatory ..both races were fair paces and the 2nd one was a figure in the neighborhood of what's needed to win this
2 back in the risen star toss..extremely wide trip
lexington win last out could get it done here..figure good enough and closed into a fair (not fast) pace
overall like the progression..logical steps forward all the way up to his best effort which was his last race
brad cox has incredible results with shippers and repeat winners over an enormous sample of races..one of the best trainers in the game imo
but i'm still betting bourbon war lol !!Last edited by JBEX; 05-16-19, 09:25 PM.Comment
