JBEX, I can do Friday and/or Saturday this week. Good for you? I think we should stay away from the Oaks and Derby as our pick of the week cuz I’m sure there will be discussion or new thread in this forum. We can definitely discuss in this thread too, but think it should not be pick of the week. Your thought??
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if you want to do both days that's fine.. kind of a special week so why not.. I agree the derby and oaks we'll leave out of our choices as they'll be plenty of talk about that.. lots of good races to choose from whether you do churchill or go elsewhere..it'll be churchill or belmont for meComment -
Most likely Churchill for me tooComment -
looks dry for oaks and derby day..i'll try to have my races up the night before for both.. if you can't no problem but I should be able toComment -
I should be able to have something posted. I’m off Thursday and Friday and may have to work SaturdayComment -
mrgnt..if you want to do a race thursday i'm game..you can pick one and I won't ..no problem if you can'tComment -
well after I just said thursday I looked at it and capped it..
going to go with the 9-royal son (12-1)
not really a lot to break down here as the horse just flat out runs big every time..like his slightly off the pace running style..listed stakes the perfect level for him without biting into too much vs graded stakes horses..
his last race I really love and it's one where he finished 4th..the pace was tepid according to brisnet figures and he ran a perfectly even line mid pack getting a wide trip vs listed stakes horses at turfway park..this race is not as bad to me as it might look to the public which of course will get me some value
another I like as a bomb is the 10-dimension (20-1)
using these criteria..
turf
middle distance
good or better track
leave out the grade 1 shadwell mile which is only fair..
7/2/2016 grade 2 @ 1 mile woodbine
pace was very fast and he was on average 2 lengths off of it at the first two calls
ODDS 17.55-1 WINNER
12/16/2017 listed stakes @ 8.5f fairgrounds
ODDS 39.90-1 WINNERLast edited by JBEX; 05-01-18, 07:50 PM.Comment -
You saw what I saw.... lol.... I guess we just have to agree on this one. I like the 9- Royal Son (ML 12-1) a lot. His record on grass may deter some people for he is 0 for 7. He ran three times at Churchill's turf and he placed once and show once. He has some very good numbers on turf, very consistent. The most recent two win were from tactical style, not too far and not too close to the front runners. Although they were on synthetic surface, but I think he can translate well on the turf. Think a mile is his perfect distance. His trainer has some very good numbers with turf and routes. I expect a good effort from him. At 12-1 ML, I think he's a worth a few dollars. Now, the only problem is.... I see it and you see it.... I think everyone will see it too. So.....
As for the 10, he can pop on occasion, but I really think his golden days are a thing of the past....
My other long shot is actually the 2-Colonelsdarktemper (ML 10-1), this is his first turf start; his grand sire is Tiznow which is the sire for the 9-Royal Son, and of Sweet Temper (Stormy Atlantic). He has speed with his cozy inside post, I think he will try to wire the field. He has been competing against graded companies so I think this is actually a class relief. At 10-1 and I think he will be even higher at post time, I will most likely put a few dollars on him too.
Guess I will watch the tote to decide how I want to play this race. GLComment -
have to agree you will not see 12-1 on royal son and if he is that's a bad sign..
on your 2-colonelsdarktemper it's tough for me to play a horse with no turf races prior at this level of competition..
the turf pedigree is above average and he has competed vs graded stakes horses on the dirt so that's a positive..not enough for me but heck that's the great thing about doing this..seeing other people's perspective
I don't think the 10-dimension is over the hill..he won 2 back as a 9yo and the other race i pointed out as an 8yo..he's
campaigned sparingly because of his age
but think he's still capable..he started off around this time last year
you picked a great betting race and was fun capping it..let's get royal son home !Comment -
Really Really disappointed in 9- Royal Son..... never got involved.
2- Colonelsdarktemper tried, came in fourth.....Comment -
mrgnt. .i'll put something up tonight for tomorrow's cardComment -
ChurchHill R11: $10 Exacta 10 over 2,7,13,14 & Trifecta 2,7,10,13,14 over 10,13 over 2,3,4,5,7,10,11,12,13,14Comment -
R1 #8 honorable treasure (8-1)
I think this horse is capable of running his 2nd career start at saratoga which would get it done here l..
race 1 ..2yo broke from rail 2 turn grass race in july ..tough
race 2 ..wins by 6 @ 7f with big final figure..2nd place horse comes back to win
race 3..grade 1 champagne..close to very fast pace between horses and finishes 6th in a field of 12..top 3 running in the derby toda
race 4.. another race close to a fast pace..a length off at the 7f mark in a mile race so involved longer here than the champagne
race 5 ..listed stakes at turfway (synthetic) for his first race as a 3yo..even race mid pack which is fine considering the layoff and surface
race 6 (last race)..breaks in the air from the 11 post at keeneland and runs another even mid pack race..think 3rd off a 4+month layoff
he might be ready for a big effort like his 2nd race
other pick
R7 #6 proctor's ledge (12-1)
mrgnt..if you can't get to this one no problem as it's an early startComment -
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Nice one JBex, scored at 6-1, bet down from 12-1.... don’t know how I missed the action on that one.Comment -
Love that you guys are doing this..
I wander on and read and your insights or see something I don't normally look at..
Best of luck to both of you and everyone else that enjoys and takes this seriously as a money investment..
It can be done...
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Thank you so much for checking in. Like I always say, feel free to give your opinion and analysis anytime. The more the better, we are all here to try to make a few $$.Comment -
thanks for the positve feedback..if you have an opinion on one of our races ,as mgnt said, feel free to commentComment -
Think I will take a stab at the Black Eye Susan today. I didn’t even look at the form for Pimlico cuz all the bad weather. And I hate going through he form and find out that the horse that you picked is scratched. Be back in a bit.Comment -
PIM Race 11- The Black Eye Susan
My pick will be the 9- Sara Street (ML 4-1). I like the fact that her Beyer figures improved tremendously since she was stretched out. She is a forwardly placing filly that I believe runs better if she sits just off the leader. Therefore, I believe she will be just right behind the 1 and 7, tracking them and taking over in the final turn. She is by Street Sense (Street Cry) and out of Sara Lousie (Malibu Moon), I expect a wet track should be ok with her. To complete the exacta, I will use the 4- Red Ruby only because she seems to like the sloppy track where she won before. GL all.Comment -
My race of the week will be The Preakness. Should have my pick by tonight or tomorrow morning.
And it will not be Justify.Comment -
2018 Preakness
Ok, let’s talk about The Preakness. No doubt Justify is the horse to beat. Can any of his rivals beat him? Most likely not. So why bother doing a write up? I am writing this after I saw a 4 yr filly that ran 50 times in less than two years. This got me thinking about Justify. I think that the only one that can beat Justify is Justify. What do I mean by that? I think Justify can only be beaten is that the rigors of racing has finally taken its toll. The first race of his career was February 18 this year and tomorrow will be his fifth race in a short three months. All his races aren’t exactly easy and he has been amazing. As brilliant as he has been, I think he maybe a little bit tired. Yes, he set crazy fractions in the Derby and gave him a good reason for his slow fractions at the end. His final time was 2:04; not exactly what I was expecting from him. And I think the fast fractions that he set took a lot more out of him that most people think.
So who am I gonna pick? I won’t pick Good Magic either because as tired as Justify was, he could not get to him. Initially, I like the 2- Lone Sailor to come second, but watching today’s races and watch the Derby again, I don’t think he has a chance. So my crazy pick will be: 4- Diamond King (ML 30-1). Yes, Diamond King, a horse that has not run higher than 84 Beyer speed figure. Although I use Beyer speed numbers a lot , but I think in his case, his number maybe misleading. If we look as his fractions, his times are just as fast as most of these. This will be his second race off a short layoff so I expect him to move forward. Servis is a capable trainer who can win the Preakness and we all know Castellano is a great rider as well. Diamond King is by Quality Road (Elusive Quality) and out of Akron Moon (Malibu Moon) so wet track should not be a problem either. I think Justify, Sporting Chance and Good Magic will go at it early and Diamond King should be stalking those three. If he can raise his Beyer about 15 points like he did after his maiden start, he will be in the thick of it.
I hope that Justify will win and bid for that Triple Crown for Baffert, but with those odds, I will take a chance on a long shot. Most likely I am all wrong about this (because as of 5pm early betting on the Preakness, he is 70-1, lol) and Justify wins easy. I will definitely use him in the late pick 4’s but I will also include the 4- Diamond King. One interest note that I read is that in early betting, Justify is 1-1 and Tenfold is 2-1, and Good Magic is 9-1..... HmmComment -
DIAMOND KING (30-1):While he didn’t run badly in the Federico Tesio, his winning performance was not nearly strong enough to suggest that he can compete against the top 3-year-olds in the nation going two turns. It’s a shame that he’s running here because Diamond King is actually a pretty talented sprinter who is missing opportunities to shine. He ran an amazing race to win the Heft Stakes back in December and was hindered by a poor start two back in the Swale. He’s probably going to play the role of Promises Fulfilled in this race, and that hasn’t been a successful strategy against a fast horse like Justify. Timeform's TakeComment
